Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: it's not really the cold that was getting to me, I was here last year when it was 13 degrees and was fine, It was getting wet, There wasn't a way for me to protect my legs and feet. being soaked in 40 degrees weather is worse than being dry when 10 degrees imo.

Yeah. I agree with that. I went to school in Lubbock. It got down to 9 degrees and that was cold, but it was a dry cold. It is the upper 30s to 40s with rain and wind that always gets me to the core, every time. Happens in Houston in a typical Winter. So much worse than dry cold IMO.

[Brent]

:uarrow: it's not really the cold that was getting to me, I was here last year when it was 13 degrees and was fine, It was getting wet, There wasn't a way for me to protect my legs and feet. being soaked in 40 degrees weather is worse than being dry when 10 degrees imo.

Yeah. I agree with that. I went to school in Lubbock. It got down to 9 degrees and that was cold, but it was a dry cold. It is the upper 30s to 40s with rain and wind that always gets me to the core, every time. Happens in Houston in a typical Winter. So much worse than dry cold IMO.

Yeah dry cold doesn't bother me as long as it's not windy... I've actually gone out in shorts before and it's not that bad...

the cold rains on the other hand will never be pleasant.

[Brent]

CMC is quite similar to the GFS with the bulk of the frozen precip west of I-35, but it does have some in DFW and Austin, very close call for a bigger event

[SouthernMet]

Already 28 degrees at Alliance

[gpsnowman]

Car thermometer read 33 on the way into work this morning. Before leaving I just stood on my driveway to feel the cold air. Felt refreshing and it woke me up a bit. Nothing like being able to watch the sunrise on a crisp fall morning. Enjoy today everyone.

[Ntxw]

DFW recorded its first official freeze today.

0z Euro has mid and upper 30s with heavy rain next weekend.

[hriverajr]

6z GFS warmer with some fairly heavy rain next weekend. In fact hints at lower coastal low formation. Frozen Precip confined to NW Texas

[Portastorm]

6z GFS warmer with some fairly heavy rain next weekend. In fact hints at lower coastal low formation. Frozen Precip confined to NW Texas

Yeah at this point I think we can all agree that there will be plenty of QPF around late next week. Could even see some flooding issues.

[srainhoutx]

6z GFS warmer with some fairly heavy rain next weekend. In fact hints at lower coastal low formation. Frozen Precip confined to NW Texas

Yeah at this point I think we can all agree that there will be plenty of QPF around late next week. Could even see some flooding issues.

That would be the most plausible solution with the TC Sandra remnants spreading over a very shallow cold air regime at the surface. As TC Sandra remnants bring its abundant tropical moisture out of Mexico into Texas, carefully watch for a Coastal trough/low to organize across S Texas and progress NE allowing elevated thunderstorm chances to increase Friday through next weekend.

[TheAustinMan]

12z GFS run today has now covered the Thanksgiving weekend event, and now indicates only sleet in the Texas Panhandle from Friday-Sunday as the rest of the state remains well above freezing.

[lukem]

What kind of rain totals are we looking at through the weekend? Looks like a good setup for flooding.

[Rgv20]

12zCMC stays consistent with its solution thru next weekend....lets see what the ECMWF shows next.

[TexasF6]

If the source region is Siberian in nature, and the snowpack is laid down, as it is, the air could very well be much colder than what the models are showing in these latest runs. -36F crossing the Bering Straits combining with Canadian air coming down the lee side of the Rockies makes for interesting wx into Texas. It "Bears Watching" at this point, IMHO. Bastardi said the models were contradicting themselves, and to use your noggin to see what is wrong with them? Thoughts?

[TheProfessor]

I don't like the 12z GFS as it has Precip lasting longer, even though it's rain, we've seen the models handle shallow cold air very poorly.

Edit: and If the 12z CMC is misjudging the cold I could be stuck in Texas for a long while, the Tuesday event is borderline, but if there is ice on the ground from then it would likely be colder for Tuesday, then it has the storm hitting Ohio afterwards.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I don't like the 12z GFS as it has Precip lasting longer, even though it's rain, we've seen the models handle shallow cold air very poorly.

Edit: and If the 12z CMC is misjudging the cold I could be stuck in Texas for a long while, the Tuesday event is borderline, but if there is ice on the ground from then it would likely be colder for Tuesday, then it has the storm hitting Ohio afterwards.

Don't come home for Thanksgiving, then. It's as simple as that..

[TheProfessor]

I don't like the 12z GFS as it has Precip lasting longer, even though it's rain, we've seen the models handle shallow cold air very poorly.

Edit: and If the 12z CMC is misjudging the cold I could be stuck in Texas for a long while, the Tuesday event is borderline, but if there is ice on the ground from then it would likely be colder for Tuesday, then it has the storm hitting Ohio afterwards.

Don't come home for Thanksgiving, then. It's as simple as that..

Idk if you are joking, but I will say seeing my Grandmother (who I only see twice a year) is worth getting stuck.

[hriverajr]

The 12z looks a little warm to me

Oh yeah, quit picking on the young man.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12z looks a little warm to me

Oh yeah, quit picking on the young man.

I agree that recent runs look too warm. Maybe the heavy rain brings down too much warm air, but temps near 40 seem awful warm. I have not been able to study the models this weekend so not sure how far north they are holding the deeper cold.

[1900hurricane]

Recent model runs look ok to me. The trends with the upper level troughing have been with it hanging up considerably more, which would give much less push to the cold airmass. Couple that with warm tropical air with sources from both the Atlantic and the Pacific overrunning the colder airmass, the airmass will likely modify considerably.

[Ntxw]

What kind of rain totals are we looking at through the weekend? Looks like a good setup for flooding.

Widespread 2-4", some areas receiving 4-6"



For November it's quite anomalous relative to average vs per say October. If these totals verified areas such as DFW would threaten top 10 wettest Novembers and break the yearly record by several inches.