Texas Winter 2015-2016

[texas1836]

I want 24".

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: I want 24".

Maybe we can get a Christmas landfalling E Pac storm to pump some moisture into some Arctic air. or a stalled bowling ball.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: Delkus must have seen those maps and ran with it. If Pete says it will snow, it will snow!!!!

is the exact maps Delkus posted on his wx forecast the other night.

[wxman57]

I predict that neither Houston nor the D-FW area will have a white Christmas this year. As for snow in Jan/Feb, well, I wouldn't predict no snow then. The pattern should change by the end of December to one that would favor Deep South winter weather.

[weatherdude1108]

I predict that neither Houston nor the D-FW area will have a white Christmas this year. As for snow in Jan/Feb, well, I wouldn't predict no snow then. The pattern should change by the end of December to one that would favor Deep South winter weather.

So, Austin should have a white Christmas then?

[Ralph's Weather]

I predict that neither Houston nor the D-FW area will have a white Christmas this year. As for snow in Jan/Feb, well, I wouldn't predict no snow then. The pattern should change by the end of December to one that would favor Deep South winter weather.

We can wish for a surprise. though yea, Jan/Feb should be good months for snow lovers across the state.

[Ntxw]

From Fort Worth NWS. Notice the rainfall at Gainesville - the most ever recorded in North Texas.

Yup, 2015 (summer drought and all) has definitely been one for the books...and then some.

Take a good, hard, long look and remember this year. It's one for the ages in weather lore. It might be the only time in most of our lives that we get to see something like this.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/ ... _full7.jpg

Only 1957 comes close to the scope of rains that have fallen over Texas this year. Though 1957 was lackluster in the fall unlike 2015. The El Nino as of today came in with it's first official trimonthly of 2C. The next will be higher. It's official by all measures you can now call it the Super El Nino of 2015. We will look back some years from now when it's high and dry and understand how when the skies opened up, it poured and poured. So that we will remember, the desertification of Texas can't happen now or anytime in the near feature. Because El Nino's happen and are cyclical. It is a part of our climate and the Pacific is the great modulator that swings the pendulum back and forth in the biggest weather machine that effects Texas. They won't stop happening 50 years from now or 500 years.

[weatherdude1108]

From Fort Worth NWS. Notice the rainfall at Gainesville - the most ever recorded in North Texas.

Yup, 2015 (summer drought and all) has definitely been one for the books...and then some.

Take a good, hard, long look and remember this year. It's one for the ages in weather lore. It might be the only time in most of our lives that we get to see something like this.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/ ... _full7.jpg

Only 1957 comes close to the scope of rains that have fallen over Texas this year. Though 1957 was lackluster in the fall unlike 2015. The El Nino as of today came in with it's first official trimonthly of 2C. The next will be higher. It's official by all measures you can now call it the Super El Nino of 2015. We will look back some years from now when it's high and dry and understand how when the skies opened up, it poured and poured. So that we will remember, the desertification of Texas can't happen now or anytime in the near feature. Because El Nino's happen and are cyclical. It is a part of our climate and the Pacific is the great modulator that swings the pendulum back and forth in the biggest weather machine that effects Texas. They won't stop happening 50 years from now or 500 years.

Well done sir! I wish there were a "like" button on this.

[TarrantWx]

Well at least some ensemble members are finally taking the AO negative

[Brent]

GFS continues to show a change to colder weather after next weekend/mid month(after a slight warmup a little above average late next week) and at least one run today had some snow in N TX out in that timeframe.

[somethingfunny]

Someone told me that WFAA's Pete Delkus said something about the possibility of a White Christmas?

Slow down, that's 3 weeks out.

A cool down starting after mid month culminating in a winter storm a week to 10 days after sets up perfectly for a chance though small of a white Christmas for some. Twice in four years is probably too good to be true though.

We've already had two! 2009 and 2012...2015 would be right in schedule lol

[KatDaddy]

Changes ahead:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2015

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE U.S. MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH DAY 6 DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT
MIGHT EVOLVE FROM ERN TX INTO THE SERN STATES DAYS 7-8 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BEYOND DAY 6.

[TheProfessor]

It's 31 degrees and cloudy just after noon here, doesn't feel too bad as long as I keep my hands warm.

Edit: It actually just dropped to 30, it's supposed to be 40 degrees at 1 PM (in 40 minutes) I don't think we will make it to that at that time unless WAA arrives

[WeatherNewbie]

I predict that neither Houston nor the D-FW area will have a white Christmas this year. As for snow in Jan/Feb, well, I wouldn't predict no snow then. The pattern should change by the end of December to one that would favor Deep South winter weather.

If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying you would not predict snow in DFW through February?

[Tireman4]

I predict that neither Houston nor the D-FW area will have a white Christmas this year. As for snow in Jan/Feb, well, I wouldn't predict no snow then. The pattern should change by the end of December to one that would favor Deep South winter weather.

If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying you would not predict snow in DFW through February?

I am not Wxman 57, but I think he was saying snow could be on the table for January and February.

[WeatherNewbie]

I predict that neither Houston nor the D-FW area will have a white Christmas this year. As for snow in Jan/Feb, well, I wouldn't predict no snow then. The pattern should change by the end of December to one that would favor Deep South winter weather.

If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying you would not predict snow in DFW through February?

I am not Wxman 57, but I think he was saying snow could be on the table for January and February.

For some reason, I did not see the "no" before the words "snow then" when I read it the first time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If you look at the Euro in the 10 day range, the High pressure that Ntx claims im responsible for ( )If you notice, it weakens juuuuuust a tad and IMMEDIATELY we can start to see Ntx's beloved -EPO start to rear its head. Just an observation i made with the latest Euro run.

[TarrantWx]

Even more ensemble members today are taking the AO negative, although there's still quite a spread. Also, the PNA and NAO are looking to fall to near neutral levels. Hopefully the last half of the month will get interesting. Teleconnections are starting to move in our favor a little bit.

[Ntxw]

If you look at the Euro in the 10 day range, the High pressure that Ntx claims im responsible for ( )If you notice, it weakens juuuuuust a tad and IMMEDIATELY we can start to see Ntx's beloved -EPO start to rear its head. Just an observation i made with the latest Euro run.

Maybe your ridge is the mother ship for the -EPO ridges? Maybe your ridge didn't weaken, it just transferred itself further north in to the EPO!

A low east of Hawaii (where your ridge is) usually means warmth in winter for us. So with ridging there you'd expect adverse effects so your theory does have merit.

The AO I don't think will rush negative anytime soon but it is taking hits, so eventually we my win in that department. PNA going back neutral-negative so that definitely spells active weather for us. The guidance is tilting more towards neutral to -EPO in the second half of December. CPC already highlighting the shift of warmth to along the northeast and colder anomalies bleeding from the west. We are not going to suffer the same fate as the Great Lakes or northeast, they are likely the most at risk for a torchy winter.

I mean this El Nino is in the likes of 1877-1982-1997 and if those composites don't scare them I don't know what does. That is if they enjoy cold.

[TheProfessor]

Don't think it got above 32 today, if it did it was between NWS Reports. The Culprit was likely the clouds that stayed much longer than forecasted as folks west and north of me had much warmer temps. It was supposed to be 43 today.