Texas Fall-2015

[bullockrobinson]

The local Austin guys are showing pretty mild/warm temps next week through Thanksgiving weekend. Guess they arent buying in to the models?

[JDawg512]

The local Austin guys are showing pretty mild/warm temps next week through Thanksgiving weekend. Guess they arent buying in to the models?

I would say so given that we are still pretty far out.

[Ntxw]

Some fun Euro Ensemble runs (snow)

#49: Freezing Drizzle for Austin
#28: Snow for Austin (with freezing drizzle)
#32: Texas closed for winter (likely freezing drizzle with a little snow ontop KAUS)
#39: NTX special, freezing drizzle for Austin
#48: Flurries, FZDZ KAUS

[Ntxw]

But seriously, the past 2 winters the most memorable events (snow aside) was the severe -EPO block episodes. The two (arguably) greatest deviations was early December 2013 and mid November (nuri) 2014. This looks every bit as potent as those two. You can look back at those threads and see those deep oranges and reds near Alaska many many days in advance.

Worth saying again, the -EPO will beat the models

[Portastorm]

Some fun Euro Ensemble runs (snow)

#49: Freezing Drizzle for Austin
#28: Snow for Austin (with freezing drizzle)
#32: Texas closed for winter (likely freezing drizzle with a little snow ontop KAUS)
#39: NTX special, freezing drizzle for Austin
#48: Flurries, FZDZ KAUS

See?! I knew it, I knew it, I knew it.

[kenfa03]

Anybody ever go to weather underground forum? I called out one of the moderators for applauding the Halliburton plant being destroyed and got banned from the site.

[TarrantWx]

18z GFS shows a rather long duration ice storm over western and north Texas the Sunday after TG through Tuesday. Makes sense with a shallow arctic airmass spilling into the area. That seems to fit the general idea of a strong -EPO. Something to keep an eye on.

[Ralph's Weather]

18z GFS shows a rather long duration ice storm over western and north Texas the Sunday after TG through Tuesday. Makes sense with a shallow arctic airmass spilling into the area. That seems to fit the general idea of a strong -EPO. Something to keep an eye on.

That is my fear with this. I would love a good snow, but the shallow cold could mean ice before snow.

[northjaxpro]

18z GFS shows a rather long duration ice storm over western and north Texas the Sunday after TG through Tuesday. Makes sense with a shallow arctic airmass spilling into the area. That seems to fit the general idea of a strong -EPO. Something to keep an eye on.

I agree. WPC is latching onto this possible scenario as well for the weekend following Thanksgiving (Nov 27-29) I would advise to monitor this situation closely for my fellow Storm2Kers living out in North Texas and in Oklahoma over the coming days for this potential.

[Ntxw]

Yeah a pattern like that, with our very strong subtropical jet, often does spell ice. Especially if that west coast storm comes out in pieces then it would be an overrunning fest. WPC has colder than normal along with good confidence of above normal precipitation.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah a pattern like that, with our very strong subtropical jet, often does spell ice. Especially if that west coast storm comes out in pieces then it would be an overrunning fest. WPC has colder than normal along with good confidence of above normal precipitation.

Yes indeed Ntxw, that set-up could be potentially nasty. Definitely something for you all out there to watch late next week.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z NAM and GFS suggest the next front will have a bit of a bite with it regarding colder air as well as showers both pre and post frontal Saturday afternoon. Temperatures look to drop into the 40's across our Region during the early afternoon/evening Saturday. There is also a good swath of snow expected across Colorado into the Plains. Tis the season...stepping down...

Great post! It's not winter until Srain says those words.

There is real truth to that. We're discussing much medium to long range "blasts" but really that is towards the end of the maturing -EPO episode. Heights are slowly rising in Alaska (I feel like a broken record saying this). The wheels setting up have been set in motion, this sends our first front this weekend, in a series of fronts. Each a little more potent than the one before. The height rises there by Thanksgiving matures to a rex block sending another big cold front. Followed by the ridging poking it's nose further north in Alaska for another big cold front (TG weekend). That final front is liable to be the long duration colder blast.



It amazes the least understood index is one of the most important cold drivers through North America. Countless papers on AO, NAO, PNA, etc and charts, numbers galore. But for the EPO you have to dig to find the numbers or any papers. I mean it's like the one winter index that if everything else says one thing it will own them all. It is virtually the key ingredient to pretty much all of the superb arctic attacks on the continent (1985 being the lone standout I can find but the EPO was vey negative just the AO/NAO was even more negative). Somebody needs to go write a paper on it, McFarland can't be the only one who saw the connection.

[Brent]

Almost looks like some storm in the EPAC recurves as the cold air floods in and moisture overspreads Texas in the Nov 30-Dec 1 timeframe...



This run is slower with the Thanksgiving front

A bit chilly:

[TarrantWx]

Wow... Just wow...

0Z GFS went bonkers. In addition to the surface temperature maps that Brent posted check out that -EPO signature over Alaska and the 1055-1058mb arctic high crashing out of Canada with an ULL producing lift over the Southern Plains. One difference in this run is that it shows the High so strong that it dries us out and precip rates look lighter. However, with an El Nino at record levels I'd bet that there would be more moisture than what the GFS shows.

-EPO!



Resulting Arctic High 2 days later

[Brent]

Just to add on to this... the 0z GFS meteogram for DFW has temps below freezing for 3 days near the end of the run... and lows well down into the mid teens.

After highs in the mid 60s on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the warmest day is a high of 46 and then it's down from there...

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z sure does look very classic -EPO and I agree that the STJ would likely produce more precip than shown.
06Z looks +PNA with the trough sliding east. Followed by a system with no cold air left. I will discount this run as it is so different from previous runs.

[TheProfessor]

Some of the GFS runs don't want me flying back to Ohio after Thanksgiving lol.

[Ntxw]

It's going to be a little chilly this weekend with highs spending most of it in the 40s north and 50s south. First freeze for many near the I-20 corridor. It's about climo to freeze so shouldn't shock plants that much.

Also as a reminder on Dec 1st we will do our seasonal migration to the Texas winter thread for DJF

Much thanks to all who contribute to the Texas threads

[1900hurricane]

Most of the talk has been about the cold air following the system around Thanksgiving, but the actual system itself looks like it could bring another heavy rain event accompanied by perhaps some severe weather. Models are once again hitting at low level trajectories off the Caribbean and with upper level moisture streaming in from an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone (which would be extremely late season at this point) carried by strong SW flow aloft. If we get a slow moving surface boundary in the right place, the floodgates will likely open up above someone.

[Ntxw]

You are right, we look so much for the winter side we forget to look before it. It is a heavy rain signal for some, CPC has most of us outlined high confidence for precipitation. The EPAC hurricane has also been consistent.