Convection North of Panama

[gatorcane]

The global models are in general agreement of a low pressure area forming somewhere north of Panama and east of Nicaragua/Costa Rica this week. The latest ECMWF develops a cyclone in the SW Caribbean, while the GFS has shown a cyclone developing in most of its recent runs. The ECMWF and GFS suggest the area could eventually crossover into the EPAC though it looks to be a slow crossover process. Deep convection is on the increase this evening.

Latest SAT loop:

[blp]

18z GFS para ensembles has made a big shift from 12z which was in the EPAC back to Atlantic side.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have developed over much
of the southwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area
of low pressure. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible over the next few days while it moves little or drifts
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[gatorcane]

About time NHC mentions it though the GFS and Euro seem to suggest the EPAC

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117715&hilit=

[cycloneye]

I didn't see it but merged my topic with yours.

[gatorcane]

Most of the GFS Ensembles have this low pressure area lingering in the SW Caribbean for quite a while:

[gatorcane]

Latest SAT loop, pretty distinctive spin in that convection area more east:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[northjaxpro]

Strong ridging across the ECONUS and Western Atlantic later in the period(end of week) will likely move this system into portions of Central America or possibly into the Eastern Pacific.

[Sanibel]

Been on it for a few days now. Conditions look marginal.

[Hurricanehink]

Doesn't look as likely now.

Cloudiness and a few thunderstorms located over portions of the
southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a weak area of low
pressure. This system is likely to drift westward and move
inland over Central America during the next day or two without
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Sanibel]

Like with Patricia the Pacific grabs the deepest part of the wave.

[Alyono]

I have to say, this looks semi-decent today. Decent rotation and inflow

[gatorcane]

Yeah the low-level vorticity has become more defined, shear looks to be decreasing...

[Sanibel]

That giant Low by Bermuda wiped out the basin.