2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Who would have thought this mega nino of 2015 would join 1981 and 2011?

1981 ended with 3 more majors while 2011 ended with many weak systems.

2015?

[euro6208]

NAVGEM, CMC hinting on In-fa with the latter developing it into a typhoon.

EURO showing some hints as well...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I remember 2011 had ended Washi...

[euro6208]

Well EURO has calmed a but along with the quiet GFS on a slow WPAC November.

NAVGEM and CMC still hinting on development but less aggressive than earlier forecast.

[Cyclenall]

*Image Cut*

Who would have thought this mega nino of 2015 would join 1981 and 2011?

1981 ended with 3 more majors while 2011 ended with many weak systems.

2015?

This Wpac season from the start of September onwards has been very underwhelming and weak sauce. Overall the season is already pretty intense and I was surprised to count 15 100+ knot typhoons and 5 category 5 storms. The TC count is very impressive as well. With that said, 1997 which I'm comparing "only" had 33 TCs in total which is lower than I thought I remembered so this season looks to beat that unless its dead til New Year's. Looking at the period noted above in 1997, its the total opposite for intense activity where 6 CAT5 typhoons from Sept.1 to Dec 31 occurred and 2015 is currently sitting at zilch. A bit behind for majors. Its pretty clear things will pick up in December and I'm curious to see how that delay with a similar El Nino will play out this time; if we get an Ivan, Joan, and Keith situation again with a Paka on the rear then this year will be very similar to 1997 but time is running out.

[1900hurricane]

Well, here we are now entering the second half of November, and the basin is once again showing some life. The upward pulse of Madden-Julian never did make it out of the Indian Ocean, but it has deamplified considerably, likely only being held up by a false signal from the Bay of Bengal depression, meaning El Nino is once again the main driver over the Western Pacific, a much more favorable pattern than what has been observed recently, particularly nearer the dateline. Time for the season is running out, but it isn't dead yet. Late season typhoons are much more boom-or-bust than during the season's heart, so it could be interesting to see how the eleventh hour of this typhoon season unfolds.

[dexterlabio]

Last year WPAC managed to have a Category 5 super typhoon in December. For some reason I don't see why that wouldn't happen this year.

[euro6208]

27th TC has developed THREAD

[euro6208]

Models keeping the WPAC quiet...

[euro6208]

Possible December activity...

[euro6208]

GFS very long range 12Z and 18Z showing Melor struggling as it moves westward across Micronesia but intensifies it to at least a strong TS as it moves over the Philippines.

Something to watch...

[euro6208]

00Z even more robust but more east. Brings Melor down to 958 mb as it starts to recurve.

[euro6208]

JMA for some runs has something developing near the dateline but quickly dissipates it.

NAVGEM for multiple runs shows something starting to develop near the dateline with little to no strengthening. Latest run has multiple good looking systems west and east of the Marianas.

CMC the same with NAVGEM...

[dexterlabio]

GFS now only showing a couple of weak lows in the long range unlike the past few runs showing a distinct TC. But still it's hinting that we might be onto something. ECMWF actually also shows something, albeit just a weak low system forming east of Palau in ten days.

[euro6208]

Recap of the models.

JMA does nothing.

NAVGEM has a TS southeast of Guam next week.

CMC by the same time has a full blown Typhoon Melor passing south of Guam.

EURO in contrast only has a strong disturbance passing over the area and struggles to develop in the P.I sea.

GFS previously had a monster Melor recurving and since then been back and forth showing a much weaker system and now the latest shows nothing.

[euro6208]

WPAC ACE through 11/30 is 3rd place all time behind the record breaking worldwide 1992 and 1997 season.

[euro6208]

Tropical cyclone development is possible across the eastern portion of the northwest Pacific Ocean during Week-1 with any motion after potential development most likely west-northwest toward Guam.

High risk of development.

[1900hurricane]

The next disturbance to watch is way down there right now. It's straddling the equator at the current moment.

[dexterlabio]

The next disturbance to watch is way down there right now. It's straddling the equator at the current moment.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVMZhyJVEAAExp1.jpg

Is this the same system the GFS has been showing for the past few days? At first I was thinking this could be another potent cyclone, but the recent model runs do not give it a bright future. What's your take on this? Maybe the dry northeast monsoon can keep this one in check.

[euro6208]

NWS

IN THE LONG RANGE...CONDITIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IN PLACE...BUT NONE
OF THE MODELS HAS ANY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THAT REGARD WITH ONLY
SPORADIC INDICATIONS THAT VARY GREATLY FROM RUN TO RUN. IN
ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AT A MINIMUM IN THE
WESTPAC BASIN.

Still the best two models don't see any development yet.