Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[TimeZone]

It now shows the warm tongue, or does not show it? Little confused.

-Andrew92

does not show it. Shows a bit of a lingering, but decaying niño with near normal temps in the EPAC MDR. A bit more favorable than before

What would be the implications if that were to verify? I'm a noob.

[Hurricaneman]

It now shows the warm tongue, or does not show it? Little confused.

-Andrew92

does not show it. Shows a bit of a lingering, but decaying niño with near normal temps in the EPAC MDR. A bit more favorable than before

What would be the implications if that were to verify? I'm a noob.

a very active and dangerous hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Andrew92]

a very active and dangerous hurricane season

Not necessarily. 2007 was a classic La Nina and apart from Dean and Felix, didn't have much to offer. 1973 was also very quiet even with a solid La Nina in place after a strong El Nino.

-Andrew92

[Hurricaneman]

a very active and dangerous hurricane season

Not necessarily. 2007 was a classic La Nina and apart from Dean and Felix, didn't have much to offer. 1973 was also very quiet even with a solid La Nina in place after a strong El Nino.

-Andrew92

The thing is that 2007 had warm waters in the EPAC MDR which caused shear in the MDR and GOM which is the same as 1973 which the new CFS says that that area will be around normal to slightly below normal which would cause less shear than those years

Another year with a Warm EPAC MDR was 2013 which is one of the reasons that 2013 was pretty dead with all the vertical shear

2005 was a strange one with little to no MDR activity because if the EPAC MDR being warm but everywhere else went gangbusters so that may be something to watch for in 2016 especially if the Atlantic SSTS are really warm throughout

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Andrew92]

Just reviewed 2007 again and I see what you are saying, but the warm anomalies just weren't very strong off of Mexico that year. And I took another look as well at 1973, and still see cool anomalies throughout the tropical EPAC. I will grant, I am extremely intrigued about why that year after the way it did.

I am well aware of EPAC MDR anomalies after much discussion with Alyono and a few other members, though.

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC MDR wasn't warm in 2007 and 2013. A 1973/2007 repeat is a third option, along with a 1998/2010 repeat and a 1983 repeat for next year IMO

Also, 2013's inactivity is AMO related.

[Hurricaneman]

Just reviewed 2007 again and I see what you are saying, but the warm anomalies just weren't very strong off of Mexico that year. And I took another look as well at 1973, and still see cool anomalies throughout the tropical EPAC. I will grant, I am extremely intrigued about why that year after the way it did.

I am well aware of EPAC MDR anomalies after much discussion with Alyono and a few other members, though.

-Andrew92

Probably why 2013 was so dead in terms of development and mainenance of storms also and there wasn't much MDR activity in 2005 due to that but 26 storms outside the MDR near land which made things make landfall due to forming near land for the most part

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

a very active and dangerous hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

More like an average to slightly above average one

[TimeZone]

a very active and dangerous hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

More like an average to slightly above average one

Slightly above average might as well be hyperactive with how these past few seasons have worked out...

I'm not prepared to predict next Season this early though personally.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Good read from Dr. Masters,

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... tion-marks

[Alyono]

EC is showing somewhat higher than normal pressures for the kickoff of the Atlantic season. Not as high as last season, however.

[Ntxw]

EC is showing somewhat higher than normal pressures for the kickoff of the Atlantic season. Not as high as last season, however.

Also CFSv2 isn't hinting at a La Nina as it was before. More holding onto Neutral and maybe even warm neutral with the eastern Pacific above normal. Something similar look to 1983 at this very early stage.

[Andrew92]

EC is showing somewhat higher than normal pressures for the kickoff of the Atlantic season. Not as high as last season, however.

Also CFSv2 isn't hinting at a La Nina as it was before. More holding onto Neutral and maybe even warm neutral with the eastern Pacific above normal. Something similar look to 1983 at this very early stage.

I thought I remember a graphic that CFSv2 showed warm anomalies in July of this year off the coast and throughout the EPAC MDR. I know it was from about a month ago, but I'd be intrigued to find out if it is similar at all, or if for a different period.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

I thought I remember a graphic that CFSv2 showed warm anomalies in July of this year off the coast and throughout the EPAC MDR. I know it was from about a month ago, but I'd be intrigued to find out if it is similar at all, or if for a different period.

-Andrew92

Are you talking about the +PDO (warm phase) persistence/prediction? CFSv2 maintains the +PDO look through summer of this year.





1998 and 2010 flipped to -PDO pretty hard with the ensuing Nina's. 1983 went to a weaker Nina but held on to the +PDO throughout

PDO Source: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Andrew92]

I think it was pretty close to what you just shared. Though I think one model output, maybe the NCEP (unless that's the same as CFSv2) had one with warm anomalies at the Equator off the coast of South America, with more pronounced cool anomalies further west. Or maybe I'm not remembering things quite right.

In any event, it is similar to what I saw. Certainly a start to a La Nina, but still a warm event. I know I may be sounding like a broken record, but this is still eerie close to the 1959 setup in the EPAC MDR. It would also be quite close, maybe even closer, to 1992. Those two years, as well as 1983, remain the analogs to beat for comparison if this indeed plays out. I just think the overall Atlantic activity in 2015 suggests the active period is still going on. 1959 was in an active period, but 1983 and 1992 were not.

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack also blogged last month that La Nina may not really come out until 2017, though he also admitted it could be sooner.

-Andrew92

[Alyono]

CFS showing STRONG easterlies in the Caribbean this year

Would not be surprised to have ZERO storms in the MDR, including the Caribbean portion of the MDR

[WPBWeather]

CFS showing STRONG easterlies in the Caribbean this year

Would not be surprised to have ZERO storms in the MDR, including the Caribbean portion of the MDR

Now that's a first vote in the no storms in the MDR for 2016 side.

[ninel conde]

aug 2016

[Andrew92]

The latest projected image for August 2016 above is VERY similar to 1959 in the EPAC and CPAC. Classic La Nina at the Equator with warm anomalies in the EPAC MDR. Only difference, projected warm anomalies are a bit weaker than they were in 1959. Still, not a very favorable setup in the tropical Atlantic for much development if that holds.

-Andrew92

[hurricanetrack]

I don't know - this map from 2005 - in early August, looks a lot like the map above from Levi's site. Never going to have a perfect match but look, cool along Equator, warm in the EPAC and warm in the Atlantic, very similar to the map above.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 2.2005.gif