http://wx5fwd.org/NWSUpdateNWS UPDATE: Additional Rainfall
Submitted by wd5m on Fri, 2015-10-30 12:52
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From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 30 October 2015 11:28 CDT
Good morning,
The forecast remains on track for a storm total rainfall of 1-3" inches across much of the area today, with round one either still in progress, or winding down. However, the system is not done with north and central Texas just yet. Additional rain is likely through this afternoon and tonight, before exiting the area early Saturday morning. Please see the attachment for additional information about amounts, timing, and the areas which can potentially see bands of heavier rainfall.
BOTTOM LINE:
Additional rainfall is still anticipated for north and central Texas through early Saturday morning. Widespread totals of 1-3" of rain are possible, with isolated areas near 4". There is also a small possibility of a few severe thunderstorms across the area, especially to the south of Waco. Flooding has impacted areas near Austin, so any travel to the south of Temple will be impacted by weather.
AREAS /TIMING:
All areas will still see additional rainfall today, as the rain this morning was only round one. Heaviest rainfall is anticipated to be in the area south of a line from Lampasas...to Marlin...to Franklin. There continues to be the possibility (less than a 20% chance of) localized heavier bands somewhere north and west of this area, see the attachment for details.
IMPACTS:
Localized areas which see more than 3 inches of rainfall will experience flash flooding as well as river/creek rises. Most flooding issues will be caused by locally high rainfall rates and not necessarily the total amount of rainfall. Thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon and evening, so any outdoor events tonight will have the potential for lightning delays.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
Confidence remains high that the entire area will end up receiving 1 to 3 inches of storm storm rainfall through early Saturday morning. Confidence is increasing that the highest amounts will be in the southern areas of our office's area of responsibility. There is moderate confidence that we believe there will be a band of locally heavy rain in areas to the west, but confidence is low as to exact locations.
Note: please remember these emails are intended for planning purposes, typically before the events begin. Please see the following websites for tactical information, or contact us at the office.
USEFUL WEBSITES:
National Weather Service Fort Worth home page
National Weather Service Fort Worth Graphical Warnings
Hourly Forecasts (click to choose your location):
National Weather Service Enhanced Decision Support Page (experimental)
National Weather Service Fort Worth Hazard Pages
Emergency Management Weather Briefing Page
West Gulf River Forecast Center HydroMet Discussion (issued daily by 11 AM)
Hydro Decision Support Tool at WGRFC to create a specific map
As usual, if you have any concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us.
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
unbelievable
