EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

It could weaken by 20 kt and would still be a Cat 5.

[HurricaneRyan]

Patricia strengthening so quickly...the EPAC's equivalent of Wilma.

[psyclone]

a 160 kt landfall would be a total wipeout. a true "run for your life" storm.

[supercane4867]

Saved image

[northjaxpro]

It could weaken by 20 kt and would still be a Cat 5.

This is true. A modest weakening of 20-30 kts in intensity still would make Patricia an extremely dangerous Cat 4/low end 5 cyclone. It would have to weaken much more considerably to be at Cat 3 level for EWRC, still a major hrricane. This shows just how powerful she has become currently.

[1900hurricane]

Anyone know the the highest flight-level winds from Megi? If not, I'll go dig it up for the comparison.

[Yellow Evan]

EWRC could also be bad for Mexico since it would expand the RMW. Arguably worse if there was no ERC at all, since the core is tight and would affect fairly few people.

[CrazyC83]

Anyone know the the highest flight-level winds from Megi? If not, I'll go dig it up for the comparison.

193 kt I believe.

[Cyclenall]

28°C inside the eye per VDM. I believe this is the second highest measured eye temp by recon in W hemisphere only behind Rita

Darn, that's mind-boggling too!! Shoot!!

They are holding 160kt all the way to landfall...

That's got to be a new record too for forecasting, never seen anything like that ever for the western hemisphere!! Any more shockers for the night? Probably!

[Kingarabian]

Anyone know the the highest flight-level winds from Megi? If not, I'll go dig it up for the comparison.

190kts is what I found? This is when they found the pressure to be 893mb. But lowest pressure was 885mb.

Product: Vortex Message (URPA12 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°01'N 125°05'E (18.0167N 125.0833E) (View map)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,151m (7,057ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 266° at 152kts (From the W at ~ 174.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 893mb (26.37 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE EYEWALL

[northjaxpro]

Recon about to do their second pass.

[Kingarabian]

Second fix is on the way.

[supercane4867]

I think Pasch may meant it's unprecedented for a tropical cyclone in W. hemisphere

[bahamaswx]

CDO warmed a lot out of nowhere in that last frame

[1900hurricane]

Anyone know the the highest flight-level winds from Megi? If not, I'll go dig it up for the comparison.

190kts is what I found? This is when they found the pressure to be 893mb. But lowest pressure was 885mb.

Product: Vortex Message (URPA12 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°01'N 125°05'E (18.0167N 125.0833E) (View map)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,151m (7,057ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 266° at 152kts (From the W at ~ 174.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 893mb (26.37 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE EYEWALL

Yeah, found 190 kt on the 890 mb pass too. Patricia is definitely in the same league.

*EDIT because eventually I'll get the URL code correct.

[talkon]

I just noticed the 05:15Z pic shows cloud tops warming. Is that a bug or is it starting to weaken?

[wxmann_91]

CDO warmed a lot out of nowhere in that last frame

Probably a satellite artifact, not actual CDO warming.

[supercane4867]

It should be peaking right now anyway. The eye has contracted to as small as it can get

[Kingarabian]

May have strengthened. 998mb and far from the center.

[HurricaneRyan]

Mess. People on ATRL were saying Adele was like a Category 5 hurricane, not realizing Patricia exists