EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

Cyclenall · #641 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:25 am

Kingarabian wrote:
RL3AO wrote:880/175kt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!1

I'm shaking!!!!!!! :eek:

I want to take these insane HDOBS and put them into a wallpaper image, just some of the most insane data points ever seen! The NHC now has the highest windspeed intensity for any tropical cyclone they have ever issued or anyone in my lifetime!! Hell, it even looks like those NRL images are not showing Patricia's cloud tops correctly anymore because this storm is off into a new dimension!!! :double:

xtyphooncyclonex · #642 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:25 am

Now smashed Haiyan by 5 kts. Glad internet came back and if not, I would have never known ahead of this since the news is behind. What a monster!

#643 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:26 am

Its hard not to extrapolate the final pressure to the 870s. It was dropped 4mb/hr over past 3 hours before recon left.

#644 Postby **Extratropical94** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:27 am

Now everyone's staring at the NHC to wait and see the 200.

supercane4867 · #645 Postby **supercane4867** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:28 am

If anything it's still intensifying

#646 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:28 am

BTW last sounding showed a temp of 32°C at 758mb and ~29°C at 700mb.

#647 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:29 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
RL3AO wrote:880/175kt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!1

I'm shaking!!!!!!! I want to take these insane HDOBS and put them into a wallpaper image, just some of the most insane data points ever seen! The NHC now has the highest windspeed intensity for any tropical cyclone they have ever issued or anyone in my lifetime!! Hell, it even looks like those NRL images are not showing Patricia's cloud tops correctly anymore because this storm is off into a new dimension!!!

I'm lost for words, really.

#648 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:30 am

supercane4867 wrote:If anything it's still intensifying

Not even a blink, just continues to plow along

Cyclenall · #649 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:33 am

supercane4867 wrote:I can stay up all night waiting for 5AM advisory. This is a once in life time event

If I had work starting about now I wouldn't go, that's how insane and historic this all is, where do you even start? I bet the NHC doesn't even know, they are likely shocked to the science core.

Kingarabian wrote:Man but I honestly think it's 180kts....

I believe so as well.

This is right up there as one of the most insane weather occurrences I've seen in my whole life, and that is NOT a light thing!!

#650 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:33 am

RL3AO wrote:BTW last sounding showed a temp of 32°C at 758mb and ~29°C at 700mb.

Looks like recon got there an hour too early.

supercane4867 · #651 Postby **supercane4867** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:34 am

RL3AO wrote:Its hard not to extrapolate the final pressure to the 870s. It was dropped 4mb/hr over past 3 hours before recon left.

Unfortunately NHC likely won't go that low as no further evidence with recon left. Every satellite estimate needs to be tossed now

EquusStorm · #652 Postby **EquusStorm** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:35 am

If anything the symmetry has only increased in the last few frames. Really wish they had a second plane out there on the way. :eek:

Hammy · #653 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:35 am

Last frame seems to show a slight northward turn. Eye could be bouncing around though similarly to Wilma.

#654 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:36 am

Cyclenall wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I can stay up all night waiting for 5AM advisory. This is a once in life time event

If I had work starting about now I wouldn't go, that's how insane and historic this all is, where do you even start? I bet the NHC doesn't even know, they are likely shocked to the science core.

Kingarabian wrote:Man but I honestly think it's 180kts....

I believe so as well.

This is right up there as one of the most insane weather occurrences I've seen in my whole life, and that is NOT a light thing!!

The person at the NHC entering the intermediate advisory data in ACTF serve must have started shaking when he/she entered 175kts and 880mb.

1900hurricane · #655 Postby **1900hurricane** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:39 am

supercane4867 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Its hard not to extrapolate the final pressure to the 870s. It was dropped 4mb/hr over past 3 hours before recon left.

Unfortunately NHC likely won't go that low as no further evidence with recon left. Every satellite estimate needs to be tossed now

I'm not so sure that will be the case, at least for the postseason. NHC did give Wilma 2 mb below the 884 sonde measurement after recon left. With us already at 880 mb, any similar move puts us into the 870s.

#656 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:39 am

Kingarabian wrote:The person at the NHC entering the intermediate advisory data in ACTF serve must have started shaking when he/she entered 175kts and 880mb.

Eric Blake had some very emotional tweets.

#657 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:45 am

Last pass in eastern eyewall has a 32mb pressure gradient over 4.5 km. :double:

#658 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:48 am

Patricia could weaken 35 knots, and it would STILL! be a Category 5...that is a scary thought.

1900hurricane · #659 Postby **1900hurricane** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:49 am

I can't say that I ever thought I'd have a hurricane that is in all likelihood within 10 mb of Tip's record sitting so close to me. Just mindwarping.

#660 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:49 am

But really. The winds should be set at 180kts and unless something warming of the CDO occurs, the pressure should be lower than 880.

EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

Beyond insane and then beyond some more!

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