Texas Fall-2015
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
HAPPY HALLOWEEN
Prayers to your friends TPB. To everyone who's been flooded and to the folks in central Texas.
Should be a nice crisp trick or treating evening for the kids.
As for rain, don't let your guards down yet. The subtropical jet remains strong and will poke it's nose back at us later this week. More on this tomorrow.
DFW as of this morning, is 6th wettest year on record. Number 3, 4, 5 (1973, 1957, and 2007) will likely fall by next week. October ended up as 2nd wettest for that month. I think wettest year on record is very achievable as most long term guidance suggest a top 10 wettest November is possible. For many it already is.
Prayers to your friends TPB. To everyone who's been flooded and to the folks in central Texas.
Should be a nice crisp trick or treating evening for the kids.
As for rain, don't let your guards down yet. The subtropical jet remains strong and will poke it's nose back at us later this week. More on this tomorrow.
DFW as of this morning, is 6th wettest year on record. Number 3, 4, 5 (1973, 1957, and 2007) will likely fall by next week. October ended up as 2nd wettest for that month. I think wettest year on record is very achievable as most long term guidance suggest a top 10 wettest November is possible. For many it already is.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re:
weatherdude1108 wrote:Squall line moving through right with lots of rain, wind, and thunder. Woke us up. Flash flood warning. My dog freaking out!
I woke up with a frantic dog pawing at me when that went through. I got up, put her Thundershirt on her and we both went back to sleep. This morning I woke up and looked at her - she was out of the Thundershirt and using it as a pillow!
We got 1" of rain overnight, 3.5" on Friday and 9"+ (i should have emptied the gauge earlier) last weekend. So we got close to 14" of rain in these last two storms.
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- vbhoutex
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
I AM READY FOR THE RAIN TO STOP!! We've had 5"+ so far this morning and it has started raining again. radar appears to show a secondary line developing over W Houston behind the last line that went through this am. Between the two storm systems that we have experienced in the last week we have had over a foot of rain at my house! AS ALMOST EVERYONE IN TEXAS KNOWS ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!
I guess I better be quiet, it just started pouring again!! 


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Re: Texas Fall-2015
Tomorrow looks increasingly wet especially along and easy of I-35 some Hi res models almost look like a trowal develops
If only this were winter
If only this were winter

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#neversummer
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Flash flood warning in San Antonio.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC029-010430-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0179.151101T0125Z-151101T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
825 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
* AT 822 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SAN
ANTONIO METRO AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER
SOME PLACES. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY ACROSS
AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...
WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK...OLMOS
PARK...SOMERSET...ELMENDORF...LACKLAND AFB...CROSS MOUNTAIN...
CASTLE HILLS...BALCONES HEIGHTS...HILL COUNTRY VILLAGE...
SOUTHTON...MARTINEZ AND MITCHELL LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
&&
LAT...LON 2964 9835 2926 9831 2914 9843 2922 9865
2964 9864

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC029-010430-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0179.151101T0125Z-151101T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
825 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
* AT 822 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SAN
ANTONIO METRO AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER
SOME PLACES. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY ACROSS
AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...
WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK...OLMOS
PARK...SOMERSET...ELMENDORF...LACKLAND AFB...CROSS MOUNTAIN...
CASTLE HILLS...BALCONES HEIGHTS...HILL COUNTRY VILLAGE...
SOUTHTON...MARTINEZ AND MITCHELL LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
&&
LAT...LON 2964 9835 2926 9831 2914 9843 2922 9865
2964 9864
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
0z GFS is crazy after this coming week... it's not overly wet for the Thu/Fri system(only a half inch-two inches for most), but the bigger story is behind that storm... it looks like some true fall air is coming to stay... it even has another cold core low around day 9 with highs possibly in the 50s in DFW for a couple days, and then a big front a couple days later that brings snow to Amarillo at 300 hours

Edited to add, the 0z CMC is in general agreement on the colder air... except it's colder than the GFS. It has lows in the low to mid 30s around N TX on the morning of Monday November 9th... there would likely be at least a frost if not a freeze outside the metroplex on this run. 35 at DFW would almost certainly mean freezing temperatures in the rural areas at least. Highs are very similar to the GFS... a couple days at least in the 50s for DFW.


Edited to add, the 0z CMC is in general agreement on the colder air... except it's colder than the GFS. It has lows in the low to mid 30s around N TX on the morning of Monday November 9th... there would likely be at least a frost if not a freeze outside the metroplex on this run. 35 at DFW would almost certainly mean freezing temperatures in the rural areas at least. Highs are very similar to the GFS... a couple days at least in the 50s for DFW.
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#neversummer
- vbhoutex
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
vbhoutex wrote:I AM READY FOR THE RAIN TO STOP!! We've had 5"+ so far this morning and it has started raining again. radar appears to show a secondary line developing over W Houston behind the last line that went through this am. Between the two storm systems that we have experienced in the last week we have had over a foot of rain at my house! AS ALMOST EVERYONE IN TEXAS KNOWS ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!I guess I better be quiet, it just started pouring again!!
Total for the week is officially(CoCoRaHS)12.96"!!



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Getting a steady light rain. Kudos to the Gfs. Hope this is a precursor of systems deepening crossing the state the next several months
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
Preliminary climate data it appears DFW just missed the top 10 across the board on warmest October.... .8 degrees cooler on average highs than last October(which was in 10th place) .4 on mean temperature and only .1 on warmest average lows.
2nd wettest October confirmed.
and yes, kudos to the GFS on this light rain. It's just now hit 60 degrees.
2nd wettest October confirmed.
and yes, kudos to the GFS on this light rain. It's just now hit 60 degrees.

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
Unfortunately I've not had much time lately to post. Friday was insanely busy with the severe weather and I was involved in emergency response efforts. Let me tell you, driving to work during the Tornado Warning for Travis County Friday morning was quite the experience. It was very evident from the several creek beds that I passed over that flooding was imminent. And we had solid wind gusts downtown near 60 mph with my agency folks, like what weatherdude posted, in the building's basement in shelter.
And I know our scene was repeated in H-town hours later.
The next event has me a bit concerned, especially if the 12z Euro is right and the front stalls and it rains 4-5" over our area again and ...
And I know our scene was repeated in H-town hours later.
The next event has me a bit concerned, especially if the 12z Euro is right and the front stalls and it rains 4-5" over our area again and ...

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Re: Texas Fall-2015
Portastorm wrote:Unfortunately I've not had much time lately to post. Friday was insanely busy with the severe weather and I was involved in emergency response efforts. Let me tell you, driving to work during the Tornado Warning for Travis County Friday morning was quite the experience. It was very evident from the several creek beds that I passed over that flooding was imminent. And we had solid wind gusts downtown near 60 mph with my agency folks, like what weatherdude posted, in the building's basement in shelter.
And I know our scene was repeated in H-town hours later.
The next event has me a bit concerned, especially if the 12z Euro is right and the front stalls and it rains 4-5" over our area again and ...
Also seeing signs of a big rain event after that one around Veterans Day...
From FWD this afternoon:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND RESULT A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. UNLIKE THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTH
TEXAS...THE MID WEEK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO STAY OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SHORTER DURATION OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY
AROUND ON THURSDAY SO THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND
FIRST. THIS PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OVERRUNNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE
STAR STATE.
LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
4 CORNERS REGION AROUND THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER WHICH WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS.
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#neversummer
In other news...El Nino this week is 2.7C! The strongest this early so it is still gaining steam. 1997 (strongest on record) maxes out at 2.8C later in the month. In comparison the most recent big Nino of 2009, the same week was "only" 1.4C
I wish we had records and data/satellite to way back in the 1870s, I'd love to see the match between this event and the possible intense Nino of 1877-1878.
I wish we had records and data/satellite to way back in the 1870s, I'd love to see the match between this event and the possible intense Nino of 1877-1878.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
OK, I've had enough rain now. Had 9.16" a week ago and 7.78" this past weekend. Total rainfall for the year 72.45". Sorry it's been so dry up there in Dallas, Brent. 
Ah, I see Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control sent out an email about yet another heavy rain event for Houston this Thu-Sat. Great...

Ah, I see Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control sent out an email about yet another heavy rain event for Houston this Thu-Sat. Great...
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
wxman57 wrote:OK, I've had enough rain now. Had 9.16" a week ago and 7.78" this past weekend. Total rainfall for the year 72.45". Sorry it's been so dry up there in Dallas, Brent.
Ah, I see Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control sent out an email about yet another heavy rain event for Houston this Thu-Sat. Great...
Have you thought about investing in a waterbed sir? Might settle you in for it. Easy refills.
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Fall-2015
OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE...IT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AND SHOULD FINALLY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG AUTUMN CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ONCE THIS CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARM MOIST AIR BACK OVER THE REGION AND SET THE
STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEEK. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES BY THURSDAY WHICH IS
LESS THAN THE PAST TWO HEAVY RAIN EVENTS....BUT ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO CAPE INCREASING UP TO 700 J/KG AND
0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE SEASONALLY COOL AND
SHOULD LAST INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODIFYING.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS
AROUND MID-WEEK.
Yes models are showing below average temps for NTX next weekend, and again by late next week.

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I would pay some attention to the next system (not this week but the following). Dont think it will be any kind of winter storm outside of the panhandle but could be a game changer.
If you live in up north in the midwest or northeast, plan golf trips. Sea of mild as far as the eye can see, most of the weather will happen across the southern US. Rapid City usually has seen a seasonal bllizzard by now as it is their climo, but nothing of the sort. They've yet to see a major snow. I have a feeling this El Nino will toy and pull hairs for cold lovers up there this year.
It would be funny to see midwesterners watch news of snowstorm in Houston, with little snow up there.
If you live in up north in the midwest or northeast, plan golf trips. Sea of mild as far as the eye can see, most of the weather will happen across the southern US. Rapid City usually has seen a seasonal bllizzard by now as it is their climo, but nothing of the sort. They've yet to see a major snow. I have a feeling this El Nino will toy and pull hairs for cold lovers up there this year.
It would be funny to see midwesterners watch news of snowstorm in Houston, with little snow up there.
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