2015 Global model runs discussion

#1881 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 1:38 pm

12z Euro pushes a weak low into Central America and nothing further.

We have seen this story before. Gfs, Canadian and Navy models show development but not the Euro. Will the Euro be right again?

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#1882 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 2:40 pm

Looks like a pretty robust system looking at the GFS simulated IR. This would be devastating to Nicaragua and Honduras.

floridasun78 · #1883 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 2:42 pm

hope not because that holiday week we dont need hurr that week

TheStormExpert · #1884 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 3:01 pm

floridasun78 wrote:hope not because that holiday week we dont need hurr that week

It wouldn't have a chance to head north due to all the ridging.

#1885 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:45 pm

18z Gfs develops a TS and send into central america...and is now in line with the Euro. Whatever forms will most likely get blocked from coming north. Only Canadian and Navy models bring a cyclone north to the NW Caribbean

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Weatherwatcher98 · #1886 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 6:16 pm

No threat to the CONUS. And no model support that is reliable

#1887 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:47 pm

Parallel GEFS, which is normally conservative is quite bullish:

blp · #1888 Postby **blp** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:13 pm

Good catch, interesting. One thing is clear conditions are going to be favorable per the models. Land interaction will be the main impediment. Any deviation in genesis that keeps this over water longer could also this to ramp up quickly.

FWIW, the FIM is blowing this up like the CMC.

FireRat · #1889 Postby **FireRat** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:48 am

Might still be too soon to tell if whatever forms will get buried into Central America IMO. This is late November time frame and it is likelier to have something get pulled northeast rather than west like in September, early October, especially if a strong front comes southeast before Thanksgiving and the ridge erodes. who knows, maybe we do see this go into Central America in this wacky 2015 season, might be interesting days ahead per the models.

#1890 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:56 am

IMO NHC is mum about it as they consider it a fake by GFS. Things can change if ECMWF begins to show it like GFS is showing.

#1891 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:15 am

The GFS and ECMWF appear to agree now on the evolution of this potential system which is: slow development in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Nicaragua/Costa Rica then a slow movement west where the system emerges into the EPAC and develops into a cyclone moving W or WNW parallel the coast of Mexico. The ECMWF is faster than the GFS though.

What's impressive to me is how strong of a sprawling low to mid-level ridge the GFS and ECMWF are showing that spans the Western Caribbean and Yucatan area which would prevent anything that forms in the SW Caribbean to get blocked from moving northward. Doesn't look like mid November at all with that kind of ridge, likely related to the record El Nino I would think.

blp · #1892 Postby **blp** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 10:20 am

I think the ridge is not that strong when it gets pushed into the EPAC. What I see is from 96-144hrs a trough approaches from the Midwest but instead of heading SE it moves NE over top a skinny ridge that develops. There is just not enough weakness to get the system out especially if it is weak and that far South. The Euro is the weakest and quickest into the EPAC following the low level flow while the GFS is stronger and hangs around a little longer feeling the weakness a bit before heading to the EPAC. Only chance it stays out of EPAC is if it ramps up much quicker than expected and develops a little further north allowing it to move into the NW Carribean where it has room to wait for the next trough to pick it up.

#1893 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 11:59 am

Latest GFS really ramps this up in the EPAC in the long-range:

#1894 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:33 pm

Still no mention by NHC.

blp · #1895 Postby **blp** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:59 pm

It might be reading this wrong but the 12z has a strong trough now over the east coast which was not present on previous runs or the Euro for that matter. You would think that trough would lift it up even from the EPAC.

floridasun78 · #1896 Postby **floridasun78** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 1:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still no mention by NHC.

tooooooo early to put circle on map even we do get one

#1897 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:33 pm

blp wrote:It might be reading this wrong but the 12z has a strong trough now over the east coast which was not present on previous runs or the Euro for that matter. You would think that trough would lift it up even from the EPAC.

Wasn't 1925 a strong El Nino as well? That year had such a storm at season's end.

#1898 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:32 pm

^Yes, 1925 was the start of a strong Niño.

floridasun78 · #1899 Postby **floridasun78** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:41 pm

what i see models run that their move area suppose form sw Caribbean to west into east pac

#1900 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:57 pm

The 18Z GFS Ensembles are bullish with most ensemble members keeping the system stationary in the SW Caribbean and keeping whatever forms on the Atlantic side without moving it into the EPAC: