HERE WE GO? TAKE A LOOK.......

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 3:59 pm

More convection now at about 50 West:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#2 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 4:29 pm

I think what's in the SW GOM is of more concern in the
short turn then what's in the Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 4:35 pm

Good call Storm Center.. but if they both develop.. we could have a Juan and a Kate in the tropics.. We shall wait and see..

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 5:42 pm

That area around 50W is currently moving N or NE and is only picked up by one model that I have seen so far and it makes it a fish with minimal development.

The SW GOM disturbance is interesting, but not organized at all or showing any signs of organization at this time. At a minimum I would expect it to provide a rainy time for the N GOM coast from the Misssissippi River East in a few days as it moves NE.

Of interest, if you follow the EPAC at all is TS Marty, which at least 3 models take into SW AZ by the end of the week.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 5:55 pm

vbhoutex wrote:That area around 50W is currently moving N or NE and is only picked up by one model that I have seen so far and it makes it a fish with minimal development.

The SW GOM disturbance is interesting, but not organized at all or showing any signs of organization at this time. At a minimum I would expect it to provide a rainy time for the N GOM coast from the Misssissippi River East in a few days as it moves NE.

Of interest, if you follow the EPAC at all is TS Marty, which at least 3 models take into SW AZ by the end of the week.

Wow about Marty :o

#6 Postby **abajan** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 7:41 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:More convection now at about 50 West

I wish similar convection would develop around 13N, 59W. Barbados could really use some rain right now. (Well, most of the island anyway. I understand somewhere in the north got about 2.5 inches of rain in a 45 minute cloudburst today. My house in the south didn't get a drop: hot with brilliant sunshine all day. DARNIT!) For the year so far, Grantley Adams Airport could only manage to rack up just over 500 mm of rainfall. :cry:

Someone please do a rain dance for us.

AussieMark · #7 Postby **AussieMark** » Sat Sep 20, 2003 7:45 pm

<B>Abajan<?B>, be careful what you. Nature has a way of giving more thn you bargained for.

GalvestonDuck · #8 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 7:50 am

vbhoutex wrote:The SW GOM disturbance is interesting, but not organized at all or showing any signs of organization at this time. At a minimum I would expect it to provide a rainy time for the N GOM coast from the Misssissippi River East in a few days as it moves NE.

Agree. Already, it's been raining almost non-stop here since yesterday -- just past noon. Went to a wedding in Houston and had to drive through torrential downpours both ways. (Not really complaining since it could be worse.)

Don't the buoy pressures drop even during a good old basic thunderstorm? That's all I think this is. Rain...and lots of it.

See, VB -- we do agree sometimes.

azsnowman · #9 Postby **azsnowman** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 7:55 am

Indeed, I've got my eyes focused on Senior Marty.........NAFD this morning has moisture pulling into the state by Weds and not leaving until sometime NEXT week, could be a VERY rainy week ......of course, just in time for 27th Annual Run To The Pines Car Show! Largest Classic Car Show in the WEST! Some 739 entries this year!

Dennis

Superstorm · #10 Postby **Superstorm** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 7:58 am

Abajan<?B>, be careful what you. Nature has a way of giving more thn you bargained for.

You mean like when North Carolina and Virginia desperately wanted drought relief in September 1999?

azsnowman · #11 Postby **azsnowman** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 8:01 am

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SUN SEP 21 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WARM
DAYS...AND COOL NIGHTS. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING. ON TUESDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTERACTS WITH A RIDGE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
MARTY NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA.

IN THE EXTENDED...MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MARTY WILL BE ADVECTED INTO ARIZONA AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO MOVE THE MOISTURE OUT OF ARIZONA. FOR THIS REASON POPS RAMP
UP ON WEDNSDAY AND THEN WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

Dennis

AussieMark · #12 Postby **AussieMark** » Sun Sep 21, 2003 8:09 am

Superstorm wrote:
Abajan<?B>, be careful what you. Nature has a way of giving more thn you bargained for.

You mean like when North Carolina and Virginia desperately wanted drought relief in September 1999?

Exactly

It wouldn't be the first time for an area needed rain and ended up receiving more than they had bargained for.

Also it won't be last such an occurrence would take place.

Look through history i have no doubt that such a nasty trick by mother nature has happened before.

HERE WE GO? TAKE A LOOK.......

HERE WE GO? TAKE A LOOK.......

A lot closer to home....

Re: HERE WE GO? TAKE A LOOK.......

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