ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[AutoPenalti]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

Moving NNW looks like.

[CrazyC83]

When is the next Recon mission?

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 75.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF ELEUTHERA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

When is the next Recon mission?

Departs at 19z.


FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA43
A. 10/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0212A CYCLONE
C. 09/1900Z
D. 25.6N 75.9W
E. 09/2100Z TO 10/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[emeraldislenc]

Interesting late season storm!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...KATE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 76.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Kate remains a compact tropical storm, consisting of a small central
dense overcast and fragmented bands mainly to the north and east of
the center. Earlier radar images from the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicated that a partial convective
inner core was forming. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for
this advisory, based on the earlier reconnaissance data, but the
system could be a little stronger. The NOAA hurricane hunters will
be investigating Kate shortly, and will provide a better assessment
of its intensity.

The tropical storm is embedded in a low wind shear environment and
over warm waters. These favorable conditions should allow the storm
to strengthen during the next day or so. After that time, an
increase in shear and cooler waters along the expected track should
cause the strengthening trend to end. Kate is expected to be
absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. The
new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one,
and remains on the low end of the model guidance envelope.

Kate continues to move northwestward near the eastern edge of the
Bahamas. The main steering features consist of a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. A
northward turn is expected tonight when the storm reaches the
western periphery of the ridge, followed by a faster northeastward
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday when the cyclone moves on the north
side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

[NDG]

Looks like Kate's coc is further north & east than estimated on to the last advisory, per the recon.

[Hammy]

Looks like Kate's coc is further north & east than estimated on to the last advisory, per the recon.

Could be starting to wrap up better, though it's odd that they turned SE instead of going through the strongest quadrant.

[wxman57]

Recon indicates two possible centers. There was another area of light winds, possibly a weak circulation, southwest of the main center. Winds generally around 30kts south or east of the center.

[cycloneye]

Winds going up.

053 037 001 00
052 037 003 00

[Hammy]

Recon indicates two possible centers. There was another area of light winds, possibly a weak circulation, southwest of the main center. Winds generally around 30kts south or east of the center.

How possible is it that this is a result of the forward speed and tiny size as well as the islands effect on wind direction?

[CrazyC83]

Recon indicates two possible centers. There was another area of light winds, possibly a weak circulation, southwest of the main center. Winds generally around 30kts south or east of the center.

How possible is it that this is a result of the forward speed and tiny size as well as the islands effect on wind direction?

Perhaps there is a remnant MLC or something there that was overtaken by the main center?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KWBC 092216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122015
A. 09/22:05:25Z
B. 26 deg 15 min N
075 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1488 m
D. 48 kt
E. 080 deg 22 nm
F. 152 deg 53 kt
G. 080 deg 23 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1545 m
J. 21 C / 1526 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 1 / 3 nm
P. NOAA3 0212A KATE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT 080 / 22 NM 21:59:13Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 07 KTS

[NDG]

Recon indicates two possible centers. There was another area of light winds, possibly a weak circulation, southwest of the main center. Winds generally around 30kts south or east of the center.

How possible is it that this is a result of the forward speed and tiny size as well as the islands effect on wind direction?

Perhaps there is a remnant MLC or something there that was overtaken by the main center?

No second center found on the last recon pass, I think there was a reformation/relocation of the center as it was found further north and east than the coc that the NHC had estimated it to be at 4 PM's advisory.

[cycloneye]

Final pass of the NOAA mission coming.

[cycloneye]

Based on the data IMO leave it at 40kts or go up to 45kts. The Max was 53kts.

[Hammy]

VDM surface winds of 48kt could be rounded up to 50kt which would put it at 60 mph.

[HurricaneBelle]

WTNT32 KNHC 092342
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
700 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...KATE PASSING EAST OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Kate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Kate will move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kate are affecting the eastward-facing
beaches in the northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

[Sanibel]

Good burst.