ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[AJC3]

Post away, folks...

[chaser1]

Just to clarify, this is for the invest in the S. Gulf correct? Just wanted to make sure given the other disturbance near Puerto Rico that NHC just upgraded to 40%. I did not know if that was also tagged as an invest too.

[AJC3]

Just to clarify, this is for the invest in the S. Gulf correct? Just wanted to make sure given the other disturbance near Puerto Rico that NHC just upgraded to 40%. I did not know if that was also tagged as an invest too.

Yep. This is the system in the southern GOMEX. I should know this, but I forget if we normally put locations for Invests in the thread titles.

[chaser1]

LOL, no worries. I was thinking the same just as I hit the send button but for some reason just didnt recall if we did clarify the location in the invest title.

(Still, given the more robust 5 day outlook for the disturbance to the east, would have thought that an invest would've been started there too)

[wxman57]

Here are my thoughts:

Forget it, won't develop. Should be merging with the cold front Sunday/Monday. Not a tropical threat.

[northjaxpro]

Here are my thoughts:

Forget it, won't develop. Should be merging with the cold front Sunday/Monday. Not a tropical threat.

Agree.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located over the Bay of Campeche remains disorganized. The low is
forecast to merge with a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico
late Saturday, and significant development of this system is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[northjaxpro]

The one passing through the Leeward Islands currently I feel will be Invest 94L sometime tomorrow. That area will have potential to develop, especially during the Sunday-Tuesday period. Also, that system could get ominously close to areas in the Bahamas recently devastated by Hurricane Joaquin in the next few days.

[Hammy]

Low cloud motion tells me a low center may be trying to form under the convection, possibly aided by the ULL sliding a bit south and decreasing the shear.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with a broad low pressure area centered about 300 miles
southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Some additional development is
possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, the low is
forecast to merge with a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[northjaxpro]

93L looks fairly decent this morning with concentrated convective tops which seemingly is trying to consolidate near the broad circulation center. I also noticed that the system seems to moving more north of west the past 12-24 hours. It is a race as the system is approaching the cold front about to enter the Texas coastal area. The question is will 93L have the time to develop into a fully tropical entity before it merges with the cold front this weekend?

Recon is flying to investigate 93L this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2015110712, , BEST, 0, 232N, 946W, 20, 1009, LO

[wxman57]

It will be merging with the front tomorrow. No tropical development.

[CrazyC83]

It will need to move really fast if it wants to go tropical.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, doubtful on tropical development but gales are possible in the northern Gulf due to pressure gradients.

[cycloneye]

No surprise recon was canceled for today.

Code: Select all

THE SUSPECT AREA MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
      07/1800Z WAS CANCELLED BY NHC AT 07/1330Z.

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure area is centered about 225 miles east-southeast
of Brownsville, Texas. The associated thunderstorm activity is
currently disorganized, and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. However,
there is still some potential for development this afternoon and
tonight before the low merges with a cold front on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Sanibel]

Lacking supporting conditions due to late season.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

An elongated low pressure area located about 150 miles east-
southeast of Brownsville, Texas, is producing disorganized showers.
This system is forecast to merge with a cold front over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico later tonight, and development of
the low is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[Steve]

Bye for sure, but transformers have been lighting up the sky tonight and we had to move my brother's birthday, because the power was out at that restaurant. Remnants and non classified lows are sometimes cool, though this is a combination of a front and a low. Patricia's remnants were much rainier and windier, but there are more blue flashes lighting up the night sky this time.