EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

I think Patricia will be bumped up to 180 kt at the TCR, with a pressure of 877mb. But it is a matter of semantics, really. Either way, the damage will be like that of Haiyan in Tacloban.

I don't know if a storm of this intensity is even possible in the Atlantic...or in the EPAC outside a strong El Nino.

You are absolutely correct. Death is certain no matter if you are struck by debris at 200 or 210 mph.

[WeatherGuesser]

And of course, this may come in at the worst possible time of day. They'll be in it all night when they can't see anything.

[Gustywind]

Looks like a cat 6 cane Man it thing is surely insane! A cat 5 at the end of October... Nino year yeah man

[cycloneye]

If there is some good news about the landfall apart from what SouthDadeFish mentioned about eye replacement cycle that could be good is it will enter the coast not in a big populated area such like Acapulco,Manzanillo although Puerto Vallarta will get bad weather.

[northjaxpro]

Its not, you may not have been here but if you followed it since last evening it was truly among the most insane things I've ever seen in weather overall. Its definitely the most spectacular thing to happen in the Epac and in the Top 3 for the western hemisphere, Top 5 worldwide.

Yeah, that's all fine, but it sounded like the guy needed a cigarette.

I don't smoke mind you.Obviously, for some unknown reason, you have some personal issue with me. I don't know why. I treat everyone on this forum with the utmost respect and all I can say to you is God bless you. I have no ill feelings toward anyone on here. All I ask js for you to not attack me, or insult me or my character. That is not too much to ask of you is it not? Show respect to me and everyone else on this forum for that matter.

[CrazyC83]

If there is some good news about the landfall apart from what SouthDadeFish mentioned about eye replacement cycle that could be good is it will enter the coast not in a big populated area such like Acapulco,Manzanillo although Puerto Vallarta will get bad weather.

If an ERC expands its area, then those cities could experience severe damage as well.

[cycloneye]

Chaser Josh will be in the path in the town La Huerta.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone · 2m2 minutes ago  La Huerta, Jalisco
Running out of ways to express surprise. All I can say: WTF. Our spot (Perula) is directly in path of nuclear #Hurricane #PATRICIA.

[supercane4867]

Just woke up from 3 hours of sleep....I expect the pressure to be in the 870s right now. Extremely steady state with no indications of ERC starting at all

[weathernerdguy]

The area of landfall would be screwed, Rest in piece Mexico

[Ntxw]

Wow the most intense tropical cyclone in the whem ever lost no steam since recon left

[supercane4867]

Can't imagine what the next recon will found. Even Tip will be challenged at this point

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.9 / 894.7mb/167.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 8.0 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +2.1C Cloud Region Temp : -81.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[NotoSans]

FT and CI from CIMSS ADT finally reach 8.0. Wonder what will recon find at 18Z.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 17:09:32 N Lon : 105:41:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 891.3mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.1 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -81.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees

[weathernerdguy]

now if this has 200mph+ i can't imagine what STY Hayian would of had..

[WeatherGuesser]

'Nuclear'?

Really?


People need to settle down and get off the drama words. Yes, it's setting records and should be discussed. But not in an E! or TLC reality TV manner.

[SouthDadeFish]

My point about the eyewall replacement cycle was made under the assumption that during MOST eyewall replacement cycles, the tropical cyclone temporarily weakens. However, we don't really know how tropical cyclones as strong as Patricia are affected by eyewall replacement cycles due to lack of observations and an incomplete understanding of EWRCs in general. It is currently a field of intense research. IF Patricia does not weaken much during the EWRC then I agree that a EWRC may actually be a bad thing as it will indeed extend the radius of maximum winds. However, at this point, other than entraining some dry air from downsloping, I don't see much else that will cause Patricia to weaken prior to landfall in addition to an EWRC.

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, that's all fine, but it sounded like the guy needed a cigarette.

It gets even better if you read further back in this thread .

CNN had Neil on around 7:30 am EDT to talk about Patricia which was funny because he was there for something different and had to address what wild situation the hurricane world has on their hands this morning. It was unusual to say the least .

[tolakram]

'Nuclear'?

Really?


People need to settle down and get off the drama words. Yes, it's setting records and should be discussed. But not in an E! or TLC reality TV manner.

Stop with these posts would ya? I think most of us know your opinion and I don't see anyone here violating any rules so either contribute or just step away, now is not the time to start arguing about every other post.

[tolakram]

Live IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-170&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[bzukajo]

I expect this live cam to be under water soon.

http://www.cuatesycuetes.com/en/index.php/webcam

[Blown Away]

I expect this live cam to be under water soon.

http://www.cuatesycuetes.com/en/index.php/webcam

How close is this camera to the predicted landfall point?