2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Euro now showing something in the medium-long range timeframe. Wide re-curve towards Mexico.

In fact 12z run shows a Hurricane going to Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Euro now showing something in the medium-long range timeframe. Wide re-curve towards Mexico.

In fact 12z run shows a Hurricane going to Mexico.

Yeah, unfortunately. Starts developing in 6 days. So I expect to see a marker soon if the NHC thinks it's warrented.

[WeatherGuesser]

Enough for that final ACE bump to get over the top?

[Kingarabian]

Enough for that final ACE bump to get over the top?

Doubt it. Unless it intensifies stronger than expected and tracks more west. However, more importantly, this could be devastating if it hits Mexico.

[gatorcane]

Looks like some more ACE for the EPAC if this verifies:

[Yellow Evan]

Both the ECMWF and GFS have something forming in the EPAC around Thanksgiving. Something to to watch, though I kinda doubt it.

[Kingarabian]

Both the ECMWF and GFS have something forming in the EPAC around Thanksgiving. Something to to watch, though I kinda doubt it.

Nino is still raging so it's a good possibility. Looks like our Q system may also hit hurricane status. If our R storm becomes a major and sits for a while, then 1992 should fall.

[Yellow Evan]

Both the ECMWF and GFS have something forming in the EPAC around Thanksgiving. Something to to watch, though I kinda doubt it.

Nino is still raging so it's a good possibility. Looks like our Q system may also hit hurricane status. If our R storm becomes a major and sits for a while, then 1992 should fall.

They don't use Q.

I don't think the next storm will be too much, given that a system heading NE in this basin is likely to encouter strong wind shear.

The one after that could be our final long-tracked major.

[cycloneye]

This is the one GFS has as a big one.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend or
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Danm, for Thanksgiving, I could be following EPAC hurricanes instead of eating turkey and watching football.

[cycloneye]

From the TWD of EPAC at 16:05 UTC:

THE GFS IS
AN OUTLIER SHOWING VERY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 90W AND 100W MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend or
early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
conducive for development by early next week while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

From the TWD of EPAC at 16:05 UTC:

THE GFS IS
AN OUTLIER SHOWING VERY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 90W AND 100W MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

Well,the ECMWF has also a biggie for Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if the GFS is still having issues but it now has twin storms 145 hours out.

[Yellow Evan]

Sometimes it does that in cases where a powerful/large hurricane is forecast to form.

[Extratropical94]

1. An area of low pressure moving westward across Nicaragua is
forecast to move offshore over the far eastern north Pacific Ocean
on Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone could form south
or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%.This will be the big closer of the season.

An area of low pressure moving westward across Nicaragua is forecast
to move offshore over the far eastern north Pacific Ocean later
today. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form south or
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS are well aligned at the current moment.

[Extratropical94]

1. An area of low pressure located near the west coast of Nicaragua is
about to emerge into the far eastern north Pacific Ocean and will
move westward to west-southwestward through the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
development by early next week, and a tropical cyclone is likely to
form south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next
week while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Euro and GFS are well aligned at the current moment.

They continue that way at 12z runs.