EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Only 15 hours to landfall...

[Kingarabian]

That CDO seems to be stuck in stone and not budging. Since the eye + its eyewall being so small, how likely is it that Patricia does NOT undergo an ERC?

[brunota2003]

It would not surprise me if they went with 180 and 878 at 5 am...just given that the pressure was falling the entire mission, and several SMFR readings of 179-182, plus the 192 knot flight level winds as the plane departed. I don't think they'll take the pressure any lower than 878, though.

Note: just my opinion...

[EquusStorm]

Gonna sleep for a little while waiting on the advisory in an hour, but my goodness. As horrified as I am for those in its path (though knowing it's liable to weaken a bit before landfall) I feel a sort of honored humility to have been online and in forums watching the recon data come in live. It's something I may never experience again even if I live to be a hundred, and for a weather dork, there are few more jaw-dropping experiences than witnessing the realization of a sub-885 wHEM TC.

Say farewell to Patricia on the 2021 list already, and hope strongly that its retirement is more for meteorological superlative reasons than for damage. Or at the very least, that this incredible intensity convinces stragglers to evacuate...

The 5AM discussion is going to be historic.

[RL3AO]

29C at 700mb. That is probably more absurd than the wind or pressure. Maybe the warmest 700mb temp recorded on earth.

[Yellow Evan]

That CDO seems to be stuck in stone and not budging. Since the eye + its eyewall being so small, how likely is it that Patricia does NOT undergo an ERC?

EPAC storms can be ERC resilient to some extent.

[Kingarabian]

Gonna sleep for a little while waiting on the advisory in an hour, but my goodness. As horrified as I am for those in its path (though knowing it's liable to weaken a bit before landfall) I feel a sort of honored humility to have been online and in forums watching the recon data come in live. It's something I may never experience again even if I live to be a hundred, and for a weather dork, there are few more jaw-dropping experiences than witnessing the realization of a sub-885 wHEM TC.

Say farewell to Patricia on the 2021 list already, and hope strongly that its retirement is more for meteorological superlative reasons than for damage. Or at the very least, that this incredible intensity convinces stragglers to evacuate...

The 5AM discussion is going to be historic.

With Megi, Haiyan, and now Patricia it seems as if 200mph storms are becoming a norm now...

[supercane4867]

Any clues on who will be writing the 5AM discussion?

[1900hurricane]

That CDO seems to be stuck in stone and not budging. Since the eye + its eyewall being so small, how likely is it that Patricia does NOT undergo an ERC?

Nuri last year (which I still think is Patricia's closest structure/intensity analog) held off for quite a while. I'm not saying Patricia won't, but in theory, it could still wait a little bit. Too bad all we have right now is the low-res METOP-A pass, but it doesn't look too suggestive of an outer eyewall taking over yet.

[Kingarabian]

29C at 700mb. That is probably more absurd than the wind or pressure. Maybe the warmest 700mb temp recorded on earth.

If you take that 29C reading @ 700mb and convert it to normal pressure, how high would the temp be?

[Kingarabian]

Any clues on who will be writing the 5AM discussion?

Hope it's Stewart. He's usually the less conservative one with well detailed discussions.

[hurricaneCW]

Now the only question is strength at landfall. The faster it makes landfall, the stronger it'll be. There's honestly only 12-15 hrs left if not less if she turns more to the right so it'll be a close call. I'm thinking it'll still be a Cat 5 (borderline) at landfall.

[supercane4867]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 175 190 187 166 139 92 63 46 36 32 24 20 20
V (KT) LAND 175 190 187 147 105 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 175 174 159 142 92 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 1 4 11 18 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 0 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 118 184 180 203 241 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 172 173 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 63 58 56 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 20 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 72 72 92 113 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 103 111 94 76 61 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -8 -8 -8 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 291 213 130 -6 -62 -361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.8 21.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.2 104.6 102.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 65 68 33 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

You don't see 200kt on model guidance chart very often

[Yellow Evan]

Any clues on who will be writing the 5AM discussion?

Hope it's Stewart. He's usually the less conservative one with well detailed discussions.

Pasch did the special and Cangolis did the EPAC TWO. I heard there are 5 ppl on shift. I don't know if that includes TAFB or not.

[Extratropical94]

29C at 700mb. That is probably more absurd than the wind or pressure. Maybe the warmest 700mb temp recorded on earth.

If you take that 29C reading @ 700mb and convert it to normal pressure, how high would the temp be?

Given that the corresponding altidude was ~2100m, with dry-adiabatic sinking and heating this would be 50C at the surface.

[1900hurricane]

29C at 700mb. That is probably more absurd than the wind or pressure. Maybe the warmest 700mb temp recorded on earth.

If you take that 29C reading @ 700mb and convert it to normal pressure, how high would the temp be?

Theta would be about 333 K, so roughly 60*C at 1000 mb.

[Kingarabian]

29C at 700mb. That is probably more absurd than the wind or pressure. Maybe the warmest 700mb temp recorded on earth.

If you take that 29C reading @ 700mb and convert it to normal pressure, how high would the temp be?

Theta would be about 333 K, so roughly 60*C at 1000 mb.

Wow.

Patricia's Dvorak presentation is not letting up:

[Yellow Evan]

ADT still going quite strong.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 16:39:07 N Lon : 105:30:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 910.9mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.7 8.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch