Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

Yeah Nuri likely derailed last December dumping all the cold too early and messing with the AO. We have been spared the mildness the rest of the country east of the Rockies. 60s and mostly cloudy sure has more nip than 60s and bright sunshine.

Exactly... there has been temperatures near 80 in Alabama with dewpoints in the mid 70s. I can't really think of worse weather in November lol. They usually have a freeze by now and not even close really.

This is pretty freaking good considering where we were a month ago...

honestly I was totally prepared for a few days pushing 80 here considering it's not even that unusual in November, and other than the severe weather day last week I don't see any signs of it and it becomes more unlikely the later it gets.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hudson Bay blocking showing up in guidance. Look for a major southern plains winterish storm around the 15-20th.

I was coming in to post that!! Hahahaha. Just trying to be like you man ;P

But yes, the blocking is beg to show up in Hudson Bay. Will crank up some big storms. I think we will be pleased with this winter.

[KatDaddy]

Just maybe I will see another white Christmas in NTX this Winter

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You also mentioned in '09-'10. That was the earliest snowfall in Houston on record. Dec 4th. Im expecting a long second half of the winter too. Being patient for when winter will get going.

[newtotex]

Yeah Nuri likely derailed last December dumping all the cold too early and messing with the AO. We have been spared the mildness the rest of the country east of the Rockies. 60s and mostly cloudy sure has more nip than 60s and bright sunshine.

Exactly... there has been temperatures near 80 in Alabama with dewpoints in the mid 70s. I can't really think of worse weather in November lol. They usually have a freeze by now and not even close really.

This is pretty freaking good considering where we were a month ago...

honestly I was totally prepared for a few days pushing 80 here considering it's not even that unusual in November, and other than the severe weather day last week I don't see any signs of it and it becomes more unlikely the later it gets.

I grew up in Tuscaloosa, and when it was 80/70 in November or December, that always meant tornado weather lol. I grew up near Shelton State and lived through the 12/16/00 F4, I was in middle school but I still remember that day very well and how warm and humid it was . That day was partially what started my love affair with severe weather.

[Brent]

Yeah Nuri likely derailed last December dumping all the cold too early and messing with the AO. We have been spared the mildness the rest of the country east of the Rockies. 60s and mostly cloudy sure has more nip than 60s and bright sunshine.

Exactly... there has been temperatures near 80 in Alabama with dewpoints in the mid 70s. I can't really think of worse weather in November lol. They usually have a freeze by now and not even close really.

This is pretty freaking good considering where we were a month ago...

honestly I was totally prepared for a few days pushing 80 here considering it's not even that unusual in November, and other than the severe weather day last week I don't see any signs of it and it becomes more unlikely the later it gets.

I grew up in Tuscaloosa, and when it was 80/70 in November or December, that always meant tornado weather lol. I grew up near Shelton State and lived through the 12/16/00 F4, I was in middle school but I still remember that day very well and how warm and humid it was . That day was partially what started my love affair with severe weather.

Ha... I grew up near Anniston but I have vivid memories of tornado days back there... and yep, this time of year it was never good.

[Ntxw]

Hudson Bay blocking showing up in guidance. Look for a major southern plains winterish storm around the 15-20th.

I was coming in to post that!! Hahahaha. Just trying to be like you man ;P

But yes, the blocking is beg to show up in Hudson Bay. Will crank up some big storms. I think we will be pleased with this winter.

Yeah it shows up pretty good on ensembles. Two areas of blocking we like to look for. First for very cold air is obviously the -EPO, Alaska and NW Canada, second is the area around Hudson Bay/North Central Canada. The second forces systems to dig into Texas and intensify because upstream the pattern is blocked. I can name a couple of DFW footers with the hudson bay block off the top of my head.

[Brent]

That storm early next week could be interesting... GFS has light rain around Sunday and especially Monday and then more widespread heavy rain Tuesday into Wednesday... ending with several inches of rain.

Edit: I must be going crazy because the precip map has several inches of rain while the meteogram all around DFW has generally around an inch or so...

[Ralph's Weather]

That storm early next week could be interesting... GFS has light rain around Sunday and especially Monday and then more widespread heavy rain Tuesday into Wednesday... ending with several inches of rain.

Edit: I must be going crazy because the precip map has several inches of rain while the meteogram all around DFW has generally around an inch or so...

According to recent runs of the GFS that will be a big time near blizzard for the northern NM, SE CO OK and TX Panhandles and SW KS. Around here looks wet and stormy on Tuesday with strong westerly wind.

[Ntxw]

That storm early next week could be interesting... GFS has light rain around Sunday and especially Monday and then more widespread heavy rain Tuesday into Wednesday... ending with several inches of rain.

Edit: I must be going crazy because the precip map has several inches of rain while the meteogram all around DFW has generally around an inch or so...

According to recent runs of the GFS that will be a big time near blizzard for the northern NM, SE CO OK and TX Panhandles and SW KS. Around here looks wet and stormy on Tuesday with strong westerly wind.

The current system coming out is putting blizzard warnings in NE Colorado, NW KS. Going to be the year of blizzards very deep wind driven systems. 2009-2011 had noticeably more blizzard warnings in the southern plains than did 2012-2014

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... mer_30.png

I would not be surprised if that system took a further southern route. There is ridging ahead of it. System behind it raises an eyebrow

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... mer_30.png

I would not be surprised if that system took a further southern route. There is ridging ahead of it. System behind it raises an eyebrow

Have you seen the 0Z Canadian? It takes the southern route dumping 1-2 feet of snow over the Panhandle and even a pretty close call for some snow as it passes overhead here.

[Ntxw]

Have you seen the 0Z Canadian? It takes the southern route dumping 1-2 feet of snow over the Panhandle and even a pretty close call for some snow as it passes overhead here.

It's just bowling ball after bowling ball. The southern stream is quite active, if it keeps trying eventually one will jackpot. I think the winter pattern is being set up.

[TheProfessor]

That 12z GFS makes me wish I lived in Western Nebraska. I get the feeling that the bowling ball storms are going to end when I come back home in December and return after I leave in mid January.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Next weeks bowling ball looks VERY interesting for this time of year. Unfortunately, this could lead to some very severe weather as well.

[TheProfessor]

It's actually grown foggier through out the day today, don't usually see that often, especially here as it doesn't get foggy often, can't even see down town, Visibility is probably around a mile.

[TarrantWx]

384hr GFS has a 1045mb High spilling down the spine of the Rockies with an ULL kicking out of the desert SW. I'm ready to take it to the bank!

[Ntxw]

So far for November DFW has seen 2 clear days and 7 partly or mostly cloudy days. It started 4F above normal first few days but has since come down to 2.7F. With the progged temperatures I think November may end up near average by the third week. What continues to hold daily averages up is the minimums. Cloud cover is not effective for radiational cooling, this may be the result of the overpowering subtropical jet.

The GFS went a little too much QPF happy with those sub 990mb surface lows



This weekend high's may not get out of the 50s

[TheProfessor]

One thing that's weird right now is that the Midwest and Great lakes Region is in a pattern that's more like a La Nina while the Southern U.S is in more of a Nino Pattern, what could be attributed to this?