EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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psyclone
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#921 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:36 pm

I think of this system as a giant E-F5 tornado cloaked in a tropical storm.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#922 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:36 pm

Filipinas50 wrote:Is there a doppler radar coverage on the storms projected landfall area in Mexico, can't seem to find one online ...


No.
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#923 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:37 pm

Recon early HDOB suggest this indeed weakening.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#924 Postby Filipinas50 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:38 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Filipinas50 wrote:Is there a doppler radar coverage on the storms projected landfall area in Mexico, can't seem to find one online ...


No.


Hmmm, I'm surprised especially with Manzanillo being a major city ...
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#925 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:38 pm

may be reintensifying based upon recent satellite imagery
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#926 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:39 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Recon early HDOB suggest this indeed weakening.

Considering it's the strongest ever that's a logical outcome. but this thing is so strong it can degrade quite a bit and still remain at cat 5 intensity. can't wait for VDMs
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#927 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:40 pm

So, what do we have so far?

Lowest pressure.

Highest measure wind speed.

Won't make H5 duration. Those are in the 40 hour range.
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#928 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:40 pm

F5 key broken
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#929 Postby NotoSans » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:41 pm

Extrapolated pressure of 878.4 mb...with flight-level winds of 191 kt and SFMR winds of 161 kt

173330 1809N 10514W 7085 01937 8784 +279 +069 213041 064 077 001 03
173430 1807N 10511W 7018 02441 9214 +203 +155 206181 191 161 005 00
Last edited by NotoSans on Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#930 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:41 pm

878
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#931 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:41 pm

Seems to be wobbling north again.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-170&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow
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#932 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:42 pm

may be 870mbish based upon recon. This is Tip territory
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#933 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:42 pm

173230 1811N 10518W 6663 02584 8957 +160 //// 051106 143 100 011 05
173300 1810N 10516W 7100 01924 8795 +274 +110 032022 044 061 000 03
173330 1809N 10514W 7085 01937 8784 +279 +069 213041 064 077 001 03
173400 1808N 10513W 7029 02129 8934 +206 +167 211129 164 166 000 00
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#934 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:43 pm

Wow.has not weakened.
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#935 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:43 pm

191kt flight level wind
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#936 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:43 pm

03 = SFMR parameter(s) questionable
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#937 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:43 pm

191 flight winds and 166 SMFR. Is that even the strongest section of the storm?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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#938 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:43 pm

Based on the fact Recon likely missed the core, I estimate about 874 mb. Winds likely down a bit to 170 kt.
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#939 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:44 pm

878 extrap with 64 knot winds supports 872ish. Wait for dropsonde.
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#940 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:44 pm

NE quad is likely where the strongest winds are and it hasn't been sampled yet.
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