Florida Weather

[NDG]

Not all El Niños are created equal, I am sure we will get back a wet pattern sooner than later but as long as the NAO & AO remain positive it will be on the warmer than average side.

[psyclone]

I also think of el nino having a bigger influence later in the cold season. it's probably just too soon here at the beginning of November.

[gatorcane]

Not looking good for any cold fronts into South Florida for the foreseeable future, NWS Miami snippet:

SLIGHT DRYING LOOKS TO OCCUR THU-FRI AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE
ENE. SO POPS TREND DOWN DURING THIS TIME...JUST SLIGHTLY. THEN
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POPS TREND UP SLIGHTLY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG WITH THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS DE-AMPLIFY THE TROUGH...SO NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE
FORESEEN TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Not all El Niños are created equal, I am sure we will get back a wet pattern sooner than later but as long as the NAO & AO remain positive it will be on the warmer than average side.

Also to add the MJO is in the Indian Ocean phases which favors the southeast ridge. +AO/NAO doesn't help, and -PNA pumps more heat into Florida.

[gatorcane]

Latest ECMWF is in and shows the 500MB ridge hanging around Florida and the Gulf through day 10 - so no end in summer-like conditions in sight.

Now just beyond 10 days is where the GFS is hinting that finally the ridge collapses and cooler air pushes into the peninsula but it's a long way out still and not to be trusted.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest ECMWF is in and shows the 500MB ridge hanging around Florida and the Gulf through day 10 - so no end in summer-like conditions in sight.

Now just beyond 10 days is where the GFS is hinting that finally the ridge collapses and cooler air pushes into the peninsula but it's a long way out still and not to be trusted.

Today's 00z, 06z, and 12z runs of the GFS dropped that cold front.

[Hurricaneman]

Its going to be mid December before the next cold front mark my words as the pattern seems stuck

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[gatorcane]

Yeah it is pretty unbelievable. Here we are in November and the pattern is something you would see in the middle of summer albeit with temperatures not quite as hot only because the sun angle is not as high. It looks and feels like it is not November out there.

To add to this summer-like pattern there is a tropical wave east of the Leewards that some models are bringing through the Caribbean/Leewards and into the Greater Antilles. Maybe it could even reach Florida and bring some rains, you never know.

There is another area of disturbed weather across the Central Caribbean heading west and probably will head into the Yucatan due to strong ridging across Florida and the Gulf.

Is it really Nov 3rd out there?

[FireRat]

More like Sept 3

you have to ask yourself if we'll see a tropical storm down in the Caribbean this month! I worked outdoors today and sweated like hell, it really looks and feels like we live on the equator this year hehehe

[northjaxpro]

It is like a broken record.... another record maximum temperature set today at the NWS office in Jacksonville, the third day in a row of record temps. I guess it is like we are in August instead of early November right now. This is really insane. When will it cool down? Not anytime soon unfortunately.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT JACKSONVILLE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT JACKSONVILLE
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 2004.

[psyclone]

it's currently 91 at Tampa (KTPA).

[gatorcane]

Yeah it just looks and feels a lot like summer across Southern Florida too. Only thing saving us from extreme heat is the low sun-angle and also winds off the Atlantic. Other than that, not looking like November at all!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hopefully by mid-month things will change some. NAO/AO should go neg. but that to can change on a dime.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

[psyclone]

that 91 @ Tampa was an all time November record. records date to 1890. Then we broke it again and hit 92.

[LarryWx]

I'm in Gainseville, FL, for my 1st time ever this week & it has been like summer with 90 and low 70's dewpoints. So, all daily walks inside on he treadmill this week.

[gatorcane]

Lows near 80F across the SE coast of Florida tonight.

[northjaxpro]

Just missed out on setting another record max temp for a fourth consecutive day in Jacksonville. Maxed out at 86 degrees yesterday, missing the record by 1 degree. We will continue with max temps up into the mid 80s through Saturday. May see at least one more record high before we finally get a "cooldown" on Sunday. A northeasterly wind surge will blow into the Jax area as a cold front moves through our area. A building High entering into the Mid-Atlantic will bring our max temps down to around 70 degrees on Sunday, closer to what we should be having for this time of the year..

[chaser1]

Finally, maybe some kind of a subtle shift in the long wave pattern in sight? Starting in about 216 hours, there seems to be an eastward shift where broader mid level troughing looks to begin to allow colder air to start dropping south in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. Hopefully, the ridging over Florida will have begun to start breaking down so we'll at least see some night-time 50's throughout most of the state in the 8-10 day timeframe. Even still, its way to early to even assume that this might just turn out to be a more temporary blip in the pattern, with the longwave to possibly try and set up back west again.

Regardless, in the nearer term a reminder that the Hurricane Season may well not be over. Between the S. Gulf and the wave over/near the Lessor Antilles, we may well see one more T. S. try and form to our S.E. or south due to this whacky Sept./Oct. pattern we seem to be in.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If the NAO/AO hold true for mid month. Then maybe that will happen

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

[NDG]

Ensembles will have to show even more of its members way in the negative chart for some major pattern change to happen in its long range forecast.
The CFSv2 forecast shows no major pattern change through at least December.