Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

to my surprise, IMD has called this a depression as well

[jaguarjace]

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Dated: 28.10.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB04/2015/01

Sub: Depression over southeast Arabian Sea

Latest satellite imagery and available observations indicate that a Depression has
formed over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of southwest and central Arabian
Sea and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 28th October 2015 near Latitude
11.5°N and longitude 65.0°E, about 1200 km southwest of Mumbai and about 1320 km
southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move north-northwestwards and intensify into a
Deep Depression during next 24 hours and into a Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 24
hours. It would then move westwards towards Yemen and adjoining Oman coast.
As the system is expected to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather
is expected along and off west coast of India. However, the fishermen over Lakshadweep
area are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea during next 24 hours.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030hrs IST of today, the 28th October, 2015

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

[Kingarabian]

So it's not going to be like that system that formed earlier this summer (July?) but eventually dissipated?

unfortunately no. This could get quite intense as well. EC is taking this down to about 943mb before it weakens to about 986 at landfall as it rides along the coast for about 18 hours

Given this is a desert, this is a rain threat

Aah. I think I'll start warning my folks back home soon. Wind + Rain + Sand will be terrible if it makes it well inland.

[Alyono]

So it's not going to be like that system that formed earlier this summer (July?) but eventually dissipated?

unfortunately no. This could get quite intense as well. EC is taking this down to about 943mb before it weakens to about 986 at landfall as it rides along the coast for about 18 hours

Given this is a desert, this is a rain threat

Aah. I think I'll start warning my folks back home soon. Wind + Rain + Sand will be terrible if it makes it well inland.

you're from Yemen?

[Kingarabian]

you're from Yemen?

I have family in Saudia Arabia and close friends in Yemen. I think they should be fine but they just had a massive sandstorm, and a storm that caused massive winds/gusts.

[wxman57]

Morning Dvorak is 2.5, which is a tropical storm. ASCAT continues to miss the system. It did graze the eastern edge and there were a number of 30kt winds, but it missed the heavier convection. I think it's a TS now though IMD says it has winds <27kts (i.e., not a "well-marked depression" yet). It's more than "well-marked", it's a tropical storm.

[mrbagyo]

Too organized for a "TD"

[NotoSans]

T2.0 from IMD. Expect an upgrade to deep depression soon.

[Dave C]

Another storm with insane outflow!

[wxman57]

Deep depression? How about rapidly-strengthening tropical storm?

[mrbagyo]

Deep depression? How about rapidly-strengthening tropical storm?

certainly, look at that developing eyewall


I wonder, could this dethrone Gonu??

[1900hurricane]

#NameMe

[Yellow Evan]

T2.0 from IMD. Expect an upgrade to deep depression soon.

Where do you get IMD Dvorak numbers from?

[wxman57]

Where do you get IMD Dvorak numbers from?

Go to the IMD website, mouse-over the red dot and click "Read More" in the pop-up box that appears. Their discussion mentions the T-number.

Perhaps the IMD should look at the 1630Z ASCAT pass that had many 40kt and one 45kt wind. This is no "deep depression".

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

[jaguarjace]

[wxman57]

The IMD isn't even forecasting it to become a hurricane. They're forecasting winds to reach 100-120 kph (54-65 kts) in 48-60 hours then remain at that intensity through 120 hrs. 120 kph does equal 65 kts, but they identify the cyclone as "Severe Tropical Cyclone", which is 53-63 kts, I believe. I'll bet it is a hurricane in 24-36 hrs and a major hurricane within 48-72 hrs.

IMD forecast:
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1446061884.pdf

[wxman57]

http://i.imgur.com/UZYkd08.gif

Where are you finding JTWC's track? I can't find one on their website or on the Monterrey site.

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC track.

[Grifforzer]

T2.0 from IMD. Expect an upgrade to deep depression soon.

Where do you get IMD Dvorak numbers from?

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/satelliteImage/description.pdf

Satellite bulletin description page. It shows Dvorak intensity descriptions for the Arabian, Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea, Southwestern Indian Ocean, and Western Pacific (Philippines westward towards Thailand region)

[Kingarabian]

The IMD isn't even forecasting it to become a hurricane. They're forecasting winds to reach 100-120 kph (54-65 kts) in 48-60 hours then remain at that intensity through 120 hrs. 120 kph does equal 65 kts, but they identify the cyclone as "Severe Tropical Cyclone", which is 53-63 kts, I believe. I'll bet it is a hurricane in 24-36 hrs and a major hurricane within 48-72 hrs.

IMD forecast:
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1446061884.pdf

Why do they even do that? Like, do they have access to data that points otherwise? Or do they normally under forecast storms?