Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

here we go!
94AINVEST.15kts-1010mb-59N-687E


GFS:


ECMWF: into the Gulf of Aden

[alhddar]

94AINVEST.20kts-1006mb-60N-646E

[mrbagyo]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 64.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 64.4E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD,
DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251337Z
NOAA 18GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED, POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC. A
251602Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 DUE
TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[wxman57]

Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.

Do you think it'll affect any landmasses?

[wxman57]

Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.

Do you think it'll affect any landmasses?

EC & GFS indicate a landfall in Yemen in 8-9 days.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.

Do you think it'll affect any landmasses?

EC & GFS indicate a landfall in Yemen in 8-9 days.

Dang.

[mrbagyo]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 66.0E
(INVEST AREA 94A), IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY
1050 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261417Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN AREA
OF DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Alyono]

likely will be a very intense landfall in Yemen. Expect massive flooding. Even weak TCs cause large death tolls from freshwater flooding in Yemen and Somalia

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure if there's a well-defined LLC, but otherwise, it looks and smells like a TC.

[Dave C]

Curved banding setting up.

[jaguarjace]

94A INVEST 151028 0000 11.5N 64.6E IO 30 1000

[Alyono]

clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, you have to classify this.



As is often the case in the Arabian Sea though, dry air does lurk about.

[mrbagyo]

Low VWS area lies ahead just east of "the HORN" - must be the sweet spot for this system though I still expect this to weaken considerably before landfall.

[Kingarabian]

clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula

What are the landfall chances at this point?

[Alyono]

clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula

What are the landfall chances at this point?

a virtual certainty

[Alyono]

Yeah, you have to classify this.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/I ... E.71pc.jpg

As is often the case in the Arabian Sea though, dry air does lurk about.

fortunately, I do NOT have to wait for this to form a concentric eye as IMD will before they even call it a depression. I went ahead and called this a depression at 3Z

[Kingarabian]

clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula

What are the landfall chances at this point?

a virtual certainty

So it's not going to be like that system that formed earlier this summer (July?) but eventually dissipated?

[Alyono]

So it's not going to be like that system that formed earlier this summer (July?) but eventually dissipated?

unfortunately no. This could get quite intense as well. EC is taking this down to about 943mb before it weakens to about 986 at landfall as it rides along the coast for about 18 hours

Given this is a desert, this is a rain threat