Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

I'd put it at 125 kt right now with that.

[mrbagyo]

Can someone put a picture from SSEC Real Earth - must be clearer

[Kingarabian]

Eye is at +10.0C.

[Kingarabian]

ensembles are taking this deep into the Gulf of Aden, possible into the more heavily populated parts of Yemen. Could come in as far west as Al Mukalla or even farther west

I think the Euro was originally forecasting it to make it deep in the gulf of Aden. This would be catastrophic if it makes landfall anywhere near war torn Sanaa.

[Alyono]

ensembles are taking this deep into the Gulf of Aden, possible into the more heavily populated parts of Yemen. Could come in as far west as Al Mukalla or even farther west

I think the Euro was originally forecasting it to make it deep in the gulf of Aden. This would be catastrophic if it makes landfall anywhere near war torn Sanaa.

probably not making it as far as Sanaa. I still like Al Mukalla for the landfall. I've seen more photos today. That place looks to be a cyclone death trap as it is hemmed in by mountains, which have no vegetation, so we will be looking at Haiti-like mudslides, eliminating them as a source of shelter from the tidal surge

[Kingarabian]

Eye continues to clear out.

[Alyono]

KingArabian, Just how bad would 10-15 inches of rain be for Yemen? Are we talking catastrophic flooding and mudslides as I suspect?

[Alyono]

Just did a microwave Dvorak on this and am getting a 6.5. Came close to giving it a 7.0

[Kingarabian]

KingArabian, Just how bad would 10-15 inches of rain be for Yemen? Are we talking catastrophic flooding and mudslides as I suspect?

It's hard to imagine. Yemen will probably get more rain from Chapala than it got in the past 5-7 years total.

I'm pretty sure Chapala will generate more than 10-15 inches. Deep depression 3 in 2008 generated 11 inches in rain and that destroyed the mud brick houses making up a lot of the rural areas in Yemen that were in the depression's path. That deep depression killed nearly 200 people and displaced 20,000. I can't imagine what will happen if this were to make landfall this strong.

Possible that we'll see a Haiyan like aftermath considering Yemen's geography of steep mountains that will enhance mudslides + Yemen being extremely third world + the fact that they will be really unprepared as they've never faced a hurricane of this magnitude.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Traditional BD Dvorak would suggest a DT of 7.0, with an FT of 6.5-7.0 depending on how you handle constraints. Wind-wise, I'd say this is around 135 knots.

[Kingarabian]

Let's not forget that with the IMD doing a piss poor job, and as long as they continue to under forecast this storm, evacuations (if any ) (tell a Yemeni person that a cat.5 will make landfall and he/she will probably laugh in your face) will be delayed.

[Alyono]

KingArabian, Just how bad would 10-15 inches of rain be for Yemen? Are we talking catastrophic flooding and mudslides as I suspect?

It's hard to imagine. Yemen will probably get more rain from Chapala than it got in the past 5-7 years total.

I'm pretty sure Chapala will generate more than 10-15 inches. Deep depression 3 in 2008 generated 11 inches in rain and that destroyed the mud brick houses making up a lot of the rural areas in Yemen that were in the depression's path. That deep depression killed nearly 200 people and displaced 20,000. I can't imagine what will happen if this were to make landfall this strong.

Possible that we'll see a Haiyan like aftermath considering Yemen's geography of steep mountains that will enhance mudslides + Yemen being extremely third world + the fact that they will be really unprepared as they've never faced a hurricane on this magnitude.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Mud, brick? Wouldn't those like dissolve in heavy rainfall?

Is there ANY meteorological agency there? I see that the IMD is not even sending their advisories to Yemen. is this going to be like an old fashioned Bangladesh cyclone where it hits without any warning?

[Kingarabian]

KingArabian, Just how bad would 10-15 inches of rain be for Yemen? Are we talking catastrophic flooding and mudslides as I suspect?

It's hard to imagine. Yemen will probably get more rain from Chapala than it got in the past 5-7 years total.

I'm pretty sure Chapala will generate more than 10-15 inches. Deep depression 3 in 2008 generated 11 inches in rain and that destroyed the mud brick houses making up a lot of the rural areas in Yemen that were in the depression's path. That deep depression killed nearly 200 people and displaced 20,000. I can't imagine what will happen if this were to make landfall this strong.

Possible that we'll see a Haiyan like aftermath considering Yemen's geography of steep mountains that will enhance mudslides + Yemen being extremely third world + the fact that they will be really unprepared as they've never faced a hurricane on this magnitude.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Mud, brick? Wouldn't those like dissolve in heavy rainfall?

Is there ANY meteorological agency there? I see that the IMD is not even sending their advisories to Yemen. is this going to be like an old fashioned Bangladesh cyclone where it hits without any warning?

Easily. Heavy rainfall is one thing... But imagine what 140mph winds will do? Only place I know that has decent building codes is in the capital of Sanaa.

All they have is a weatherman that go on local channel news and they give the forecast. Where they get their forecasts, I don't know. Few friends of mine have told me that their local weathermen have warned that there will be an increased likelihood of rain next week.

[Kingarabian]

I'm afraid it'll go annular at some point and become devoid of any negating factors strength wise.

Banding is almost non existent to the south and it's moderate to the north.

[Alyono]

don't think this goes annular. On microwave, there is a well defined rainband

[Alyono]

EC has shifted south. Could be a close pass to Socotra

[NotoSans]

IMD upgrades it to an extremely severe cyclonic storm and expect it to become a super cyclonic storm.

[Alyono]

This is like the first time, ever, IMD broke Dvorak constraints

[jaguarjace]

Time of issue: 1100 hours IST
Dated: 30.10.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB04/2015/06

Sub: Severe Cyclonic storm ‘Chapala’ intensified into Extremely Severe Cyclonic
storm

The severe cyclonic storm, ‘Chapala’ over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral
Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards, rapidly intensified into a very severe cyclonic
storm at 2330 hours IST of 29th October and further into an extremely severe cyclonic
storm at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th October 2015 and lay centered over westcentral
Arabian Sea near latitude 14.3°N and longitude 61.5°E, about 1320 km west-southwest of
Mumbai and about 850 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move westwards,
intensify further into a super cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and cross north Yemen
and adjoining Oman coast between Latitude 15.0°N and 16.0°N around midnight of 2nd
November, 2015. Due to entrainment of dry air and lower Ocean thermal energy over Gulf
of Aden and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea off Yemen and Oman coast, there is
possibility of slight weakening of the system before the landfall over north Yemen and
adjoining Oman coast.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Slight saving grace should be the relatively low population in the projected landfall area? The flash floods in all those dry river beds (wadis) will be insane too. If this was heading closer to Salalah in Oman I'd have considered jumping on a plane.