EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

Kind of overdoing it, aren't you?

[cycloneye]

Would be nice to have another plane in just around landfall.

There will be a plane this afternoon.

[TheProfessor]

sure is a real beauty, if only she were out at sea.

[SouthDadeFish]

The sobering part about this is the fact that we have a 200 mph hurricane less than 24 hours from landfall. Unless something drastically changes between now and then, portions of the Mexican coast will experience Haiyan-like damage. This is an absolute disaster. It's one thing to see a hurricane bomb out in the middle of the Caribbean Sea like Wilma did, but it's another thing to see 200 mph slapped onto a track ~18 hours from landfall. I truly hope those in the path of the storm have evacuated or are in some very strong shelters.

An eyewall replacement cycle just prior to landfall could be incredibly beneficial to Mexico.

[SouthDadeFish]

Cloud top temperatures in the outer bands seem to be warming as the CDO maintains/strengthens in this giant buzzsaw of destruction:

[northjaxpro]

Kind of overdoing it, aren't you?

No I am not. I meant every word in my post in all sincerity.

[Alyono]

probably peaking now. Not quite as symmetrical

[WeatherGuesser]

portions of the Mexican coast will experience Haiyan-like damage. This is an absolute disaster.

Do we have anything on the population and infrastructure there? All I've seen so far is that it's a lesser populated area.

[Annie Oakley]

I agree with northjaxpro and the 'wow' factor of Patricia. I just hope and pray people in Mexico can be spared too much damage.

[Kingarabian]

ADT CI is at 7.9. Soon will be 8.0 and that will close the book. I'm thinking that the NHC will go ahead and bump the storm to its deserving 180kts.

[Ken Lucas]

How much rain is this forecasted to bring to parts of Texas?

[SouthDadeFish]

portions of the Mexican coast will experience Haiyan-like damage. This is an absolute disaster.

Do we have anything on the population and infrastructure there? All I've seen so far is that it's a lesser populated area.

From what I'm seeing the region SE of Puerto Vallarta is less densely populated, but I would imagine there still has to be some small villages along the coast.

[northjaxpro]

The sobering part about this is the fact that we have a 200 mph hurricane less than 24 hours from landfall. Unless something drastically changes between now and then, portions of the Mexican coast will experience Haiyan-like damage. This is an absolute disaster. It's one thing to see a hurricane bomb out in the middle of the Caribbean Sea like Wilma did, but it's another thing to see 200 mph slapped onto a track ~18 hours from landfall. I truly hope those in the path of the storm have evacuated or are in some very strong shelters.

An eyewall replacement cycle just prior to landfall could be incredibly beneficial to Mexico.

Some of us discussed this overnight. If Patricia has an EWRC upon landfall, even if she weakened by 30 Kts, she still would be a Cat 5 cyclone. This shows how super powerful Patricia is. I pray everyone along that coastal region of Mexico has gotten out that area. This just looks to be a catastrophic situation for Mexico, not just for the coast region, but for the dangerous flooding and mudslides which will be occuring inland. Praying for all down there.

[WeatherGuesser]

but I would imagine there still has to be some small villages along the coast.

And those won't be built well. Mexico is sort of known for ramshackle towns, isn't it?

I can't imagine there will be much left. Do they even have anywhere to go for shelter?

[Kingarabian]

The sobering part about this is the fact that we have a 200 mph hurricane less than 24 hours from landfall. Unless something drastically changes between now and then, portions of the Mexican coast will experience Haiyan-like damage. This is an absolute disaster. It's one thing to see a hurricane bomb out in the middle of the Caribbean Sea like Wilma did, but it's another thing to see 200 mph slapped onto a track ~18 hours from landfall. I truly hope those in the path of the storm have evacuated or are in some very strong shelters.

An eyewall replacement cycle just prior to landfall could be incredibly beneficial to Mexico.

Some of us discussed this overnight. If Patricia has an EWRC upon landfall, even if she weakened by 30 Kts, she still would be a Cat 5 cyclone. This shows how super powerful Patricia is. I pray evrryone along that coastal region of Mexico has gotten out that area.

The best thing would be is for the ERC to take place right before landfall. If that happens, then the ERC + the high terrain will likely combo Patricia and hopefully in turn reduce the intensity by a good amount.

[Kingarabian]

but I would imagine there still has to be some small villages along the coast.

And those won't be built well. Mexico is sort of known for ramshackle towns, isn't it?

I can't imagine there will be much left. Do they even have anywhere to go for shelter?

Hotel resorts that are located right on the beach.

The state of Jalisco has more than 7 million people. Fortunately, Patricia's hurricane Radii is relatively small and the severely damaging winds will be confined to the landfall point. Hopefully it hits a scarcely populated area.

[SouthDadeFish]

Something I have always wondered about landfalling cyclones on Mexico's Pacific coast is what is the significance of the dry air produced from downsloping off the Sierra Madre? I seem to recall many cyclones weakening just prior to landfall, which makes me curious if dry air is playing a role? Hopefully we can see something similar happen with Patricia.

[hurricaneCW]

An EWRC is not necessarily a good thing either as a few have stated. Sure the peak intensity would be weaker but the energy will be more widespread. Landfall less than 12 hrs away as she should accelerate and take on a slight easterly component soon.

[Kingarabian]

If I remember correctly, Haiyan rarely went under an ERC.

Maybe super storms are not prone to ERC's?

[northjaxpro]

The sobering part about this is the fact that we have a 200 mph hurricane less than 24 hours from landfall. Unless something drastically changes between now and then, portions of the Mexican coast will experience Haiyan-like damage. This is an absolute disaster. It's one thing to see a hurricane bomb out in the middle of the Caribbean Sea like Wilma did, but it's another thing to see 200 mph slapped onto a track ~18 hours from landfall. I truly hope those in the path of the storm have evacuated or are in some very strong shelters.

An eyewall replacement cycle just prior to landfall could be incredibly beneficial to Mexico.

Some of us discussed this overnight. If Patricia has an EWRC upon landfall, even if she weakened by 30 Kts, she still would be a Cat 5 cyclone. This shows how super powerful Patricia is. I pray evrryone along that coastal region of Mexico has gotten out that area.

The best thing would be is for the ERC to take place right before landfall. If that happens, then the ERC + the high terrain will likely combo Patricia and hopefully in turn reduce the intensity by a good amount.

I pray you are right. But it will take some major weakening to occur from where Patricia is currently. Even 40-50 kts of weakening would still keep Patricia as a major hurricane at landfall. It is just going to be bad unfortunately any way you shake it down.