ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Good point about the surface pressures, NDG. One would expect at least a slight decrease if cyclogenesis was occurring.

[cycloneye]

Unless the surface low is south of the main area of convection.

[NDG]

I must add that surface pressures have not fallen across the Turks & Caicos Islands during the past 24 hrs, pressures are high near 1015mb.

Well the center of low pressure would be east of there so the Turks and Caicos would have relative high pressures

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The surface pressures should had been falling by now with the circulation so close to them right now.

[NDG]

Hot off the press, no closed circulation at the surface, at least as of 2 hrs ago.

[wxman57]

Central pressure may be only 1012-1013mb. It's not a very large system, so the Bahama obs may not reflect the LLC.

[chaser1]

It looks to have weakened considerably.

... based on the latest cold towers appearing to pop close to the COC?? Of course, we've yet to determine whether this has worked its way to the surface in any way. I agree with Southdade in that such a small mesoscale type feature, it's quite possible that station obs that are not that far away, might not clearly show the wind direction or pressures to indicate a tiny low might be that close by. If I had to guess, I suppose its simply not quite down to the surface (but i would'nt bet my life on it lol)

[NDG]

Perhaps some slight indications that it is working down to the surface, those stations should had been reporting some westerly or NW winds by now.

[cycloneye]

The real truth about the low will come in a few hours (21z) when the plane gets there and see how is the structure.

[floridasun78]

it look moving nw on sat pic or eye playing trick

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
in association with a low pressure system located just north of
the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. In addition,
satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on
Monday while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward
near or over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible across the Turks and Caicos and
most of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

[chaser1]

it look moving nw on sat pic or eye playing trick

Your eyes are working just fine Looks N.W. to me too

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

As of 18:00 UTC Nov 08, 2015:

Location: 22.1°N 71.4°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[Sanibel]

The wise observer would not ignore that quick improvement in Dvorak in this region. This area spawned an unexpected borderline category 5 hurricane not too long ago.


Very interesting system that might cause an unexpected media interest.


Still, it's moving pretty fast with a hard November front in front of it.

[gatorcane]

I think the surface feature is south of the convection blob with no convection around it at the moment. The blob is racing off to the NW where the spin could be more of an MLC. The GFS takes the surface low WNW then NW into the Central and NW Bahamas.

[tolakram]

Visible loop. Very very small, if anything is there.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[Hammy]

Visible loop. Very very small, if anything is there.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

There appears to be a very tiny (and possibly closed) swirl on the extreme southern end of the convection.

[ozonepete]

While I'm not saying there is a surface circulation, IF there was one, it would likely be quite small, and the stations in the Bahamas probably wouldn't reflect the fact that it existed. I'm starting to see signs of increased inflow from SE.

Yup. That is what I'm thinking. This is so small that it can consolidate an LLC very quickly and very likely is reaching the surface by now. As you said a 37ghz image would be awesome since that's the microwave frequency that gives us a look at the surface and lowest levels. I'm also waiting on some new 89ghz as well since we'll get to see the MLC which is already clearly detectable from the visible sats.

[ozonepete]

Hot off the press, no closed circulation at the surface, at least as of 2 hrs ago.

That is a pretty bad pass. A lot of missing data.

[ozonepete]

While I'm not saying there is a surface circulation, IF there was one, it would likely be quite small, and the stations in the Bahamas probably wouldn't reflect the fact that it existed. I'm starting to see signs of increased inflow from SE.

Yup. That is what I'm thinking. This is so small that it can consolidate an LLC very quickly and very likely is reaching the surface by now. As you said a 37ghz image would be awesome since that's the microwave frequency that gives us a look at the surface and lowest levels. I'm also waiting on some new 89ghz as well since we'll get to see the MLC which is already clearly detectable from the visible sats.

Well of course with RECON on the way we will get al of our answers...

[cycloneye]

While I'm not saying there is a surface circulation, IF there was one, it would likely be quite small, and the stations in the Bahamas probably wouldn't reflect the fact that it existed. I'm starting to see signs of increased inflow from SE.

Yup. That is what I'm thinking. This is so small that it can consolidate an LLC very quickly and very likely is reaching the surface by now. As you said a 37ghz image would be awesome since that's the microwave frequency that gives us a look at the surface and lowest levels. I'm also waiting on some new 89ghz as well since we'll get to see the MLC which is already clearly detectable from the visible sats.

Well of course with RECON on the way we will get al of our answers...

Hi ozonepete.NHC changed their TCPOD this afternoon. (See recon thread) First mission will be at 5 AM EST Monday morning.