Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Portastorm]

GFS is pretty quiet through 300 hours(maybe a couple light rain events and seasonal temps) and then continues to show hints of at least a bigger rain event followed by much colder air towards mid month but it is a long way out...

On the positive side... despite all this talk of a blowtorch in the rest of the country, the warmest the GFS gets for highs at DFW is only a couple days in the mid 60s. Hardly unusual for December...

Happy winter everyone! Hopefully there is lots of snow for everyone.

FWIW, Larry Cosgrove believes December will be mild to "torchy" for most of the CONUS. In fact a number of folks who do longer range forecasting I read seem to be saying that. LC, however, believes the bottom drops out by the second week of January and then winter really hits hard.

[wxman57]

FWIW, Larry Cosgrove believes December will be mild to "torchy" for most of the CONUS. In fact a number of folks who do longer range forecasting I read seem to be saying that. LC, however, believes the bottom drops out by the second week of January and then winter really hits hard.

I really like Larry's December outlook.

Seriously, the current pattern is not one that would bring extreme cold south to Texas. It's too zonal with cut-off lows. I don't even see a freeze for Houston over the next 2 weeks. That's not to say there can't be ice issues in north Texas (Panhandle to Red River) in this pattern, possibly some sleet/freezing rain down to the D-FW area. I would think that the pattern will eventually change to a colder one, perhaps by the 4th week of December or early January.

[Ralph's Weather]

Finally on to winter. The forecast for me this week is basically lows 35-40, highs 55-60 and variable cloudiness with some showers later in the week.
I agree with the consensus that December looks near average temperature wise around here with highs near or below average and above average to average lows with heavy cloud cover and some rain and borderline winter events. Things are closely following what was forecasted by most for this winter. Arctic cold should start to factor in sometime between Christmas and mid-January and last through early March.

[Ntxw]

GFS is pretty quiet through 300 hours(maybe a couple light rain events and seasonal temps) and then continues to show hints of at least a bigger rain event followed by much colder air towards mid month but it is a long way out...

On the positive side... despite all this talk of a blowtorch in the rest of the country, the warmest the GFS gets for highs at DFW is only a couple days in the mid 60s. Hardly unusual for December...

Happy winter everyone! Hopefully there is lots of snow for everyone.

FWIW, Larry Cosgrove believes December will be mild to "torchy" for most of the CONUS. In fact a number of folks who do longer range forecasting I read seem to be saying that. LC, however, believes the bottom drops out by the second week of January and then winter really hits hard.

That's because it's really easy to say so. All strong El Nino's look the same The core of the torch will be far to our north and east, it will be closer to seasonal temps down here (may side more on the +anoms)

In truth though any cold air/sn/zr and your personal favorite frzdrzl will have to come from cold core ULL bringing down stuff aloft. Source region will be quite mild for some time.

One thing I think some of the models will lose on is cloud cover. STJ is raging still yet, and I see that the GFS has several clear days. It will be tough to do so

[dhweather]

Portastorm, As long as you get snow, I'm good with winter.

Let me be the first to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!!!

And to let everyone know that there is a....

CAT 5 SNOWCANE IN THE GULF!!!!

YEAH!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Happy December everyone!! Let the cold and fun begin!

[Ralph's Weather]

One thing I think some of the models will lose on is cloud cover. STJ is raging still yet, and I see that the GFS has several clear days. It will be tough to do so

Agreed there, not sure we see much sun and thus would not be surprised to see highs stay below average in the low to mid 50s and even 40s later in the month even without Arctic air. Freezing temps will be tough to come by though, maybe with a strong cold core bowling ball.

[Tireman4]

FWIW, Larry Cosgrove believes December will be mild to "torchy" for most of the CONUS. In fact a number of folks who do longer range forecasting I read seem to be saying that. LC, however, believes the bottom drops out by the second week of January and then winter really hits hard.

I really like Larry's December outlook.

Seriously, the current pattern is not one that would bring extreme cold south to Texas. It's too zonal with cut-off lows. I don't even see a freeze for Houston over the next 2 weeks. That's not to say there can't be ice issues in north Texas (Panhandle to Red River) in this pattern, possibly some sleet/freezing rain down to the D-FW area. I would think that the pattern will eventually change to a colder one, perhaps by the 4th week of December or early January.

Yea sir. I will take that. Cold runs. Frosty days.

[Ntxw]

A little thing going on in the far east. Maybe this will attack the strong stratosphere Polar Vortex and shake up the AO. At the very least it may disturb the EPO again.



There are subtle signs way out we may raise heights again below the Aleutians evident from the ensembles and the latest GFS run. What that would do is flush Alaska's low heights and send some colder air down into the west/plains again and take hits on the +EPO pushing it into a -EPO. Nothing in the 7 days though. Basically repeat of the same pattern we just went through in November.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One thing I think some of the models will lose on is cloud cover. STJ is raging still yet, and I see that the GFS has several clear days. It will be tough to do so

Agreed there, not sure we see much sun and thus would not be surprised to see highs stay below average in the low to mid 50s and even 40s later in the month even without Arctic air. Freezing temps will be tough to come by though, maybe with a strong cold core bowling ball.

Bingo. Especially on the cloud cover. The GFS or our analysis of the upper air in the Eastern pacific, or south of mexico must be pretty poor. The STJ is always very sneaky. Cant remember the alst time we saw the sun in SE Tx. Last week sometime maybe.

Also, still learning of course, but key to our weather is the massive upper level high around Hawaii. Watch where it 'meanders.' Thats what is controlling much of the big lows moving around. I think, and dont quote me on this, that as Nino begins to weaken, this high will begin to weaken as well, or shift. Dynamically what will change? Not entirely sure but it will calm down the blow torch for the lower 48.

[weatherdude1108]

I saw the sun briefly sneak out earlier today from the clouds when I stepped outside, for about a minute.
Then abruptly back to the clouds like it never happened. It gets kind of chilly out there without the sun!

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:
I saw the sun briefly sneak out earlier today from the clouds when I stepped outside, for about a minute.
Then abruptly back to the clouds like it never happened. It gets kind of chilly out there without the sun!

For Tyler, the NWS shows fair conditions currently but sitting here downtown I have yet to see any breaking of the clouds maybe it is going to start soon. The forecast calls for partly cloudy to sunny conditions for the rest of the week. I have my doubts, but maybe we will get lucky.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
I saw the sun briefly sneak out earlier today from the clouds when I stepped outside, for about a minute.
Then abruptly back to the clouds like it never happened. It gets kind of chilly out there without the sun!

For Tyler, the NWS shows fair conditions currently but sitting here downtown I have yet to see any breaking of the clouds maybe it is going to start soon. The forecast calls for partly cloudy to sunny conditions for the rest of the week. I have my doubts, but maybe we will get lucky.

It will clear I think eventually, maybe tomorrow and the day after frontal passage. But at times I think high clouds will be sneaky and shorten the sunlight hours. Temps from the models are 50s for highs and 30s for lows at DFW. For Houston it's low to mid 60s for highs and 40s for lows. No really warm weather nor much freezes. That's about average for December. No torch for Texas just miserable days for wxman57 waiting for summer dreaming of the winter of 1985-1986.

[Ralph's Weather]

Still no breaks in the clouds. At least we have touched 50 or at least the airport has. We are going to have plenty of days like today this winter where in other years we would approach 60-65 with some sun and this year we are 50-55 with clouds. In January and February a day like this will be 40-45. Lots of cold rain, it is going to be like living in Juneau.

[Ntxw]

Euro ENS seeing it too. This is not a true -EPO episode but the PNA goes negative (TPB's Hawaii ridge connection) flushing low heights in the GOA into the interior west and adjacent plains. That's another heavy precipitation set up for the southern plains with EPAC connection. And definitely colder than the front week.

[1900hurricane]

Just one run 240 hours out, but the latest 12Z ECMWF is again showing a severe weather look. The modeled setup with that trough and screaming low level jet is beautiful.

At the very least, assuming some troughing of substance develops out west, we should be due for some more rain.

[Ntxw]

The models are teasing us with a big storm signal mid month. Ensembles do support a powerful jet and system kicking out once the GOA low gets flushed into the west. They are probably rushing things a bit, but I suspect they are correct a big storm may come. Tranquil until the 15th or so

[weatherdude1108]

What kind of big storm?

[TarrantWx]

The models are teasing us with a big storm signal mid month. Ensembles do support a powerful jet and system kicking out once the GOA low gets flushed into the west. They are probably rushing things a bit, but I suspect they are correct a big storm may come. Tranquil until the 15th or so

I noticed yesterday that the 0z GFS had a sub-980mb low in Kansas. Pretty impressive. There would definitely be a strong potential for severe weather in the warm sector as 1900hurricane pointed out and blizzard conditions on the backside.

[1900hurricane]

Look at that Pacific jet in the extended range. It's absolutely dominant. Combined with high heights out east, this is the type of signal I typically look for in the spring when I'm trying to get a feel if I may have a chase coming up. It's a pretty strong storm signal when considering the range. Relatively small spread between the globals also indicates higher than average predictability.