Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

not a 35 kt storm at all. I do not understand IMD...

[Grifforzer]

IMD satellite bulletin description update at the 11:30 AM IST hour.

Vortex (CHAPALA) over central Arabian Sea has further intensified centered near 13.9N 63.7E

Intensity T3.0

[Grifforzer]

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Hawaii

290600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

[wxman57]

IMD continues to amaze. 45kts intensity? Perhaps nearly twice that. Eye is clearing out on visible. They are truly clueless about tropical cyclones.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/rsmc_1446138802.pdf

[terstorm1012]

how can IMD be so clueless about tropical cyclones when their coasts are menaced by them fairly often?

[Alyono]

how can IMD be so clueless about tropical cyclones when their coasts are menaced by them fairly often?

they are also the enlightened individuals who said Nargis was a cat 1 equivalent when it was a cat 3/4 as it approached Myanmar, causing Myanmar to prepare for a weaker system than they received. We know the results of that IMD analysis and forecast

[Alyono]

IMD continues to amaze. 45kts intensity? Perhaps nearly twice that. Eye is clearing out on visible. They are truly clueless about tropical cyclones.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/rsmc_1446138802.pdf

you're being charitable toward IMD's abilities. They are saying this is a 40 kt cyclone

[Alyono]

I went 65 kts in the advisory I issued at 9Z. I could have gone a bit higher as I had a Dvorak of 4.5

[wxman57]

IMD continues to amaze. 45kts intensity? Perhaps nearly twice that. Eye is clearing out on visible. They are truly clueless about tropical cyclones.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/rsmc_1446138802.pdf

you're being charitable toward IMD's abilities. They are saying this is a 40 kt cyclone

Their advisory has winds of 75-85 kph. That's 40-46 kts.

[Alyono]

IMD continues to amaze. 45kts intensity? Perhaps nearly twice that. Eye is clearing out on visible. They are truly clueless about tropical cyclones.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/rsmc_1446138802.pdf

you're being charitable toward IMD's abilities. They are saying this is a 40 kt cyclone

Their advisory has winds of 75-85 kph. That's 40-46 kts.

Here is where they have their totally bogus 40 kts

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/imag ... n/rsmc.pdf

"ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 3.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND
SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS"

[Yellow Evan]

I'm gonna go out of a limb and say this is not 40 knots.

29/0830 UTC 14.0N 63.5E T4.0/4.0 CHAPALA -- Arabian Sea

TPIO10 PGTW 291213

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 14.20N

D. 63.13E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS
1.05 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES WITH DT,
WHILE MET YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

Even these T numbers look a little low. I'd say this is around 70-75 knots now.

[Grifforzer]

India Meteorological Department satellite bulletin description at the 17:30 PM IST hour

Vortex (CHAPALA) over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea now lies centered near 14.2N 63.2E
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

[jaguarjace]

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST
Dated: 29.10.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB04/2015/05

Sub: Severe Cyclonic storm ‘Chapala’ over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral
Arabian Sea.

The Cyclonic storm, ‘Chapala’ over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Arabian
Sea moved west-northwestwards with a speed of about 12 kmph during past 6 hours and
intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the
29th October 2015 over near Latitude 14.1°N and longitude 63.3°E, about 1150 km westsouthwest
of Mumbai and about 1040 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would
move west-northwestwards and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12
hours. It would cross north Yemen and adjoining Oman coast as a very severe cyclonic
storm between Latitude 15.0°N and 17.0°N around 2330 hrs IST of 2 November.
As the system would move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather is
expected along and off west coast of India.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

[1900hurricane]

Bombs away?

[Alyono]

thinking this is almost certain to reach cat 5 intensity

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, based on current trends, this is getting quite intense. It's rather small too, so that will probably prevent it from sucking in some of the dry air lurking around for at least a little while. Until then, the sky is the limit.

[Alyono]

its also moving more west, taking it toward Al Mukalla. has a population of 300K, right on the coast. Saw some pics of the city, they cannot sustain any type of cyclone, much less a category 4

[1900hurricane]

Probably not a time to get hung up on constraints.

TPIO11 PGTW 292106

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 29/2030Z

C. 14.23N

D. 62.08E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. PT YIELDS A 4.5 WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.0. DBO
PT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 OVR 6HRS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1703Z 14.12N 62.40E MMHS


MARTINEZ

[Kingarabian]

thinking this is almost certain to reach cat 5 intensity

Agreed. This is terrible news. Too bad the IMD is doing a horrific job in warning the public.

[Alyono]

a pinhole eye has formed