2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern north
Pacific Ocean and portions of Central America are associated with a
low pressure area. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development of this system in a few days, and a
tropical cyclone is likely to form south of the southern coast of
Mexico by the middle of next week while the low moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Ntxw]

Looks like EPAC going out with a bang with Sandra to be

[WeatherGuesser]

I just want one last one to stay offshore where it won't bother anybody while it cranks out that last 20 or so units.

[Ntxw]

I just want one last one to stay offshore where it won't bother anybody while it cranks out that last 20 or so units.

20 units will be tough. It would have to move very slowly and take the longest NW path before recurving. Patricia managed about 17-18 units with about as max winds as you can get for ACE. Of course duration counts too.

[Kingarabian]

I just want one last one to stay offshore where it won't bother anybody while it cranks out that last 20 or so units.

20 units will be tough. It would have to move very slowly and take the longest NW path before recurving. Patricia managed about 17-18 units with about as max winds as you can get for ACE. Of course duration counts too.

Per the latest GFS, it looks like it manages to remain a robust hurricane for 5 days.

[Ntxw]

I just want one last one to stay offshore where it won't bother anybody while it cranks out that last 20 or so units.

20 units will be tough. It would have to move very slowly and take the longest NW path before recurving. Patricia managed about 17-18 units with about as max winds as you can get for ACE. Of course duration counts too.

Per the latest GFS, it looks like it manages to remain a robust hurricane for 5 days.

It would come close. A lot of other records too, right now tied with 1992 for most majors. Sandra would tie with most hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area centered a couple hundred miles south of the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern north Pacific Ocean
and portions of Central America. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for development of this system early
next week, and a tropical cyclone will likely form south of the
southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week while the low
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Ntxw]

Could there be recon coming into this potential system? May see some low pressures with this one. I know continuous recon in the EPAC is unheard of but it would be really valuable.

[cycloneye]

Could there be recon coming into this potential system? May see some low pressures with this one. I know continuous recon in the EPAC is unheard of but it would be really valuable.

Is a real possibility since if it does what the models have,it threats Mexico.

[cycloneye]

10 AM PST.

A broad area of low pressure located south of the coast of Guatemala
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
development of this system early next week, and a tropical cyclone
will likely form south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle
of next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 91E is up

[Ntxw]

289 units per Ryan Maue site, should tie or pass 1992's later today or tomorrow. However wikipedia is running about 5-10 units less. Lets wait and see what the NHC says later. Of course nothing is final until after season analysis.

[Yellow Evan]

289 units per Ryan Maue site, should tie or pass 1992's later today or tomorrow. However wikipedia is running about 5-10 units less. Lets wait and see what the NHC says later. Of course nothing is final until after season analysis.

Whatever happens, it's likely to be disputed. The reason is because of Kilo; the CPHC pulled the plug on it before it left their AOR, so the JTWC issued a few advisories.

Maue has it at 285 FTR.

Also,1992's ACE doesn't include Ward, which was a short TS near the dateline that the JTWC warned on for w/e reason, but not the CPHC.

[Ntxw]

It got adjusted from this morning, but yeah it will be disputed. Regardless though, one more hurricane would likely help. But in truth the two seasons are essentially neck and neck in many metrics..

[hurricaneCW]

So much for 2015 not beating the #1 season.

[Ntxw]

Philip Klotzbach tweeted ACE is 289, number to beat is 291.

[cycloneye]

It has a chance to beat it if post analysis goes up.

[WeatherGuesser]

Next?



Need one more boomer that stays offshore but racks up enough units to remove all dispute.

[NotoSans]

I just checked the JTWC best track for Ward and the first TS fix was at 180.0E, so it didn't count towards the CPAC ACE.

[dexterlabio]

Do you think we will get a December CANE? With the way things were going in the EPAC, I wouldn't be surprised.