Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

lol the GFS has really backed off the cold... coldest day is now a high of 47...

[Ntxw]

A chase trip to the panhandle?

[Brent]

:uarrow: A chase trip to the panhandle?

http://i66.tinypic.com/28j9yf7.png

Don't even go there... I do have some time off work next weekend.

[Ntxw]

Don't even go there... I do have some time off work next weekend.

That area of yellow along the TX/NM border in the western panhandle the Euro has 8-10"+

And I hear gas out there is only 1.50 or so

[TheProfessor]

Had a high of 34 today and temperatures have fallen down to 25 degrees.

[Brent]

this should top 1991 for wettest year at DFW:



The GFS keeps trending warmer... low 50s on Saturday in DFW, near 60(!) Sunday morning before the last of the rain clears(it has heavy rain on Sunday again), and then highs in the mid 50s Monday.

[SouthernMet]

This will play a huge role in who sees Ice Vs Rain... We saw this some last winter.

THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COLD AIR TENDS TO SURGE SOUTH ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BECAUSE THE ROCKIES
SERVE AS A BARRICADE TO THE COLD AIR ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD
SOUTHWEST. THE COLD AIR THAT WOULD SPREAD SOUTHWEST IS FORCED
SOUTH INSTEAD... CAUSING THE COLD AIR TO ACCELERATE SOUTH IN A
PROCESS THAT IS REFERRED TO AS "COLD AIR DAMMING". THIS PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE COLDEST AIR TO SURGE SOUTH FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LARGELY REMAINING WEST
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALSO DEFORM THE INITIALLY WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BY SATURDAY.

[Ntxw]

Parade of storms continues on basically all guidance. Lots of split flow. Keep threading the needle and eventually you'll get it

May be enough of a slow soaker, however flood watches may be needed later this week

[Ntxw]

El Nino also updated again this week and it strengthened to 3.1C. A value nearly incomprehensible in the ENSO world. Even though there was a flash drought in there, no doubt it has influenced our rainfall patterns when you take in the whole picture especially with more to come this week that will likely push many into the greatest rainfall year for many if not most.



Mike Ventrice did a blog on it and stated this, in terms of statistical standpoint

"The chances of this El Nino event to repeat are along the lines of 1:10,000 years. Since El Nino only occurs on average once every 7 years, the chances of seeing another El Nino event as strong as the one underway is less than 0.01%."

http://www.wsi.com/blog/historic-warmth-across-north-america-possible-in-december



Surprisingly (with this year included) due all the droughts we've endured, 4/10 wettest years on record at DFW will have happened since 1990. 3/10 have occured since 2000. Top two spots being 1991 and 2015.

[CaptinCrunch]

Had a good freeze at the house Sunday morning with a temp of 29. This morning had a good frost on everything with a low of 34 when I left the house at 7am. Not liking the rain for Thanksgiving since I was planning on smoking a brisket, but am liking the 40's for high this weekend.

[gboudx]

Had a good freeze at the house Sunday morning with a temp of 29. This morning had a good frost on everything with a low of 34 when I left the house at 7am. Not liking the rain for Thanksgiving since I was planning on smoking a brisket, but am liking the 40's for high this weekend.

I smoked one yesterday and will fry a turkey on Thursday. Not a bad eating week.

[DougNTexas]

28 at my house this morning

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW AFD from this morning

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK. THEREAFTER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY
AND FRIDAY IN WHICH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS FOR PARTS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM TIME PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP TO
INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PLUME OF EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGIN. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE SATURATION OF
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE COARSER
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY LIFT OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS LIFT/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT RAIN AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY
DUE TO A COUPLE OF FEATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM
A SEPARATE SPEED MAXIMA THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE FAIR AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
/INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COUPLED JET/ SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE
A STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE A
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY INTO
TEXAS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH MOISTENING
FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
COULDBE HEAVY.

A QUICK EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALED THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB TOWARDS +2SD ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH THE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL LIKELY DOMINATE AND SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INITIALLY LIMITED TO
NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THE
COLD FRONT AND THUS THE AXIS OF BEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
CONVERGENCE...WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER AND THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FACILITATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS 850-700 MB FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH. CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A BULK OF THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NECESSARY FOR ANY TYPE OF WINTRY WEATHER
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALL LIQUID FOR NOW AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S AND 40S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH FAIRLY STARK
DIFFERENCES. AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS IS VERY QUICK TO MODIFY
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODEL/S DEPICTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THAT WOULD FEATURE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET THAT HELPS TO INDUCE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND RESULT IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS. THE
MODEL HINTS THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETREATING 925-850MB
FRONT WILL OCCUR THE RED RIVER...RESULTING IN THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE EXTENDED.

THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HOWEVER...KEEP THE DEEPER COLDER
AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BIG COUNTRY. THIS WOULD
PLACE THE 925-850MB FRONT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND WOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.
RIGHT NOW...THIS FORECASTS LEANS MORE ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE COLDER/DENSER AIR IN PLACE AND THUS THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THINKING THAT
MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ERODING THE DENSE COLD AIR. AS
ALWAYS...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE AS MORE
INFORMATION BECOMES READILY AVAILABLE.

Very informed write up and something worth watching.

[weatherdude1108]

Frost on the trash cans, roofs, and exposed grassy areas this morning at my house, although thermometer never technically registered below 36 degrees, including car thermometer on my drive into work.

Lots of normal low spot/valley freezing temps dropping to their corresponding microclimate dewpoint depressions, I am assuming.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am on-board with the FWD thinking about this weekend. The GFS is showing what looks to be far too much warming at the surface. 60s this weekend for E TX seems pretty outlandish. I expect it to switch to an offshore surface low and much cooler temps. If the low does end up off shore then everything would shift SE and bring at least NW DFW into the icing threat area. Hopefully the models start to figure this out by Wednesday so we will have decent forecasts for the big travel weekend.

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning:

XUS64 KHGX 231116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
516 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY GROUND FOG BEING
REPORTED BY AIRPORT PERSONNEL NEAR KIAH. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF DEVELOPING. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST POSSIBILITY FROM KIAH TO THE COAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE ARKANSAS AND
THIS FEATURE WAS RIDGING INTO SE TX. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL NEAR FREEZING. COLDEST
TEMPS AS OF 3 AM INCLUDE 30 AT CHAPPELL HILL...31 AT INDUSTRY...
NEW WAVERLY AND OAKHURST AND 32 DEGREES AT CROCKETT...CLEVELAND AND
MADISONVILLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUN AND
SHOULD REACH MAX VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR DEEPENS AND SOME PACIFIC MSTR STREAMS
OVER THE TOP. MSTR LEVELS CONT TO CREEP UP ON TUESDAY BUT A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 800 MB AND VERY DRY AIR AIR AT 850 MB
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE CAP REMAINS STRONG
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLUMN BENEATH THE CAP BECOMES SATURATED SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. TEMP/MSTR
PROFILE LOOKS SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY WITH MSTR BENEATH A STOUT CAP
AND A DRY LAYER AT 700 MB. COULD STILL PROBABLY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS BENEATH THE CAP AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY. MSTR LEVELS DEEPEN FURTHER WED NITE AND THURSDAY. LESS
CAPPING IS NOTED ON THANKSGIVING BUT MSTR PROFILES SHOW A DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700 MB. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW ON THURSDAY
SO DESPITE THE DRY LAYER...FEEL CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80-1.90 INCHES ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CAPPING
NOTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF TRIES TO IMPINGE ON SE TX
BUT FEEL THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHRA/TSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX FRI NITE. THE ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT AND MOVES IT BACK TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THINGS WARM AND HUMID. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE VALUES SO CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY THE CANADIAN. IF THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...SW WINDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO PREVAIL. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNTIL THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE ZONAL NEXT MONDAY. 43

MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SE TEXAS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CAUTION LEVELS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY THEN DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM OF
THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL TREND IS FOR THE WIND
SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SE TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT ON SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY OFF GALVESTON AND HIGH ISLAND DURING THAT AFTERNOON.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 45 70 59 74 / 0 0 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 45 70 60 75 / 0 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 57 72 67 74 / 0 0 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

[TeamPlayersBlue]

35F here officially at TPB weather center.

[Portastorm]

Had a good freeze at the house Sunday morning with a temp of 29. This morning had a good frost on everything with a low of 34 when I left the house at 7am. Not liking the rain for Thanksgiving since I was planning on smoking a brisket, but am liking the 40's for high this weekend.

I smoked one yesterday and will fry a turkey on Thursday. Not a bad eating week.

I'm with you guys ... bought a brand new smoker/grill last week ... did the mods on it yesterday ... going to do my curing smoke today in prep for Thursday when I'll be smoking a brisket. The rain could be challenging.

Hit a low of 30 degrees this morning at the Portastorm Weather Center.

[TheProfessor]

Got down to 21 this morning, temps are sitting at 35 now with some cloud cover.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So how did the models do vs. reality over the last couple of mornings? It seems the general forecast for DFW on Sunday morning was to bottom out around 32, but in Richardson I saw 28.