Disturbance near Hispaniola/SE Bahamas - is Invest 94L

[cycloneye]

Interesting to say the least.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 17m17 minutes ago
Gulf of Mexico TC threat reducing.. but western sub-tropical Atlantic TC threat up to 50-60% in Calibrated ECMWF EPS

[floridasun78]

ECMWF have it by were other hurr hit bahamas dont need other system http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=624 gfs have same area as http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=624 cmc have turning east of Bahamas

[floridasun78]

NAVGEM doing same as cmc http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=168 jma have it as very weak system http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=168

[gatorcane]

No invest tag on this yet? Kindaof surprised. Looks to be organizing to me.

Is it August or November?

[emeraldislenc]

Will it be an invest later today?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS going with a recurve near the Eastern Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

Should recurve as an inverted surface trough is forecast to develop off the SE. U.S. coast by the end of this weekend, and that should allow this system to have an escape route out to sea early next week.

[Weatherwatcher98]

way too late in the season for a CONUS threat.

[northjaxpro]

way too late in the season for a CONUS threat.

This is true most of the time. But there has been a rare exception to this. Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida Panhandle in late November 1985 . So it is very rare to occur CONUS landfalls in November, but it can happen.

[chaser1]

This feature is interesting. 0Z EURO run as compared to the prior 12Z run looks to push this weak system further south and west. Then, taking a closer look at the GFS 500mb flow around 110-120 hours, there evidence of a ridge building Eastward and extending near/over S. Florida (albiet weak). Obviously there's pleny of factors that need to be taken into consideration whether or not this wave can find a "sweet spot" and develop a decent low level circulation, but looking at it right now, I'd say that it looks like a pretty healthy looking disturbance. Building surface pressures to its north in a few days will serve to enchance the low level convergence. One thing to keep in mind is that W. Atlantic October & Nov. disturbances are often notoriously slow to progress westward and generally slow to develop (on the other hand, look what Patricia just did in the E. Pac)

As I see it, a low level feature may well form as depicted by the EURO (and other models) but will be interesting to see if such development might be either delayed slightly, occur a few degrees further west (as EURO might be trending), or even occur further south near the S. Coast of Cuba in a few days. Should any of the above occur, and of course land interaction aside...., this could pose a set up for an unusual westward moving November depression in the N.W. Caribbean or near the N. Coast of Cuba in 5-7 days.

There certainly isnt enough info here to speculate this as much of a possibility and totally flies in the face of climatology, but I think I'll take out another one of my $1.00 bills and play the "100 to 1 longshot odds against" bet..... that a T.D. will form just south of the S. Cuban coast and then move slowly west to WSW until landfall in the Yucatan peninsula on Nov. 15.

[chaser1]

As a side note, I'd guess NHC might classifiy this disturbance as an invest late tomm. or on Sunday. The difficulty in doing so right now might well lie with the broad nature of the over-all feature at the moment.

By the way, there's clearly another decent tropical wave around 45W and it seems to be racing westward at a pretty good clip. Upper level shear is kicking its butt, but I just found it interesting to see yet another low level wave progressing towards the west as fast as it is this late into the season.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF did shift west some on this run. Not a surprise as models have had a develop and recurve bias this season. With the system as disorganized as it is, it could end up further west than the recurve east of the Bahamas models are showing and may just end up not really organized ultimately due to too much land interaction and not an ideal upper-level environment.

[gatorcane]

Up to 40%:

2. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern
Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the Atlantic is
associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave. Development, if any, during
the next day or two should be slow to occur. However,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable late
in the weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

Here is the closest approach to Florida on the 12Z ECMWF, granted it is nothing strong, maybe a weak TS or gale center, probably with all of the convection on the east side

[Weatherwatcher98]

Climatology is left out to dry this season.

[northjaxpro]

Gatorcane this system will likely be lopsided with the strongest activity on the eastern side of the system as westerly shear will increase early next week.

Hopefully this system will not be a strong one. The EURO run above had this potential system very near the area where Joaquin was over a month ago. God forbid those folks down in the Bahamas definitely don't need any more tropical cyclones inflicting more harm to them.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern
Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the Atlantic is
associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a
west-northwestward moving tropical wave. Development, if any,
during the next day or two should be slow to occur. However,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
by early next week, when the system is forecast to be near
Hispaniola or the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Gustywind]

Numerous damages have been reported in Martinica as floodings very impressive.
Looks like this event should be on Guadeloupe tonight or tommorow. Let's hope that nothing bad happens in the butterfly island and thus in Dominica! Again islanders, be prepared in case of!
Those pics are really impressive, get your belt

http://www.rci.fm/Dispatcher?action=Art ... &id=111075

[Gustywind]

Another impressive pics of these nasty floodings


http://www.martinique.franceantilles.fr ... 331451.php

[Gustywind]

Hope that Dominica is ready to act with this rainy event!

More pics : http://www.martinique.franceantilles.fr ... 331480.php