2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

1. An elongated area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two.
However, development of this system into a tropical cyclone is not
expected while the low moves slowly toward the east-northeast or
northeast early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

2. Cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 1250 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
a low pressure area embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
several days as the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

Never forget.

[Yellow Evan]

Nope, Patricia is gonna stick with me for a long time. Honestly one of the most shocking nights of my life. Never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd track a 175 knot EPAC hurricane tihs year, or any year for that matter.

[WeatherGuesser]

No shock.
No awe.

Just a big wind. Couple of records. No catastrophe.

Next .... ?

[Yellow Evan]

No shock.
No awe.

Just a big wind. Couple of records. No catastrophe.

Next .... ?

I don't know about you, but I definitely get emotionally invested into these hurricanes, especially one like Patricia. It's more than a couple records, it's something that I've tried to imagine for years.

[Kingarabian]

No shock.
No awe.

Just a big wind. Couple of records. No catastrophe.

Next .... ?

Just a big wind? Also has the lowest pressure ever recorded since Tip.

Maybe you weren't in awe. But 99.9% of the people on this forum were. Even the hardcore Atlantic guys.

[euro6208]

No shock.
No awe.

Just a big wind. Couple of records. No catastrophe.

Next .... ?

Just a big wind? Also has the lowest pressure ever recorded since Tip.

Maybe you weren't in awe. But 99.9% of the people on this forum were. Even the hardcore Atlantic guys.

Super Typhoon Forrest 1983 876 mb.
Super Typhoon Vanessa 1984 879 mb.

I'd say it's the lowest pressure recorded since Vanessa. Everyone likes to use Tip as there starting line.

Sadly no more recon.

[Yellow Evan]

Super Typhoon Forrest 1983 876 mb.
Super Typhoon Vanessa 1984 879 mb.

I'd say it's the lowest pressure recorded since Vanessa. Everyone likes to use Tip as there starting line.

Sadly no more recon.

It's likely this peaked at similar mbar's to Forrest between Recon flights.

[WeatherGuesser]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



--------------------


Guess those next 20 points to break the record aren't too likely.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS seem to be showing a plethora of low pressure areas. GFS showing a lot of shear across the EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a cat.4 in the long range. Formation within 10 days.

[Blown Away]

No shock.
No awe.
Just a big wind. Couple of records. No catastrophe.
Next .... ?

When you see these winds predicted by NHC, as a weather enthusiast, how can you not be in shock/awe? 205 mph is absolutely amazing...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located
about 950 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has diminished during the past 24 hours. Strong upper-
level winds should limit development of this system while it moves
slowly east-northeastward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. A second weak area of low pressure is located about 550 miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The
associated shower activity has become more concentrated during the
past several hours. However, strong upper-level winds are expected
limit development while it moves northeastward or northward during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

3. A third weak low pressure area has developed about 2000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be
slow as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

A few old TWO's so you know how this AOI came about:


1. A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds
should limit development of this system while it moves slowly
east-northeastward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. A second weak area of low pressure has developed about 500 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Strong
upper-level winds should limit development of this system as
well while it moves northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST MON NOV 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds
should limit development of this system while it moves
east-northeastward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Kingarabian]

Next major hurricane on the GFS now within medium range. Shows it possibly affecting Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,Kingarabian ,how you see the rest of the season playing out? I ask because GFS has been back and forth with a big Hurricane for many runs and ECMWF is quiet.

[Kingarabian]

Yellow Evan,Kingarabian ,how you see the rest of the season playing out? I ask because GFS has been back and forth with a big Hurricane for many runs and ECMWF is quiet.

I still think we'll see a storm forming near Mexico before the season ends. The last 3 seasons in the EPAC, we've had storms form right before November started or during November.

The GFS is still showing phantom storms, unfortunately. I think one way to know the GFS is showing a phantom storm is when the Euro consistently does not show a low pressure in that time frame. It's a shame because the GFS at one point was showing major hurricanes going out to sea which would've allowed us to challenge the top ACE mark.

[cycloneye]

GFs continues to show something that goes to Mexico but the question is if it continues to be phantom or for real.It begins to form at 240 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is having MJO forecasting issues. Throw it out.

[Kingarabian]

Euro now showing something in the medium-long range timeframe. Wide re-curve towards Mexico.