EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

Sanibel · #981 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:28 pm

The Villages of Costa Careyes and Emiliano Zapata should be close to the center at landfall if it stays on NHC track.

Pretty good for a Nino year that some people were writing off.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#982 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Its pretty amazing..

Wish we had you posting when it was originally peaking yesterday!

Annie Oakley · #983 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Its pretty amazing..

Ha ha.....I was just now hoping to hear from you and your professional take on it.
In your experience-what do you see as never seen in a cyclogenesis?

Aric Dunn · #984 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:29 pm

The is eye definitely beginning to wobble around. a sign the the outter eyewall is contracting. impressive ..

tropicwatch · #985 Postby **tropicwatch** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:30 pm

404UserNotFound wrote:Pre-landfall livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s.

Supposedly the cam of the beach is in Manzanillo

NotoSans · #986 Postby **NotoSans** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:31 pm

18Z Best Track: 175kt 879mb
God bless Mexico...

EP, 20, 2015102318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1053W, 175, 879, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,

Aric Dunn · #987 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:31 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Its pretty amazing..

Ha ha.....I was just now hoping to hear from you and your professional take on it.
In your experience-what do you see as never seen in a cyclogenesis?

As never seen ?

there is nothing out of the ordinary in terms of its life cycle. All the right conditions came together and we could get recon in there as well. there likely has been more that just this. but just no recon to verify.

#988 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:32 pm

Live floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=EP202015&starting_image=2015EP20_1KMSRVIS_201510222330.GIF

source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=EP202015

Hammy · #989 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:37 pm

Sanibel wrote: Pretty good for a Nino year that some people were writing off.

Most were writing off the Atlantic side--the EP was always expected to be hyperactive from the start this year.

pgoss11 · #990 Postby **pgoss11** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:38 pm

My daughter in laws family live in Michoacan. Will they be on the east or west side of the storm? Looks very bad regardless..

Annie Oakley · #991 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:38 pm

Thanks for that Tola-as usual-great visuals.
All we need now is to hear from Jonathan Belles.........

Sanibel · #992 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:40 pm

Un huracán de intensidad registro se acerca a la costa de México cerca de Costa Careyes. Representa un peligro inmediato para la vida y la propiedad. Los residentes en su camino deben consultar a las autoridades locales y buscar refugio seguro inmediatamente.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tropicwatch · #993 Postby **tropicwatch** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:41 pm

Impressive blow up of convection going on.

#994 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:41 pm

000
URPN12 KWBC 231839
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015
A. 23/17:33:00Z
B. 18 deg 10 min N
105 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 1924 m
D. 169 kt
E. 305 deg / 5 nm
F. 118 deg 204 kt
G. 133 deg 5 nm
H. 883 mb
I. 12 C / 3063 m
J. 28 C / 2901 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C7
N. 12345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS

tropicwatch · #995 Postby **tropicwatch** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:43 pm

Sanibel wrote:Un huracán de intensidad registro se acerca a la costa de México cerca de Costa Careyes. Representa un peligro inmediato para la vida y la propiedad. Los residentes en su camino deben consultar a las autoridades locales y buscar refugio seguro inmediatamente.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Translation:

A hurricane intensity registry approaches the coast of Mexico near Costa Careyes. Represents an immediate danger to life and property. The residents in your way should consult with local authorities and seek safe shelter immediately.

Bunkertor · #996 Postby **Bunkertor** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:44 pm

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/ maxed out - maybe later

#997 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:45 pm

NotoSans · #998 Postby **NotoSans** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:46 pm

The record for minimum height at standard level is 1944 m, set by Typhoon Tip in 1979.
I wonder whether that 1924 m is really valid...

#999 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:50 pm

NotoSans wrote:The record for minimum height at standard level is 1944 m, set by Typhoon Tip in 1979.
I wonder whether that 1924 m is really valid...

That would be about 868 or 869 mb if that is.

Aric Dunn · #1000 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:50 pm

DO we have coastal radar in that area of mexico ?

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