EPAC: SANDRA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Well since it's likely to weaken considerably before landfall, we can now talk about ACE.

Currently, how much more do we need?

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking the data-T numbers are closer to accurate, it looks like at least a T5.5, if not close to T6.0 from my naked eye. I think Cat 4 is definitely not out of the question.

As for a watch for Mexico, agreed in holding off on one for now. We don't know what will be left of Sandra by then given that it should decapitate by tomorrow or Friday at the latest.

[galaxy401]

El Nino producing one last surprise for this quite entertaining season.

[EquusStorm]

295.4 appears to be the ACE to beat (1992) and we are in the low 270s right how. So we would need a bit over 20 more to beat 1992. At 271.7 according to Wiki as of this afternoon so looks like we would need 24 more to match.

[Kingarabian]

295.4 appears to be the ACE to beat (1992) and we are in the low 270s right how. So we would need a bit over 20 more to beat 1992. At 271.7 according to Wiki as of this afternoon so looks like we would need 24 more to match.

Don't know if those numbers are up to date. I thought we were a clear cut down 20?

[Kingarabian]

-80C hot towers on AVN popping up and appearing to circle the eye. If there are no interruptions then we could be looking at a cat.4 before the next advisory.

[EquusStorm]

I'm not sure, just going by what the Wikipedia weather gang has been crunching. Plus TCRs might bump it up by a couple. At this rate, I am half expecting Terry or Vivian to push us over the record threshold.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye seems to be warming and the CDO should cool tonight due to increased poleward outflow and D-Max. Cat 4 still looks likely

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2015 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:01:31 N Lon : 109:55:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.2mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.1

[Cyclenall]

Up to cat 3.

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015

Sandra's intensification has continued at a rapid pace. The
hurricane now has a clearer eye in infrared satellite imagery that
is completely surrounded by a white ring on the Dvorak enhancement
curve. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T5.5/102 kt and
T5.0/90 kt, respectively, although data-T numbers were up to 6.0.
The UW-CIMSS ADT scheme has been flopping between different scene
types, but when it has used an eye pattern it has yielded estimates
in the 5.5-6.0 range. Based on these numbers, the initial intensity
is raised to 100 kt, making Sandra a category 3 hurricane. There
have now been 9 major hurricanes over the eastern North Pacific
Ocean during the 2015 season, which is a record for that basin.

Thank you National Hurricane Center. The legendary 2015 Epac season pushes forward and now the current number of majors matches my seasonal prediction which was 23/13/9 (ACE: 212).

El Nino producing one last surprise for this quite entertaining season.

I think a category 4 hurricane in December is not out of the question, just a hunch and if something strong forms in that month I won't be shocked but anything higher than 115 knots would.

At this rate, I am half expecting Terry or Vivian to push us over the record threshold.

I want this Super El Nino to get us to Vivi because it would be the first time a main character name from Final Fantasy 9 would be used in the tropics, COME ON LETS DO IT.



Uh-oh .

[Yellow Evan]

Vivan was used in 1985 IIRC.

[Kingarabian]

Wonder what happened to it. Need some new microwave.

[Kingarabian]

Possible ERC:

[cycloneye]

Or the shear may be beginning?

[Kingarabian]

Or the shear may be beginning?

Not seeing any major difference in its structure that screams shear.

It has maintained a lopsided ragged look since genesis.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it has recovered. 80C cloud tops almost fully circling the eye.

SAB up to 6.0

[cycloneye]

105kts at 00z Best Track.

As of 00:00 UTC Nov 26, 2015:


Location: 13.3°N 110.2°W
Maximum Winds: 105 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[CrazyC83]

A large area of white around the eye with slight light gray is T6.0, correct? Although another Dvorak angle is showing the eye completely surrounding by light gray with some medium gray, which I believe is T6.5. All things considered, I would go with 115 kt personally.

[tolakram]

Just getting in range of this loop.

vis
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-110&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=8

ir
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-110&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=8

[Kingarabian]

Cloud tops are there to support Cat.4 once the eye clears again.