WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Nov 12, 2015:

Location: 4.6°N 172.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

Not much support in the models but NWS of the region is monitoring this...

A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF MAJURO--
JTWC INVEST 95W-- MAY BE A FACTOR IN MARIANAS WEATHER IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW THE MODELS TEND TO
WEAKEN IT OVER TIME... BUT IT COULD STILL GIVE A BOOST TO THE
CONVERGENCE THAT MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.0N 170.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. A 140241Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A 132145Z ASCAT IMAGE ONLY SHOWS A DEFINED,
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NWS:

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOMEWHAT MORE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF
MOVES A TIGHT CIRCULATION OVER SAIPAN SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
GFS MOVES A LARGER AND WEAKER CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF GUAM ON
THURSDAY. BUT NEITHER MODEL BRINGS ANYTHING APPROACHING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS--NOT YET AT LEAST. WITH THE MODELS IN RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN...UNCERTAINTY
LEVEL IS RATHER HIGH. ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR/MARINE ACTIVITIES
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP TABS ON 95W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to gain more model support. Pretty much right on cue, the WPac is beginning to wake up.

[euro6208]

NWS:

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CENTERS ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT ALL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER AND PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FORECAST
ZONES TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS FOR NOW TO PAINT THE GENERAL
PICTURE. BROUGHT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. REALIZE THAT
THERE WILL BE MESOSCALE VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH AND THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE
FORECAST AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN...BUT
ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
CONSOLIDATING.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 170.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 150224Z GCOM 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, IN GENERAL, ONLY
REVEAL WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO getting more robust with this.

12Z peaks it typhoon strength first time and 00Z now brings a tropical storm to Guam and peaks it stronger as it recurves.

[euro6208]

GFS is much more conservative and brings only a strong disturbance south of Guam and who knows what will happen as it recurves east of the Ryukyu Islands. Some runs strengthens it to a typhoon, some a tropical storm, and some barely even develops it

[cycloneye]

Looking much better.

[cycloneye]

The GFS ensembles recurve after it moves thru the Marianas.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 160800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 168.1E TO 7.8N 160.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 167.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
166.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 167.5E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH
OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160445Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY
REVEALS A MORE PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS AND
ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170800Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 160926

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (W OF MAJURO)

B. 16/0830Z

C. 5.66N

D. 166.50E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0348Z 5.48N 166.52E SSMI
16/0445Z 5.20N 166.63E SSMS


LEMBKE

TXPQ29 KNES 160935
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 16/0832Z

C. 5.1N

D. 165.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS JUST OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 160706
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM CHST MON NOV 16 2015

PMZ172-173-174-170100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
500 PM CHST MON NOV 16 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 5N166E WHICH IS ABOUT 180
MILES EAST OF KOSRAE...280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN AND 500
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING KOSRAE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR KOSRAE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IS
LIKELY NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA FROM KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES TO
EASTERN CHUUK STATE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD.

RESIDENTS OF KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND PAY ATTENTION TO LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES. IN
ADDITION STAY INFORMED WITH THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON/EDSON/GUARD

[euro6208]

JMA does briefly strengthens this to a short lived tropical storm after it passes south of the Marianas.



NAVGEM brings a strengthening In-fa anywhere from south of Guam to over Rota as per latest run and recurves it.



CMC is trending stronger, brings a typhoon over the Rota channel between Guam and Saipan.

[euro6208]

EURO is 3 mb stronger as it passes In-fa slightly a little bit south of Guam, 995 mb, and peak still in the 70's recurves.




Latest GFS is stronger now as it passes over Guam, a possible weak TS, and peaks this at 951 mb as it recurves. Slightly weaker from earlier runs.

[cycloneye]

Ready to go boom.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 161832

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (W OF MAJURO)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 4.49N

D. 165.21E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 161921
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 AM CHST TUE NOV 17 2015

PMZ172-173-174-170700-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
500 AM CHST TUE NOV 17 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 4N165E WHICH IS ABOUT 165
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE...375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
AND 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KOSRAE WILL CAUSE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN FOR KOSRAE STATE LATE TODAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IS
LIKELY NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA FROM KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES TO
EASTERN CHUUK STATE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD.

RESIDENTS OF KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND PAY ATTENTION TO LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES. IN
ADDITION STAY INFORMED WITH THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

M.AYDLETT

[1900hurricane]

Still riding quite low at the moment, but definitely gaining organization.