2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM shows some kind of system too near the Bahamas but doesn't really look tropical. The 00Z ECMWF showed something as well, but not tropical looking.

It's long-range but with all of the models showing something, it seems some kind of system may try to form mid to late next week near or east of the Bahamas. Question is will it be tropical?

[gatorcane]

Hmmm the 12Z ECMWF is showing the system (albeit on the weak side) moving WNW in the Southern Bahamas in the long-range. Interesting indeed.

[cycloneye]

The expert chimes in about what the models are hinting.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 1m1 minute ago
Hard to believe but models latching onto another TC chance in a week or so. W Atlantic ridge + warm SSTs > #ElNino?

[Steve H.]

Gator, where is the Euro model now? The old site is gone and the tidbits link stopped working. Do you have a link please?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF from PENN state site at 240 hours is showing the low moving WNW in the Bahamas. The low looks to start taking shape just north of the Puerto Rico and Leewards by hour 168. Note it is long range and subject to large errors.

[WeatherEmperor]

Gator, does it look purely tropical or hybrid on the Euro? I cant tell


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[chaser1]

Is that unsettled weather in the western Caribbean possibly a candidate for future development?

HAPPY VETERENS DAY, ALL!

So, as of today nearly every global model showing a developed low approaching the Bahamas from the east. GFS is showing this feature by 168 hours, EURO by 240 hr.'s, GEM by 210 hr.'s, NAVGEM by 180 hr.'s

At this point, i'd guess that we'll see at least one more tropical cyclone reach T.S. intensity. Frankly, I think we'll see 2 more systems (1 potentially out of season in early December)

[chaser1]

Saw that one or more were seeking links for the EURO model. Try these.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=240

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/chart ... %20America

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi called this scenario yesterday afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Hmm 18Z GFS similar now to the 12Z ECMWF on low position at 240 hours, only the upper-air pattern over the Western Atlantic and East Coast of the U.S. is far different - of course it is still 240 hours out, so not a surprise the GFS and ECMWF are disagreeing (ECMWF has a huge ridge over the Western Atlantic).

Almost seems like a mid/upper-level feature that forms north of Puerto Rico / Leewards area and evolves into something at the low-levels in a similar way that spawned Joaquin and in a similar location (though models showing nothing like what Joaquin became, though models only showed a strong Joaquin once the runs got into medium-range). Not even sure if that is a purely tropical system or not, looks hybrid at least initially. Seems like an odd setup for November but interesting nonetheless.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM, similar to the ECMWF but faster on the progression of this feature:

[SFLcane]

[CourierPR]

SFL Cane, what you posted is not there.

[northjaxpro]

Hard to say initially if it will be tropical. SSTs are still very warm in that region and I probably would hedge that starting out it may be tropical. However, one big thing I see in the 240 hr GFS run above is that huge, modified Arctic dome, 1040 mb HP dropping down into the Central Plains at the end of the run. That would be truly the first real shot of cold air to drop down into the Eastern CONUS if it verifies. We shall see.

Whatever tries to form down near the Bahamas region next n week will turn poleward in advance of the storng cold front at the end of the 10 day period, and would bring more rain near or possibly over the Florida peninsula mid to late next week. I am leaning that this entity will probably stay out to sea like Kate did if that front is as strong as being depicted on the GFS run.

Still amazing seeing potential tropical systems still brewing this late in the season. This El Nino has been really something to study this year I can assure you.

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFS is showing a possible (sub)tropical cyclone forming due to forcing from a PV streamer (upper low) that is the result of an anticyclonic wave breaking event over eastern North America. If genesis does occur with this scenario, it will like be subtropical initially, but could transition into a tropical cyclone. This is a very complex upper level pattern and slight differences in the orientation of this PV streamer have huge differences on the outcome of a possible TC. The latest GEM and EC no longer show this TC.

[wxman57]

Gator, where is the Euro model now? The old site is gone and the tidbits link stopped working. Do you have a link please?

I see the ECMWF on Tropical Tidbits. Fortunately, I get the full-resolution Euro in 3-hr increment timesteps on my workstation.

00Z Euro has nothing at all near the Bahamas through 240hrs. GFS indicates tremendous wind shear across Florida & the Bahamas over the next 2 weeks. Tropical development there is unlikely.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015111200&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=0

[WeatherEmperor]

Gfs now stands alone in showing low pressure formation as the 12z Euro, Cmc and Navy show nothing


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[Frank2]

Looks like we might have one more to go - also, what about that monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean?

[Weatherwatcher98]

Season seems to be coming to a close. No Euro support.

[Brent]