Texas Fall-2015

[gpsnowman]

So 18Z GFS is stronger next week with the low and with the EC ridge, but it sends the low NE instead of E like the 12Z did so no winter fun this round.

Nuri last November really helped us get things going. This year it looks like we have to wait for the orthodox progression of things to bring us cold and wintry type weather. I do believe the wait will be worth it due to the southern jet with El Nino. The local weather channels are offering not much hope in regards to the next seven days. Dang it, I want to feel some cold air. Craving it.

[Brent]

so close

[gpsnowman]

so close

Looks like a trip to northern Kansas is in order. The maps are looking prettier and prettier. Brent, you are correct, the 80's today were just nasty. Felt like early May.

[Ntxw]

It's still about a week away in terms of trying to pinpoint track. Either way it's not a high probability of wintry precip but I do like that it is trying. Models don't see the cold air work it's way into these kind of systems anyway until within 24-48 hours. For instance at the surface it sees middle 40s, 850s some -4C which is sufficient 5000ft above our heads.

Through next Weds it will feel very fall like, won't be much full sun...maybe a few hours Friday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah its a cold core no doubt, underneath it will produce snow. Ryan maues tweet yesterday showed an arctic connection too

[Ntxw]

Interesting the lake effect snows off Tahoe into Reno earlier this week. Well more lake enhanced if anything. I propose we expand Lake Texoma by four fold

http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/11/10/biggest-little-city-world-sees-huge-lake-effect-snow/

[Brent]

so close

Looks like a trip to northern Kansas is in order. The maps are looking prettier and prettier. Brent, you are correct, the 80's today were just nasty. Felt like early May.

The 6z was closer with that ridiculous bullseye

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Well to be fair to everyone else, that's pretty much what all others are forecasting. Basic El Nino climo . Different flavors of the same thing! One of the easiest forecast in years.

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z GFS similar to 18Z though even deeper with the low. We get storms Tuesday morning then cool air rushes in during the day. Look for Tue and Wed to be much cooler than forecasted right now. The low moves NNE slowly from the Panhandle on Tuesday to Iowa on Thursday. To me our shot for winter weather would be if the New England ridge sets us off the coast instead which should make our system take a flatter path east.

[Brent]

OMG the storm at 372-384 hours would be a Black Friday surprise.

[SouthernMet]

Brent beat me to it

[Ralph's Weather]

OMG the storm at 372-384 hours would be a Black Friday surprise.

Looks fun. Overall message is winter is now open for business. Our weekly storms now have chances to include frozen precip. Not all will produce but some will. Also we are into storm season again especially over E TX with these dynamic lows.

[Brent]

OMG the storm at 372-384 hours would be a Black Friday surprise.

Looks fun. Overall message is winter is now open for business. Our weekly storms now have chances to include frozen precip. Not all will produce but some will. Also we are into storm season again especially over E TX with these dynamic lows.

Even before that storm... the 0z GFS has much below normal temperatures starting at day 10... with some lows near freezing around DFW and highs in the 40s or low 50s mostly. The 372 hour storm starts as a cold rain on Thanksgiving Day.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a powerful negative tilted trough moving out of the Southern Rockies Sunday into Monday and marching across Texas and Louisiana into Tuesday. If these trends continue, except to see all modes of severe weather possible including a threat for super cells and a possible tornado risk across portions of Central, East, SE Texas extending into Louisiana next Monday into Tuesday.

In the wake of this powerful late Fall/early Winter storm, expect the coldest air of the Season to spread South all the way to the Gulf Coast mid to late next week. Stay tuned folks. This storm system has the potential to be a Major Weather event across the Region.

[Portastorm]

In lieu of the overnight 0z GFS operational run, the Portastorm Weather Center meteorologists have placed the season's first order of Grey Goose online from manufacturers with hopes that said supply can be kept cold outside.

As srainhoutx said ... stay tuned.

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone make the 30s last night? I had 44. Better chance tomorrow morning.

[Tireman4]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a powerful negative tilted trough moving out of the Southern Rockies Sunday into Monday and marching across Texas and Louisiana into Tuesday. If these trends continue, except to see all modes of severe weather possible including a threat for super cells and a possible tornado risk across portions of Central, East, SE Texas extending into Louisiana next Monday into Tuesday.

In the wake of this powerful late Fall/early Winter storm, expect the coldest air of the Season to spread South all the way to the Gulf Coast mid to late next week. Stay tuned folks. This storm system has the potential to be a Major Weather event across the Region.

Stepping down, maybe?

[Ntxw]

I'm going out on a limb and make a bold forecast that Austin will see freezing drizzle within the next 6 weeks.

[Portastorm]

I'm going out on a limb and make a bold forecast that Austin will see freezing drizzle within the next 6 weeks.

I'm afraid you're right, sir. We take our moniker of "Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas" seriously around here.