EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

I would guess inflow is being restricted, too bad it's moving so fast towards the coast.

[tatertawt24]

Definitely looks like it weakened a lot.

[ozonepete]

If the storm is moving to the NNE, shouldn't the SE quadrant feature the strongest winds? Chances are it is still a category 5, but definitely not 175 knots any longer.

NE quadrant would have strongest winds.

The SE quadrant would have winds most aligned with the motion vector, no?

No. It's always the right front quadrant which in this case is NE, not SE.

[SouthDadeFish]

The eye has really lost definition on IR imagery over the last couple hours:



Nonetheless, conditions will begin to rapidly deteriorate along the Mexican coastline.

[Nate-Gillson]

Alot weaker than 190 mph. I would say 160-165 mph is what the winds actually are, but I could be wrong.

[ozonepete]

Let me restate this to clarify. It's the right front quadrant. Period. You can't really use NE or SE designations when a storm isn't moving due N, S, E or W.

[Alyono]

Hit by fairly strong SW shear it appears just prior to landfall. Notice that the flight level and surface centers are not aligned

[CrazyC83]

Alot weaker than 190 mph. I would say 160-165 mph is what the winds actually are, but I could be wrong.

Given the fact the strongest area was not sampled, I'd have gone with 175 mph (150 kt). It was probably 170 kt at 1800Z, and I think it peaked at 1200Z at 180 kt (pressure 875mb) between passes.

[Aric Dunn]

Let me restate this to clarify. It's the right front quadrant. Period. You can't really use NE or SE designations when a storm isn't moving due N, S, E or W.

alright to put this to an end. to be "right front" it has to be at a 90 degree angle otherwise it would not be right front its all relative directions.. see image below..

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be degrading pretty quickly now, but this typically happens as an EPAC hurricane makes landfall.

[wxmann_91]

I don't think there's any doubt that they'll reduce the windspeeds in post-analysis. Borderline Cat 4/5 at best and is rapidly weakening in the face of southerly shear. Too late though for MX - will still be a catastrophic hurricane at landfall.

[tatertawt24]

Alot weaker than 190 mph. I would say 160-165 mph is what the winds actually are, but I could be wrong.

Given the fact the strongest area was not sampled, I'd have gone with 175 mph (150 kt). It was probably 165 kt at 1800Z, and I think it peaked at 1200Z at 180 kt (pressure 875mb) between passes.

Yup, I agree. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it's dropped below cat 5 now, actually. When a storm like this collapses, it COLLAPSES. Wilma dropped to 150mph and only dropped a few millibars.

[psyclone]

once any of the ducks step out of line on a storm of this intensity the degradation can be every bit as quick, if not quicker, than the ramp up. the sat pics have degraded recently..

[Kingarabian]

Thank you to all of the USAF and NOAA crews for providing us with such valuable information despite the dangers.

Also, thank you to all our very own professional-mets and our amateurs for taking part in discussing this amazing and historic hurricane..

[ozonepete]

Let me restate this to clarify. It's the right front quadrant. Period. You can't really use NE or SE designations when a storm isn't moving due N, S, E or W.

alright to put this to an end. to be "right front" it has to be at a 90 degree angle otherwise it would not be right front its all relative directions.. see image below..

Ha ha you're agreeing with me. The area you outlined is the right front quadrant along the direction of motion which is what they teach in Meteo classes. That is not the NE or SE quadrant. If you insist on using directional compass terms it's the NNE-ESE quadrant. Why not just say right front?

[Aric Dunn]

Let me restate this to clarify. It's the right front quadrant. Period. You can't really use NE or SE designations when a storm isn't moving due N, S, E or W.

alright to put this to an end. to be "right front" it has to be at a 90 degree angle otherwise it would not be right front its all relative directions.. see image below..

Ha ha you're agreeing with me. The area you outlined is the right front quadrant along the direction of motion which is what they teach in Meteo classes. That is not the NE or SE quadrant. If you insist on using directional compass terms it's the NNE-ESE quadrant. Why not just say right front?

Agreed on the quad part.. however the area that would have the theoretical maximum winds would be "ESE" of the center if moving NNE. Same concept two different relations.

[hurricaneCW]

Great news on the weakening.

[bqhurricane]

NHC still has it at 900 mbar and 190mph as of the 4PM advisory.

[NDG]

I've been watching live web cams, unfortunately none from Manzanillo or La Manzanilla, traffic is a mess in Gualdalajara, I guess people making preparations for the hurricane, it is insane their traffic.

[SouthDadeFish]

Aric, thanks for the diagram. That's what I was trying to get across. The theoretical location where the cyclonic winds align most with the motion vector is in the SE quadrant (technically ESE, as you say). Yes the right front quadrant features convective asymmetries and largest storm surge among other effects, but my point was where the motion vector was most aligned with the storm's primary circulation. Regardless, there are other factors at play such as the shear vector, potential land interaction, and the secondary eyewall itself. This isn't a textbook case.