Texas Fall-2015

[JDawg512]

What does this mean for winter?

It looks like the Fri/Sat storm is more progressive now and most of the rain will fall Friday or early Saturday along the I-35 corridor, so most of Halloween may be dry.

Always good to see Nino 1+2 cooler than 3.4. Usually means tropical forcing is closer to the dateline ala 1963-1964/2009-2010 vs 1982/1997. Weakening Nino is good as we progress into winter, otherwise it will flood the whole country with warmth.

I wouldn't think that the El Niño is weakening yet. There's a lot of warm water at depth and is still making its way east as a Kelvin Wave. 1.2 may not be as warm but a bunch of warm water will be coming up over the next 2 months.

[Brent]

GFS showing a much heavier band of rain around DFW from the Fri/Sat storm:



and continues with the other storm Wed/Thu next week and a major cold front on Friday, consistently showing lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and 60s for a few days.

[txprog]

Portastorm's Halloween costume:

I love JB when he is forecasting weather, but when he is spouting his BS on climate change, well, that's another matter. But here - please no offense intended - he kinda looks like a pumped up Italian John DuPont........

[iorange55]

I'm sure there is somewhere else to discuss this, so please direct me to that part of the forum if so.

But why do most here believe climate change is "BS"?

[gboudx]

It has been discussed, in the past, in the Global Weather Forum. I humbly request those discussions remain there as I don't want to read the debate here.

viewforum.php?f=3

The AmericanWx web site used to have a lively forum for the discussion as well.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms possible Friday-Saturday.

Next in a series of upper level storm systems will move across TX late this week into this weekend. Overall model guidance is maintaining a progressive system, but timing continues to look like Saturday (Halloween) being the main weather event day. Low level moisture will begin to return off the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and really surge into the area on Friday. Warm air advection regime along with increasing SW flow aloft will support increasing rain chances on Friday especially in the afternoon hours. PWS increase Friday night into the 1.7-2.0 inches range which is about .5 of an inch lower than the event this past weekend. Jet dynamics come to bear over the region Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and when combined with the moisture expect a rough of strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, a surface low will develop over SE TX and move across the region which will help to focus thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Models have been getting more aggressive with onset of moisture advection on Friday and this may require an increase in Friday rainfall chances and earlier start (mid to late morning) instead of current thinking (late afternoon into evening).

Rainfall:
Current model projections have lower forecasted QPF from earlier in the week suggesting widespread amounts of 1-3 inches instead of 4-6 inches. Overall nature of this storm system is more convective (thunderstorms) which will likely lead to heavier rainfall rates, but faster progressive nature should help to cut back on storm totals. There does appear to be a period from around 300am Saturday morning to around 300pm Saturday afternoon where some degree of cell training could develop over the region especially south of I-10, but this far out such activity remains uncertain.

With grounds saturated and area rivers running high additional rainfall could cause some problems, but think the flood threat is modest at this time.

Severe:
While wind shear parameters will be high, the main question is on the amount of instability, which looks fairly low due to clouds and warm air advection showers in the pre-frontal air mass. Will maintain a small threat for an isolated severe thunderstorms with the main threat being wind damage or an isolated tornado. Will have a better feel for the convective parameters as we move toward Friday.

Timing:
Likely most important for everyone is the timing and will this be out of here by Halloween evening. Forecast models have been generally speeding up the system and starting to converge on a Friday afternoon/evening through mid afternoon Saturday timing. Current thinking is that the heavy stuff will be east of SE TX by around sunset Saturday, but with the upper level low lingering to the west a period of light overrunning rainfall is possible into Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will be gusty from the south during the day Saturday and then turn out of the NW post front Saturday afternoon and evening with temperatures falling into the lower 60’s.

[CaptinCrunch]

What does this mean for winter?

It looks like the Fri/Sat storm is more progressive now and most of the rain will fall Friday or early Saturday along the I-35 corridor, so most of Halloween may be dry.

Always good to see Nino 1+2 cooler than 3.4. Usually means tropical forcing is closer to the dateline ala 1963-1964/2009-2010 vs 1982/1997. Weakening Nino is good as we progress into winter, otherwise it will flood the whole country with warmth.

I wouldn't think that the El Niño is weakening yet. There's a lot of warm water at depth and is still making its way east as a Kelvin Wave. 1.2 may not be as warm but a bunch of warm water will be coming up over the next 2 months.

El Nino isn't weakening any, just cooler water temps in Nino 1+2 than 3.4, El Nino should peak by early December then the slow decline begins over the rest of Winter into Spring.

[Ntxw]

I don't believe the Nino is weakening at all. In fact it is still strengthening and will keep that going for another 1-3 months. Full force of it is yet to come, I was only mentioning 1+2 has seen some decrease which is hopeful for some cold weather. The entire enso basin is well within extreme Nino thresholds. Nino 4 is a record, Nino 3.4 is second record, Nino 3 is 1s or 2nd record, Nino 1+2 is above super Nino threshold still. No cake walk by all means!

[tolakram]

It has been discussed, in the past, in the Global Weather Forum. I humbly request those discussions remain there as I don't want to read the debate here.

viewforum.php?f=3

The AmericanWx web site used to have a lively forum for the discussion as well.

I agree, the topic is too politicized and generally the conversation never ends well. My opinion anyway, I'll let a Texas admin/mod decide.

[texas1836]

The ice field up north has grown considerably during October. Could be good for the Winter lovers.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_ ... ursnow.gif

[Ntxw]

Lets end the CC debate here and focus on weather. It is fine to use it in context to support data such as temperature readings. It can derail a thread quickly and many readers dislike the back and forth it can cause. Any posts referring to the above on forward I will clean up.

Many thanks.

Looks like the rains may stop early enough for trick or treaters. Hoping that will be the case Saturday

[gboudx]

The ice field up north has grown considerably during October. Could be good for the Winter lovers.

Amazing to compare it to last year:

[Ntxw]

October snowfall has grown at a good clip. Not record, but well above normal. Next to look for would be snow extent or how far south the snow cover is. Its around normal now. Would love for central and south central Canada to grow in that regards.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not sure there is a clear answer, but does the pattern (east based or more central based) or overall strength matter more for our weather during winter?
The SST anomaly pattern in the Pacific and Atlantic look cool to cold temp wise especially for Jan-Mar and wet. Though maybe the overall strength will overwhelm things and keep a roaring flat jet over the CONUS.

[Ralph's Weather]

The ice field up north has grown considerably during October. Could be good for the Winter lovers.

Amazing to compare it to last year:

Is that map right for last year, that looks incredibly barren for late Oct.

[gboudx]

Very good question Ralph, so I went back to the Archive site. Looks like some goof-up with incorrect reporting from 10/27/2014-10/29/2014.

Disregard that post. Here's 10/26/2014 for a more fair comparison.

[dhweather]

Is this shaping up to be a cold Europe winter and not so much North America?

[Ntxw]

Is this shaping up to be a cold Europe winter and not so much North America?

That is a possibility. A large chunk of NA will have a warm winter (much of Canada and Nrthrn US) the only likely cool regions is south of I-40 due to STJ. Europe is a tougher forecast, they are modulated more by the NAO and AO vs Pacific indexes

[Brent]

Only 1-2" of the rain around DFW falls through Sunday, the rest is next week:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, if these big Pacific storms come from far enough north, could that result in snow for us in Texas in the fashion of a cold core low? Or would the low need to draw in more arctic air to produce winter weather for us?