Arabian Sea: MEGH - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

95A INVEST 151103 0600 13.3N 70.3E IO 15 1010

[1900hurricane]

The placement of the Madden-Julian pulse is really a boon in the Arabian Sea right now. Can't say I remember the possibility of another named system in such rapid succession in the basin before, although I'll readily admit that my knowledge of tropical cyclone history for the Indian Ocean is a little lacking when compared to others.

[jaguarjace]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 68.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 031413Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BECAUSE
THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Grifforzer]

satellite bulletin description message (5:30 AM IST November 4 2015)

Low level circulation over Lakshadweep and neighborhood area intensified into a vortex and now lays centered near 13.9N 69.3E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

[TheEuropean]

ABIO10 PGTW 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/041000Z-041800ZNOV2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
68.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT MSI SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[wxman57]

I think it just about qualifies for a depression today. Westward track toward Somalia is most likely.

[Grifforzer]

The well marked low pressure area over east central & neighborhood Arabian Sea persists. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

[Grifforzer]

ARB05-2015
Bulletin #1
5:30 AM IST November 5 2015

A Depression has formed over east central Arabian Sea and lays centered over east central Arabian Sea near 14.1N 66.0E, about 920 km southwest of Mumbai and 1310 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move west northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

[jaguarjace]

Dated: 05. 11. 2015
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Bulletin No.: ARB05/2015/02

Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea.

The Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved westward at a speed of 14 kmph
and lay centred at 0830 IST of today the 5th November 2015 over eastcentral Arabian Sea
near latitude 14.10 N and longitude 65.60E, about 950 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and
1280 km east-southeast of Salalah (41316), Oman. It would move westwards and intensify
into a Deep Depression during next 24 hrs.

As the system is expected to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather is
expected along and off west coast of India.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 05th November, 2015

05A FIVE 151105 0600 14.1N 64.9E IO 35 996

[euro6208]

Forecast to become almost a category 1 cyclone as it approaches damaged Socotra.

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050221Z NOV 15//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.8N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.5N 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.2N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5N 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.1N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.7N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 64.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM EAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND
WRAPPED INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HORN OF AFRICA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN INTO THE GULF OF ADEN AFTER TAU
96. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITION TEMPERED ONLY BY COOL DRY AIR
ADVECTING FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, LAND
INTERACTION, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOTICEABLE SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE
CYCLONE AND ITS TENTATIVE STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 050230).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPIO10 PGTW 050833

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (W OF INDIA)

B. 05/0830Z

C. 13.99N

D. 64.46E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND OT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 2.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0511Z 14.05N 64.87E MMHS


LEMBKE


TXIO22 KNES 050844
TCSNIO

A. 05A (NONAME)

B. 05/0830Z

C. 14.0N

D. 64.7E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Grifforzer]

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 5 2015

Vortex (05A) over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea has further organized and intensified into a cyclonic storm centered near 14.0N 64.0E.

Dvorak intensity: T2.5 RPT 2.5

Curve band pattern

[jaguarjace]

Dated: 05.11.2015
Time of issue: 1430 hours IST
Bulletin No.: ARB05/2015/04

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘MEGH’, over central Arabian Sea.

The Deep Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved westward at a speed of 15 kmph in past six hours, intensified
into Cyclonic Storm ‘MEGH’, and lay centred at 1200 utc of today the 5th November 2015 over central Arabian sea
near latitude 14.00 N and longitude 64.00 E, about 1090 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and 1120 km east-southeast of
Salalah (41316), Oman. It would move west-southwestwards and intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24
hrs. Thereafter it would move west-southwestwards towards Gulf of Aden.

As the system is expected to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather would occur along
and off west coast of India due to this system.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 05th November, 2015

[Hurricanehink]

Latest JTWC forecast has Socotra island being hit *again* within one week. And unlike Chapala, which passed just north of the island, it might get hit by this new one. Hope they're prepared for the additional rainfall.

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM EAST OF
SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED SLIGHTLY TIGHTER INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINES UP WELL WITH A
LOW REFLECTIVITY LLCC FEATURE IN THE 060337Z F18 PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WRAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HORN OF AFRICA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN INTO WESTERN YEMEN AFTER TAU 72.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TEMPERED ONLY BY COOL DRY AIR
ADVECTING FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, LAND
INTERACTION, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

[WeatherGuesser]

Media is picking up on the 'What . .. Again?' angle.

[Cyclenall]

Media is picking up on the 'What . .. Again?' angle.

Well that's what I'm saying, what is going on in the Arabian Sea? (I know the answer from eariler postings, but the phrase fits ) Could be catastrophic for Socotra island and if it moves just a bit north on its track, back in the Gulf of Aden is another one in just days.

[Alyono]

much worse if it hits Somalia as a hurricane intensity system

[Alyono]

an eye has formed on microwave. So why is IMD forecasting weakening?

It is quite a bit stronger than the 40 kts they are saying

[terstorm1012]

south of socotra too.