Texas Winter 2015-2016

[aggiecutter]

MOUNT VERNON, Texas (AP) - Powerful thunderstorms in East Texas have caused some damage and injured at least two residents of a badly damaged home.

The storms Saturday afternoon brought strong winds and reports of tornadoes.

Chief Deputy Chris Mars of the Franklin County Sheriff's Department said the shattered house where the two were injured north of Winnsboro, about 95 miles northeast of Dallas. There was no immediate word on their condition.

About 40 miles to the south, in Lindale, a storm damaged about 50 homes. Deputy Smith County Fire Marshal Eric Lowry said six had major damage. No injuries were reported, but Mayor Robert Nelson issued a disaster declaration for the city.

The mayor urged people to avoid the damage area.

The areas were under tornado warnings at the time of the damage.

[Brent]

Stop the presses...

[TheProfessor]

Apparently Southwest Kansas is about to get a heck of a snowstorm

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the severe weather threat is diminshing per the latest SPC thinking.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555...

VALID 130540Z - 130615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF WW 555
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TX...WITH THE REMAINING VALID PART OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 555 BEING
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A NEW SEVERE
TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...AT 0525Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX /25 SSW SPS TO 30
WSW MWL/...AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TX BRUSH COUNTRY. SOME
INCREASE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG MOST OF THE FULL EXTENT
OF THIS LINE OF STORMS WHICH REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTWARD-
MOVING PACIFIC FRONT. THIS INCREASE MAY BE DUE TO 1/ INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SPREADING EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS
CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
2/ A RESIDUAL NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL OK TO SOUTH TX. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF
THIS LINE HAVE INDICATED A DECELERATION TO 35 KT WITH THE PORTION
MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND EVEN SLOWER /25-30 KT/ WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WFO-FWD COUNTY WARNING
AREA...AND SOUTH TX. AT THIS TIME...TRENDS AND CURRENT THINKING
SUGGEST A SEVERE WIND GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AS THE COVERAGE OF A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..PETERS.. 12/13/2015


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 28920031 29640016 30149986 30689945 31239900 32019873
33319869 33879881 34319914 34779959 34979909 34939844
34569797 33659771 32229756 31049768 29819816 29119866
28649937 28920031

[TarrantWx]

The line seems to be strengthening to me. I'm curious to see what the interaction will be with the cells ahead of the line merging with the main line. It seems to be driving the uptick in intensity.

[Brent]

This is very windy even away from the line... not much else... Channel 11 has been rolling for awhile now while the other channels are largely asleep(did catch NBC 5 doing a brief cut-in)

Haven't seen any severe gusts... but a lot up in the 50 mph range.

[weatherdude1108]

Heavy rain and wind gusts pounded on the house just after 2am for a good 30 to 40 minutes. No lightning or thunder AT ALL with this squall line, which is odd. Dropped from the 70s to the 40s, where it should be in December!

[Ntxw]

Quite the winds and rain going on out there, feels colder than some time ago.

The Aleutian low was analyzed by the wpc maps at 924mb which I believe ties the Nuri bomb.

[Ralph's Weather]

Quite the winds and rain going on out there, feels colder than some time ago.

The Aleutian low was analyzed by the wpc maps at 924mb which I believe ties the Nuri bomb.

Crazy to have this in consecutive years. This should start the month long process of displacing the PV. It has been a while since we have had an extended -AO.

[weatherdude1108]

We got 40 to 50 mph wind gusts and 1.28 inches of rain since 2am this morning. And it's 50 degrees according to my station!

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center was in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning part of Travis County early this morning and it verified. Lost a huge part of an old oak tree in the backyard, unfortunately. We had wind gusts 60 mph or so. Lots of limbs down and minor wind damage in the 'hood as well. We picked up 2.02" of rain in about 3 hours. Quite the storm as it only had high winds and heavy rain. Didn't see one flash of lightning.

[TarrantWx]

The Dallas Morning News has an excellent article about the potential danger that the Lewisville Dam poses.

To quote, "With a full reservoir behind it, a 65-foot-tall flood wave traveling 34 mph would quickly inundate a wide swath of Lewisville, Coppell, Carrollton, Farmers Branch, Irving, Las Colinas and other communities bordering the Trinity River.

The wave would sweep everything in its path — the Lewisville dump, water treatment plants, LBJ Freeway, the Bush Turnpike, Interstate 35E, the State Highway 121 Tollway, Love Field, the Hospital District, office complexes, senior citizen centers, shelters, schools, playgrounds and 53,000 other structures.

Like a tsunami, the wave would submerge downtown Dallas in roughly 50 feet of water, the Corps estimates, causing more than $21 billion in property damage, before continuing south down the Trinity River toward the Gulf of Mexico."

http://interactives.dallasnews.com/2015/lewisville-dam/

[dhweather]

So far, this "winter" has perpetually been two weeks out......

[TarrantWx]

Meanwhile, in the Panhandle...

[TheProfessor]

The Dallas Morning News has an excellent article about the potential danger that the Lewisville Dam poses.

To quote, "With a full reservoir behind it, a 65-foot-tall flood wave traveling 34 mph would quickly inundate a wide swath of Lewisville, Coppell, Carrollton, Farmers Branch, Irving, Las Colinas and other communities bordering the Trinity River.

The wave would sweep everything in its path — the Lewisville dump, water treatment plants, LBJ Freeway, the Bush Turnpike, Interstate 35E, the State Highway 121 Tollway, Love Field, the Hospital District, office complexes, senior citizen centers, shelters, schools, playgrounds and 53,000 other structures.

Like a tsunami, the wave would submerge downtown Dallas in roughly 50 feet of water, the Corps estimates, causing more than $21 billion in property damage, before continuing south down the Trinity River toward the Gulf of Mexico."

http://interactives.dallasnews.com/2015/lewisville-dam/

How strong is the Dam? Could it withstand a direct hit from the strongest of twisters? (300mph+) Either one would be a nightmare scenario for the Eastern Metro, both together would look like the end of the world.

[weatherdude1108]

The Portastorm Weather Center was in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning part of Travis County early this morning and it verified. Lost a huge part of an old oak tree in the backyard, unfortunately. We had wind gusts 60 mph or so. Lots of limbs down and minor wind damage in the 'hood as well. We picked up 2.02" of rain in about 3 hours. Quite the storm as it only had high winds and heavy rain. Didn't see one flash of lightning.

Sorry about your tree Porta.
The line was isolated in its severity it looked like.

We had tree branches down all over in this neighborhood back in May the week of Memorial Day (that Friday of that week) from a squall line in middle of night. But no damage further east and south.

[wxman57]

So far, this "winter" has perpetually been two weeks out......


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

I think I'd trust the 384hr GFS panel THIS time.

[Brent]

So far, this "winter" has perpetually been two weeks out......

The 18z GFS has a major blowtorch for most of the east leading up to Christmas(Chicago is in the 60s on Christmas Eve morning )... a front comes through here on Christmas Eve bringing it back towards average for Christmas Day while some areas on the southeast coast could approach 80 on Christmas Day...

I'm not impressed with this pattern at all... we're not even building up snow cover upstream really.

[Ralph's Weather]

Lindale and Franklin County tornadoes both rated EF-2.

[Brent]

Warm Christmas anyone?