EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

supercane4867 · #1121 Postby **supercane4867** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Any landfall pressure below 900mb is still in record territory

#1122 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:46 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Debatable if this is even a category 5 hurricane anymore. Still will have tremendous impacts and be devastating, but the worst case scenario may be avoided. Hopefully the weakening trend continues.

It's clearly a 5. We still have 131 kt at the surface in the NW Quad. Never penetrated the NE quad, where the highest winds were

#1123 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:47 pm

galaxy401 wrote:I think they missed the strongest winds. No way did it weaken that quick in only a couple hours. Certainly weaker though.

The NE quad should be the strongest, so it is likely a fair bit stronger there still. I'd only lower the intensity to 150 kt for now.

#1124 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:47 pm

probably around 150 kts now

#1125 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:48 pm

Usually we get 3 passes and we're at 2 right now. But it looks like they used 1/3 of their partitioned mission fuel while they were looping around. So it could mean mission is over.

#1126 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:48 pm

If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

#1127 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:49 pm

Make no mistake, this is still an incredibly dangerous hurricane capable of total destruction. It is as strong as or stronger than Katrina at its peak...and only about 2-4 hours from landfall...

#1128 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:49 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

NE quadrant would have strongest winds.

Aric Dunn · #1129 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Usually we get 3 passes and we're at 2 right now. But it looks like they used 1/3 of their partitioned mission fuel while they were looping around. So it could mean mission is over.

yeah, though they could do a quick loop and head back. sometimes the NHC does that for research reasons.

#1130 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

NE quadrant would have strongest winds.

The SE quadrant would have winds most aligned with the motion vector, no?

Aric Dunn · #1131 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:51 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

Well if it were moving due north then the east quad would be strongest. soo NNE motion would give the ESE would the strongest.

#1132 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:51 pm

They turned in the eye and went through the NE quadrant eyewall. The NW quad looks much stronger on radar, and likely avoided that to avoid another mess!

#1133 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:51 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

NE quadrant would have strongest winds.

The SE quadrant would have winds most aligned with the motion vector, no?

northeast would be the right, front quadrant as it is moving only slightly east of due north

#1134 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

Well if it were moving due north then the east quad would be strongest. soo NNE motion would give the ESE would the strongest.

Exactly, closer to SE quadrant than NE quadrant. Regardless, this is still a very powerful hurricane.

terrapintransit · #1135 Postby **terrapintransit** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:54 pm

Alyono wrote:Barra de Navidad, a town of 7,000, may be wiped out by this

According to the Wunderground forecast winds in Barra De Navidad only expected to peak at 90mph... I took a snap shot of the forcast on my phone but couldn't upload it to show you. Doesn't 90mph seem a tad low for a Cat 5?

#1136 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:55 pm

2 PM PDT.

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT

Aric Dunn · #1137 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:55 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

Well if it were moving due north then the east quad would be strongest. soo NNE motion would give the ESE would the strongest.

Exactly, closer to SE quadrant than NE quadrant. Regardless, this is still a very powerful hurricane.

Exactly where ever that inner eye comes in will be devastating.

#1138 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:55 pm

terrapintransit wrote:
Alyono wrote:Barra de Navidad, a town of 7,000, may be wiped out by this

According to the Wunderground forecast winds in Barra De Navidad only expected to peak at 90mph... I took a snap shot of the forcast on my phone but couldn't upload it to show you. Doesn't 90mph seem a tad low for a Cat 5?

its the extreme wind gradient. Even a wobble of a couple of miles would bring winds 40 mph greater

#1139 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:57 pm

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 232055
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 105.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 105.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 105.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

windnrain · #1140 Postby **windnrain** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:58 pm

Recon noped out.

EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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