ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

30 day SOI at -2.99, November will close with a monthly SOI of between -3 and -4.5. Just goes to show how much interference the MJO has created in the past few weeks.

[Ntxw]

30 day SOI at -2.99, November will close with a monthly SOI of between -3 and -4.5. Just goes to show how much interference the MJO has created in the past few weeks.

It's been interfering quite a bit. But SOI is tanking now and December's will be quite low again. We are seeing peak of the Nino right now, tomorrow's update won't move too much. The question now is, when will the harder drops occur? CFSv2 thinks we will hold on to 2.0C+ through January/early Feb like in 1997. I think overall this El Nino the weeklies have been hugging near 1997 the entire way so far, I would believe that forecast from the CFSv2 at Nino 3.4. Plus the logic of how slow things evolve in ENSO just makes sense. To drop from 3C down to 2C (if it's a steady drop) would take a month at the earliest if we're talking nose dive. There are no anomalous easterlies in the forecast so a hold steady then slow decline for the next 2 month's I'd bet.

[cycloneye]

Down to +3.0C on CPC update of 11/30/15.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Now wouldn't this be crazy and throw a wrench in it all.



WWB in February to kick off WWB season 2016? I don't believe anything that far out but intriguing no less

[Darvince]

That seems worrying to me, I'm hoping we haven't entered a quasi-permanent niño state now...

[Ntxw]

That seems worrying to me, I'm hoping we haven't entered a quasi-permanent niño state now...

There is a cold pool developing though deep below the central Pacific. It's too early to speculate, in about two months we'll have a heading of which way it may go.

[Hurricaneman]

That seems worrying to me, I'm hoping we haven't entered a quasi-permanent niño state now...

There is a cold pool developing though deep below the central Pacific. It's too early to speculate, in about two months we'll have a heading of which way it may go.

Its forming where the warm anomalies were forming previously which means I predict a slow fall until mid January with a steep fall of El Nino sometime in February

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TimeZone]

Yea seeing that cold pool developing there makes me wonder if El Nino has peaked.

[dexterlabio]

Yea seeing that cold pool developing there makes me wonder if El Nino has peaked.

El Nino's usually peak during winter so yeah maybe we're getting really close, if not already there...




A question though.. is the record rainfall happening in India expected during an El Nino? I thought India and the Arabia experience drought and record high temps similar to SE Asia but perhaps one year differs to another. Maybe MJO-related?

[Ntxw]

Yea seeing that cold pool developing there makes me wonder if El Nino has peaked.

El Nino's usually peak during winter so yeah maybe we're getting really close, if not already there...




A question though.. is the record rainfall happening in India expected during an El Nino? I thought India and the Arabia experience drought and record high temps similar to SE Asia but perhaps one year differs to another. Maybe MJO-related?

I'm just speculating here, because I don't follow the IO much, but it has been well above normal for over a decade without much cooling regardless of the ENSO state. I suspect this effects the monsoons (and cyclone development/landfalls).

[Darvince]

As far as I can find, India is supposed to experience warm or dry weather during niños, but the cyclone seasons of the Indian Ocean are largely unaffected by the ENSO state so, maybe? If I'd have to make a guess though, I'd say that the record moisture in India is from AGW rather than the ENSO state (same with how intense this niño happens to be).

[Alyono]

Yea seeing that cold pool developing there makes me wonder if El Nino has peaked.

El Nino's usually peak during winter so yeah maybe we're getting really close, if not already there...




A question though.. is the record rainfall happening in India expected during an El Nino? I thought India and the Arabia experience drought and record high temps similar to SE Asia but perhaps one year differs to another. Maybe MJO-related?

I'm just speculating here, because I don't follow the IO much, but it has been well above normal for over a decade without much cooling regardless of the ENSO state. I suspect this effects the monsoons (and cyclone development/landfalls).

a tropical disturbance is currently affecting India

[Alyono]

As far as I can find, India is supposed to experience warm or dry weather during niños, but the cyclone seasons of the Indian Ocean are largely unaffected by the ENSO state so, maybe? If I'd have to make a guess though, I'd say that the record moisture in India is from AGW rather than the ENSO state (same with how intense this niño happens to be).

Now how could AGW, if it is even a driving force in the environment (yes, there is real debate, especially among meteorologists), affect the particular tropical disturbance affecting India?

[Darvince]

i thought it was something for this whole year not just right now whoops i'm stupid this is why i have the disclaimer automatically added to my posts

[cycloneye]

ONI is up +2.0C but is a low outlier.

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · 34m34 minutes ago
ERSSTv4 ONI (1990-Present). Latest value exceeded 2C & is 3rd highest for SON, however this dataset is a low outlier

[wxman57]

Luis,

What's the URL for that site? I use this one but values are not as precise:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[cycloneye]

Luis,

What's the URL for that site? I use this one but values are not as precise:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Eric Webb didn't add a link.

[Dean_175]

I couldn't find the current ERSSTv4 values for November posted yet on the regular CPC page -I could only find the ERSSTv4 values relative to 1971-2000 climatology. But the old climatology values indicate that it went up around 0.3C in November and October's value was changed upwards by 0.15C. ERSST uses more than just a "smoothing out" of observational data- but applies filters and statistical methods to the raw values-both spatially and temporally-so that values for past months will continue to change until the event is over. While it is a "low" dataset in general, it may be even more conservative before an El Nino event has peaked- at least until the values are adjusted upwards retroactively.

But ONI being 2.0C means we have officially exceeded 1972 (which reached a peak ONI of just under 2.0C). This puts the event at least in the strongest 3 on record. We will probably see 3 consecutive trimonthlies over 2.0C if this holds.

As for the other indices:
OISSTv2 for the month reached a record 2.96C -- not surprising given the 3.0+ values in the weeklies.

The ESOI came in at -2.1. I was expecting it to be less negative as the SOI was "weaker" due to MJO interference. Its more strongly correlated to nino3.4 than is the SOI, but I thought that it would have been at least somewhat affected with the regular SOI being barely negative.

[Dean_175]

Luis,

What's the URL for that site? I use this one but values are not as precise:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

The ONI was just posted on the CPC site. Here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

November's monthly came in at 2.35C , while October's was adjusted upwards to 2.04C (it was previously 1.86C).

[Ntxw]

So we finally get the coveted 2C in ONI to solidify this Nino in Gold with 72,82,97. There is no strong signs yet at the surface of much backing off. I think a 2.2 or 2.3 is definitely not out of reach. Also we could extend this another trimonthly or two. In terms of Absolute temperatures (not anomalies) the central Pacific is as warm as we have known it to be. No matter how you slice it, once in a generation ENSO event.

I'm expecting the next release of ONI to adjust November up just like September and October was revised up.