Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

So they said on the news that the official recording station at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport is under water but an LCRA gauge on the southern edge of the airport showed over 14 inches.

Also earlier the lower level of the control tower at ABIA was flooded and control operations were being issued out of the control tower at Houston Intercontinental. I don't remember a time that something like that has happened before.


My current rain amount is 8.12 in.

Yes the official airport ASOS station is under water. I mean you can only report records up to a point where it can't be reported anymore right? So rainfall amounts there after about 9" is estimated, but likely 14-16" I'm curious how they will handle the recording once things clear since Bergstrom is KAUS and is official Austin weather data.



Source: EWX twitter page https://twitter.com/nwssanantonio

That is incredible!!

I looked at t he rainfall map for today to see if my gauge was calibrated correctly. My area is the 3-3.99 inch range. Close to my 4.04. I guess it is right. Just wondered after the reports of 9 to 15 inches.

[Ntxw]

DFW passed 2009 for 6th wettest October on record. MCS is lining up to the west with a quick 1-2". A little over an inch will vault to top 5. 2" and it will be the second wettest October on record.



As Brent mentioned Sunday could see the low wrap up and moisture pulling back behind it. May be a wet, and dreary cool day. 6 weeks later and maybe we could be talking about that being a deformation snow band . This system technically is a bowling ball.

[TexasF6]

Wimberly is flooding very badly again. They are evacuating along the Blanco. Areas along the river south of there need to be on high alert. Could be a repeat of Memorial Day weekend.

Yep, I have some friends trapped at a B&B in Wimberley, but they are safe or were when I last talked to them 2 hours ago. Terrible situation for that whole area. Shuddering at the NWS AFD!!
Hoping we fare a lot better than your area is as this all moves East.

ANY AUSTIN/HILL COUNTRY AREA MEMBERS READING THIS PLEASE LET US KNOW YOU ARE OK. I am not setting up a separate thread at this point, but may if this continues to evolve and get worse.

OK in NW Austin. My road home was closed. I took pictures!!!! What a crazy day. I had a feeling this may happen....

[vbhoutex]

What can Houston expect from this?

The system affecting the Austin area/Hill Country has passed to our NW so far. However more rain is expected to develop overnight and some of that will come through the Houston Metro area. More than likely our worst weather will occur tomorrow morning as the front comes through. At that time we may see some strong storms with winds gusting up into the 50 mph range. Rain amounts for this evening till tomorrow afternoon are expected to range from 2"-6" over our area. Amounts in individual areas will depend on storm intensity and whether the rains/storms set up and start training over the same areas.

[Ntxw]

Big cell north of Del Rio should be monitored with a hooking echo, and the area in general. May be seeing super cell mode as the ULL kicks out

[aggiecutter]

Someone nailed this strong El Nino back in Mid-September.

Post subject: Re: Texas Fall-2015PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:50 pm
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I would expect there will be a lot of severe weather(Tornadoes-Severe Thunderstorms) during mid-late fall and the early winter months.

[Ntxw]

I looked at t he rainfall map for today to see if my gauge was calibrated correctly. My area is the 3-3.99 inch range. Close to my 4.04. I guess it is right. Just wondered after the reports of 9 to 15 inches.

You know it's crazy our standards these days when 3-4" of rain is considered low end. A rainstorm isn't worthy of 2015 unless there is a 10+ total! Most weather systems other years would be considered major if you got a 5" bullseye for a local place.

[1900hurricane]

I'd be on the lookout for another pivoting band tonight. High-res guidence is still grasping at straws with this one.

[Ntxw]

I'd be on the lookout for another pivoting band tonight. High-res guidence is still grasping at straws with this one.

vicinity of warm front/LLJ intersection?

[gboudx]

Jeff mentions the warm front.

Flash Flood Watch effective from 1000pm until 100pm Saturday.

Have taken a good look at all the meso scale models and surface observations late this afternoon in an attempt to resolve what will transpire overnight. An important feature has shown up in the surface observations…a warm front…which extends from College Station to Hobby Airport to offshore of High Island. SW of this boundary dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70’s while NE of this boundary dewpoints are in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Boundary is actually clearly defined in surface obs. Meso models with the exception of the HRRR so little development until Saturday morning, but the HRRR does attempt to fire off convection along the surface warm front around midnight tonight. This would fall in line with an increase in the low level jet as is usual during the overnight period which would add lifting along the boundary.

I am not confident in any of the solutions being offered after the miserable performance across C TX today where widespread 5-10 inches and isolated amounts of 16 inches fell. Austin recorded a staggering 14.53 inches today!

The air mass over the SW ½ of SE TX is certainly similar in moisture content to the air mass over C TX that produced the excessive rainfall (7 inches per hour in some areas)…and that activity was supercells being focused along the northward moving warm front. Less aggressive models likely are keying on to ongoing MCS over the Gulf waters which is helping to prevent inland inflow…however this activity appears to be shifting eastward with inflow increasing over the coastal bend.

If one has not decided by this point, I am not confident, in how things are going to unfold overnight and what the storm totals may look like at this time tomorrow. Think the warm front needs to be watched closely for any development that might want to anchor and also for any SW to NE moving cells that cross the higher low level shear along the boundary which could spin up a tornado. Will follow the squall line event being offered in most of the guidance for early Saturday morning 600am-900am. Main threat with this would likely be damaging winds and weak tornadoes with 1-3 inches of rainfall. The big question is if we get any kind of sustained development before the squall line which would result in cell training and much higher rainfall totals.

Will update again later this evening.

[ravyrn]

Ntxw, can you go over again on how we were on par for the one of the driest October's on record, to one of the wettest?

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner. This is SE TX specific.

Flash Flood Watch effective from 1000pm until 100pm Saturday.

Have taken a good look at all the meso scale models and surface observations late this afternoon in an attempt to resolve what will transpire overnight. An important feature has shown up in the surface observations…a warm front…which extends from College Station to Hobby Airport to offshore of High Island. SW of this boundary dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70’s while NE of this boundary dewpoints are in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Boundary is actually clearly defined in surface obs. Meso models with the exception of the HRRR so little development until Saturday morning, but the HRRR does attempt to fire off convection along the surface warm front around midnight tonight. This would fall in line with an increase in the low level jet as is usual during the overnight period which would add lifting along the boundary.

I am not confident in any of the solutions being offered after the miserable performance across C TX today where widespread 5-10 inches and isolated amounts of 16 inches fell. Austin recorded a staggering 14.53 inches today!

The air mass over the SW ½ of SE TX is certainly similar in moisture content to the air mass over C TX that produced the excessive rainfall (7 inches per hour in some areas)…and that activity was supercells being focused along the northward moving warm front. Less aggressive models likely are keying on to ongoing MCS over the Gulf waters which is helping to prevent inland inflow…however this activity appears to be shifting eastward with inflow increasing over the coastal bend.

If one has not decided by this point, I am not confident, in how things are going to unfold overnight and what the storm totals may look like at this time tomorrow. Think the warm front needs to be watched closely for any development that might want to anchor and also for any SW to NE moving cells that cross the higher low level shear along the boundary which could spin up a tornado. Will follow the squall line event being offered in most of the guidance for early Saturday morning 600am-900am. Main threat with this would likely be damaging winds and weak tornadoes with 1-3 inches of rainfall. The big question is if we get any kind of sustained development before the squall line which would result in cell training and much higher rainfall totals.

Will update again later this evening.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, can you go over again on how we were on par for the one of the driest October's on record, to one of the wettest?

Through the 20th of October (third week or so) most sites across Texas (outside of the panhandle and far west Texas) recorded only a trace or zero rainfall. Past ten days well, I think you know . Attributed I think to the PNA going from positive to negative. I remember back in the winter making a fit about -PNA kicking out systems for us vs a +PNA.

[Ntxw]

[Brent]

Starting to see storms firing back behind the line now... HRRR shows another rain mass coming across most of the region overnight with heavier storms down in areas already hit.

Seeing hints behind that storm next week that some real cold air could invade Texas... CMC has 20's in the Panhandle and widespread 30s in N TX at day 10. Weatherbug as of now just has sunny and highs in the low 60s, lows in the 40s, which is still pretty good.

[Ntxw]

Starting to see storms firing back behind the line now... HRRR shows another rain mass coming across most of the region overnight with heavier storms down in areas already hit.

They are starting to train across southwest counties into southern Tarrant and in Dallas and Collin counties

[Ntxw]

More Records from KAUS 22.08" for the month. Probably an all time monthly record. Also brings the annual rainfall to 55.26" which is likely close to wettest year on record at the airport. Annual average rainfall is about 32"

[dhweather]

Cat 5 in the Gulf? Anyone??


Waiting for the line to reach us, have been watching it traverse the metroplex all evening.

[Ntxw]

Cat 5 in the Gulf? Anyone??


Waiting for the line to reach us, have been watching it traverse the metroplex all evening.

It's been raining sheets but the line hasn't made much progress east, individual storms are moving NE

[dhweather]

As terrible as things are in the Austin area, if that band had set up 20-25 miles to the North, holy cow, the flooding would be unreal.