Sad news=23 deaths blamed on Isabel

[stormywind88]

Thank you all for the info. Dad is Ok he was just helping out with storm clean up.. I hope that everyone here and there familys are safe and well.

[HurricaneQueen]

Stormywind: you might want to try this link to a local paper- It list all news papers by state. May even help some other looking for information about a certain region. Good Luck.

http://www.newspaperlinks.com/newspaperlist.cfm

[themusk]

Sorry, Cycloneye, I didn't see your post and just posted something similar. $However, I'm also pondering what could have been said/done differently in advance of the storm that would have spared these lives.

That's the $64,000 question that hazards researchers are asking themselves all the time. A few deaths are unavoidable. Some deaths could be avoided through better engineering. Many deaths can be prevented by more effectively communicating to people that there exists a hazard, and what they need to do to protect themselves from the hazard.

The latter is much more complicated than it seems at first. People are not automatons-- you can't issue a command and get immediate 100% compliance. People won't act to protect themselves unless they're sure the warning is valid-- and that tendency sometimes causes people actually putting themselves in danger, such as when some persons, after a fire alarm, go look for the fire rather than leave the building. The best warnings explain the hazard, and tell why persons should take action.

Getting people to heed warnings is complicated by conflicting messages, such as the nonverbal message given out by reporters standing on the beach in the storm. The nonverbal message? "This is great fun! And look at me, I'm perfectly safe! ". It's complicated by the human tendency, under stress, to adhire strictly to routine-- to, say, open up the coffee shop on the barrier island and treat the day as if it was any other day. It's complicated by poor planning policies that don't make provisions for the evacuation and sheltering of family pets (a very high percentage of persons who stay behind in an emergency do so because they can't find anywhere to take their pets, and they won't leave their pets behind-- IMO this problem won't be resolved until emergency action plans routinely include provisions for pet sheltering).

The complications go on and on-- we humans are very complicated beings. But do know there are hazards researchers who are, every day, trying to understand our twists and foibles so that we'll act the way we need to in a crisis. And the researchers are making progress.

I can't help but think of the recommendations made by some of the amazing people I once worked with, in the aftermath of the deadly Big Thompson Flood, to post signs in Colorado's canyons that say (paraphrasing-- it's been years since I've seen one) "in case of flooding, climb up". They seem ridiculously self-evident-- in fact, they're the kind of things researchers are often mocked for proposing. But a lot of people didn't climb up during the flood, and they drowned. Those simple signs specifically target an identified need for clear instructions during the stress of rising floodwaters. Those "ridiculous" signs have saved many lives.

I'm sure researchers will be pouring over the deaths during Isabel and looking for things-- perhaps signs, perhaps a better way of presenting warnings, perhaps a new approach to educating the public, perhaps something so simple it will seem almost laughable-- and death tolls from natural hazards will continue to plummet.

[NC George]

Well I think there are a several reasons. One is the forecast track seemed to indicate the people of the east coast north of Cape Lookout would be "spared" Hurricase Isabel, even though they were under hurricane/ts watches/warnings. I'm sure conditions were worse 100 miles away from the eye to the east than they were at my house, which passed directly under the west eyewall, and even briefly into the eye. So, this storm was very lopsided, and very wide. I think they should highlight the exact track of the eye (not as a narrow line, but one that represents the width of the eye, as in this storm it was very wide, you could say this storm 'landed' at any number of locations along a 40 mile stretch of beach.) then attempt to show the affected storm area in the red shaded area. It may be wider or narrower for different storms, in addition to different certainties. In addition, much of the danger from a hurricane is from too much water in too short a time. Much is made of the winds, not much is made of the floods that frequently follow.

Seondly, people attempt to play it to close. As an example of this, I work at a delivery restaurant. Even though the eye was projected to pass very near our town (it passed just to the east) he wanted to open the restaurant (and did) for 2-3 hours before the storm struck, and then after the storm they called me at 8 o'clock pm because the storm cleared out a little early and wanted me to come in for a couple of hours. Well the wind was still blowing, the streams were still rising, branches were still dropping. there was a bit more rain still coming our way, and half the towns in our county had no power and curfews, so I told them no way! Why was it so important for him to stay open? He probably would have lost a total of $3000 net at most if the three stores he owned had closed for the day, but instead he chose to put all of his employee's lives at risk. He would have made it up today, as I'm sure we will be very busy with everyone wanting hot food, and not wanting to cook after spending all day cleaning up the yard. The last storm (Floyd,) his own personal vehicle was lost due to him driving in flood waters, last month a driver lost a car due to driving in flood water. Our town has a history of bad flash floods, especially after a hard rain of just 2-3 inches an hour. You just can't predict the exact time or amount of the wind and rain arriving that you can make minute-by-minute decisions, typically by the time you have made the decision, it is too late (especially for me, I live 15 miles away from work, and 15 miles closer to the coast, and across several streams that flood.) Now when I go back to work, I'm sure I'll take some cow manure, and he'll say, "I told you it wouldn't be so bad." Funny thing is, it always seems he can predict things far into the future, but whenever I make a prediction he says, "Hindsight is always 20/20" I never understood that, because we are talking about my correct foresight, not his hindsight! He got a memo from the national headquarters (I read it surrepticiously) saying that the most important thing when a hurricane was approaching was your employee's safety, and the second most important thing was letting your employees know that their safety was the most important thing (these two were highlighted and the very first statement on the page.) Well, the impression I got from him was my safety was the last thing he cared about, and if people would deliver in 80-100 mph winds he would gladly stay open and let them.

That kinda ties into my last idea, the inland people aren't really prepared for flooding. Even though these is local knowledge of flooding roads, why are there no permanent signs? The same roads flood again and agian. The state I live in has a sign in front of each bridge in the state, which can open and close, and they open and close it every year, that says bridge may freeze before road. Why can't they have a sign the says Road Floods After Heavy Rain, and then have a pole with a foot gauge on the side of the road so people would now how deep it is? Surely there could be some type of sensor what would indicate when a bridge was washed out (something similar to the mechanism that operates RR crossing would work.) Another idea: bridge design. Our area depends on roads, and there are a lot of rivers and streams in our area to be crossed. At a lot of these bridges, there is a heavy earthworks almost to the banks of the river, then the bridge crosses only the main stream. All of these bridges create a barrier behind which water gets trapped, then eventually begins to cross the road on either side of the bridge. Why not make the main span of the bridge wider, and make the approaches on columns, rather than earthworks. This would create much less of a barrier, the water could flow out easier, and perhaps the road wouldn't flood at all.

[cycloneye]

Garrett I agree with you on complancency after she weakened to a cat 2 people started to relax as they saw in the hype media that it was not going to be a catastrofic hurricane but even a cat 1 cane you have to prepare because it is dangerous to be outside and the example was with this cat 2 people walking in the beach and driving cars and look what happened.

[opera ghost]

George you've got some really great ideas- ones that have either gone through my head or the heads of friends. There are a set of parknglots next to my bayou (Braes) which have flood signs in front of them "This area is prone to flood in a 100 years flood" with depth markers much like you've mentioned. When they were put in I thought they were just one of the BEST ideas I'd seen in a long time. People dont' park in those lots if heavy heavy flooding is forcasted- and many fewer cars are lost.

Unfortunelty the bridge construction is a mater of engineering and cost it's cheaper to pile dirt to bank up a road and expensive to build up on collumns. At the same time there's really no way to mitigate the river to flowing under the bridge- even if you built straight columns off the road (which is prohibitivly expensive ) the river would still wash out the road/bridge... Unless you raise the entire road off the ground. (This last is being done on our main loop in Houston- the entire freeway near Braes Bayou and going north was recently raised about 5-10 feet.)

You've got a lot of great ideas... get involved with your local government and see what you can do aobut getting them heard! Some thigns are jsut too expensive- but others liek the flooding signs are actully quite reasonable. Sometimes people just dont' thinka obut it- or assume that it woudl be silly or stupid.

Speak out and be heard by your local government!

[janswizard]

Great discussion, guys!

[alicia-w]

This situation reminds me SO much of monsoon season in Arizona. People never see water in the riverbeds and drive across them everyday without a second thought. But here comes a gullywasher t-storm and those dry washes are now filled with torrential rivers. Some people disregard the barriers and the signs that say DO NOT ENTER WHEN FLOODED. Then they get stuck and some poor fireman or paramedic has to come and risk THEIR lives to get them out. Some people think they're either invincible or that the rules dont apply to them or maybe they just dont think at all..............

However, in AZ, if you have to get rescued, they send you a bill... i love that!! But it doesnt deter all of them.

[wxman57]

I doubt that the deaths were a result of insufficient engineering. Look at the post atop this page. 6 killed in 2 traffic accidents in one state, one in a traffic accident in another. Two beach-goers apparently drowned in NY and RI - way outside the storm. That's 9 of 13 that could have happened without Isabel anywhere around. The two killed by falling trees were probably outside playing in the storm, as was (possibly) the man swept out to sea. The electrician was probably out working to repair power lines after the storm. If you're out driving in a hurricane or playing in the ocean, it's more death by stupidity, not bad engineering.

[ColdFront77]

Wow. Do we know the locations where these losses of life are coming from? I know that sounds heartless, but it is something that would be important to know, ie: where they on the Outer Banks, or Washington DC metro, etc.

I wouldn't consider it heartless... it is good to know where these hurricane related deaths (or apparent hurricane related deaths) have come from.

[cycloneye]

I learned this saturday morning that the total number of deaths related to Isabel has risen to 23 and no question that the name Isabel will be retired.

[msbee]

according to CNN, the number has risen to 29

The 29 storm-related deaths happened in seven East Coast states --- in Virginia, at least 16 people died; 5 in Maryland, three in North Carolina, two in New Jersey and one each in Rhode Island, New York and Pennsylvania.

[msbee]

according to CNN, the number has risen to 29

The 29 storm-related deaths happened in seven East Coast states --- in Virginia, at least 16 people died; 5 in Maryland, three in North Carolina, two in New Jersey and one each in Rhode Island, New York and Pennsylvania.

[Josephine96]

Ms Bee thanks for the info.. even if you did post it twice lol

[weatherlover427]

I have to admit it. Sorry if I';m harsh, but it pi$$ed me off that people said "she's weakening she's weakening she's weakening she's weakening she's weakening she's weakening ...". That made me so mad that I threw my remote across the room several times and said quite a few curse words during the course of Isabel. WHO GIVES A CARE IF THE STORM IS WEAKENING!? HELLO IT'S STILL A HURRICANE AND IT CAN STILL DAMAGE THINGS AND INJURE AND KILL PEOPLE!!! When the hey will that EVER get through people's heads!?!

[cycloneye]

I sadly edited the number in the title of this thread to 29 and it was only a cat 2 not a cat 4 or 5.

[Thunder44]

Yes, I think some assumed that the storm will continue to weaken. I read posts saying that this storm may become a TS or TD by landfall. I didn't believe that would happen. I think what happened with the storm is that it had such a favorable enviornment where it could be so strong for so long that it went it approached the East Coast it met with a not so friendly enviorment so therefore it weakened significantly but still a formidable storm.

Also I think some people just didn't believe forecasts and all the hype. It's that "the weatherman are always wrong" attitude again. I never thought this storm would it North Carolina as a Cat 5 hurricane anyway. It's my opnion that a Cat 5 is more likely to hit Florida or the Gulf Coast.

[Hoosierwxdude]

Yes, I think some assumed that the storm will continue to weaken. I read posts saying that this storm may become a TS or TD by landfall. I didn't believe that would happen. I think what happened with the storm is that it had such a favorable enviornment where it could be so strong for so long that it went it approached the East Coast it met with a not so friendly enviorment so therefore it weakened significantly but still a formidable storm.

Also I think some people just didn't believe forecasts and all the hype. It's that "the weatherman are always wrong" attitude again. I never thought this storm would it North Carolina as a Cat 5 hurricane anyway. It's my opnion that a Cat 5 is more likely to hit Florida or the Gulf Coast.

Well, considering that a Cat 5 has never hit the US mainland roughly north of 30 North, your assertion is pretty logical. If it would have hit Carolina as a 5, it would have been historic. It was pretty much impossible though as the perfect environment is needed for a Cat 5, and for one the SST's off the NC coast were in the upper 70's.

[ColdFront77]

The track Hurricane Isabel took in itself was historic.