Arabian Sea: MEGH - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The cold tops are really wrapping around the center now.

[Alyono]

intensifying as it prepares to strike Socotra

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looks more intense than officially tagged. What a season in the Arabian Sea.

[Yellow Evan]

Might be the worst fix I've ever seen from SAB. There is within CMG and the eye in that frame was either LG or MG.

2 KNES 080236
TCSNIO

A. 05A (MEGH)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 12.6N

D. 55.6E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...B EYE EMBEDDED IN W FOR AN E# OF 6.0. EYE SURROUNDED BY
W RING FOR -1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT=5.0. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Grifforzer]

India Meteorological Department 08:30 AM IST November 8 2015

Vortex (MEGH) over west central Arabian Sea and neighborhood now lays centered at 12.7N 55.5E. Dvorak Intensity T5.0 RPT 5.0. Eye pattern (ragged eye). Eye is visible on both infrared and visible imagery.

should be upgraded to extremely severe cyclonic storm at the next advisory..

[Alyono]

I'd give this a 5.5

[Yellow Evan]

From microwave, yea, I'd say about 5.5

From VIS, I'd say about 6.0.

From BD, DT would be 6.5, but likely adjusted down due to constraints. This could IMO be anywhere from 110 to 120 given the kind of symmetry this has a very thick -70C ring and a nice well-defined eye.

[NotoSans]

IMD upgrades it to a very severe cyclonic storm at 03Z, with MSW estimated at 90 kt.

[mrbagyo]

Direct Hit

[TheEuropean]

JTWC now with 110kt, gusts 135kt:

WTIO31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 54.9E

[euro6208]

Incredible...A strong category 3 cyclone hitting Socotra. Never heard that before.

[Grifforzer]

passing close, not landfall?!

India Meteorological Department
At 17:30 PM IST, The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved westwards with a speed of 25 km/h during past six hours, passing close to Socotra Island around 10:30 AM UTC/16:00 PM IST, and now lays centered over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea near 12.7N 53.5E, about 40 km west of Socotra (41494) (Yemen) and 480 km south southwest of Salalah (41316) (Oman).

[Alyono]

hard to think that Yemen is a desert. They are getting rain like they do in a tropical rainforest!

[terstorm1012]

Any news from Socotra? It looks like they took a direct hit

[WeatherGuesser]

http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/yemen/pan ... -1.1616060


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/ ... TD20151108

[HurricaneBill]

passing close, not landfall?!

It definitely made landfall.

[wxman57]

Doesn't appear to have been even a TS at landfall. No convection, questionable LLC. Oh, and the 21Z JTWC advisory has it at 55kts well offshore. I don't see anything at 12.8N/46.8E.