EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

This is going to be a historical recon pass...
Wonder what it will find...870s seems possible IMO

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-170&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=yellow

[Alyono]

eye expanding. Cloud tops warming. However, eye is also warming.

Maybe be a Haiyan eyewall replacement happening. Will only serve to make the eye larger

[DukeDevil91]

Scaled image shows Haiyan was a very large storm in comparison to Patricia.

[Alyono]

Haiyan was actually a very small storm. Almost Charley sized in terms of the surface wind field

[CrazyC83]

If this grows in size including the RMW, it could be lights out for Manzanillo (I mean as in eyewall hit, not power loss).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Idk with Haiyan, it had a small RMW but TS force winds were felt in Manila and Typhoon force winds over Cebu. Tight wind gradient perhaps... That is based from PAGASA station reports and experience. I wonder about Patrici though

[1900hurricane]

At 175 kt, Patricia is generating over 3 units of ACE every six hours.

[Annie Oakley]

Web Cam in Colima.

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.p ... &streams=1

and this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n9QogL9IyE

Not working for me for some reason

try this David:
https://youtu.be/4n9QogL9IyE

[ozonepete]

I'd say Patricia has peaked and may be starting to gradually weaken.

I'd be surprised if she is still this strong later today, hopefully she's not for Mexico's sake.

Sadly it ain't weakening yet, no EWRC is soon to occur and if ever it would it would not weaken Patricia. Warming cloudtops are because of the presence of sunlight over the storm region

You can't say that. Sunlight causing warming of thunderstorm tops almost always causes weakening, even if it takes a few hours to occur. But, as 1900hurricane said, there is some speculation (due to observations) that extremely strong TCs sometimes keep most of their strength even during the dmax warming. It is not well understood yet. Meanwhile one should assume that in most cases some weakening will follow.

[Bunkertor]

Now, we sold them Mexicans tons of modern assault rifles and they don´t even allow us to watch TV for an hour

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Puerto Vallarta could see some hurricane-force winds as well as parts of Manzanillo (assuming N eyewall is stronger) but ground zero for a small town named Chamela for sure

[ozonepete]

Also, could you guys please put the disclaimer on your post if you are saying it will or won't start weakening? There may be people who get misled by your speculation.

[Annie Oakley]

link to STORM2K Hurricane Hunters Recon thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117662&start=180

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Also, could you guys please put the disclaimer on your post if you are saying it will or won't start weakening? There may be people who get misled by your speculation.

It's already embedded and attached in my signature. And, that's my opinion. Only recon can prove its intensity and whether it's weakening or not.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.2 / 884.4mb/176.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.1 7.9 7.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[ozonepete]

Also, could you guys please put the disclaimer on your post if you are saying it will or won't start weakening? There may be people who get misled by your speculation.

It's already embedded and attached in my signature. And, that's my opinion. Only recon can prove its intensity and whether it's weakening or not.

Haha this wasn't for you. You always put the disclaimer on. But there are others that don't. No worries with you at all.

[dixiebreeze]

Also, could you guys please put the disclaimer on your post if you are saying it will or won't start weakening? There may be people who get misled by your speculation.

Hope it is weakening. My daughter is right now in the path, just a bit south of Guadalajara on Lake Chapala. She was out early this a.m. for ER supplies. Somewhat protected by mountains, but will be on the right side of Patricia.

[supercane4867]

Should be at peak right now

[1900hurricane]

The eye is getting near warm-medium grey per GOES-13. 7.64*C was given out by ADT.