WPAC: MELOR - Post-Tropical

[ejeraldmc]

I'm in Batangas. It seems to be veering up north to here.

Where are you exactly in Batangas? And how is the weather in your area?

Lipa City

Heavy rain, but not really that windy

[dexterlabio]

Video taken in Laiya, Batangas. Credits to the owner you captured this three hours ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ21ICiLS9Y

[dexterlabio]

I don't know if I'm seeing things but it looks like coastal Batangas is about to feel the brunt of Melor. Looks to be already exiting Mindoro at the moment.

[euro6208]

Interesting stats.

Melor at 125 knots peak (Although it could be stronger than that) is the strongest typhoon this late of the year since STY Faxai back in Dec 23, 2001 when it peaked at 155 knots.

The throne still belongs to STY Paka back in Dec 1997.

[dexterlabio]

Eye/center seems to be over water.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME COMPLETELY CLOUD-FILLED AS
TY 28W TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MINDORO. THE STRUCTURE HAS
DEGRADED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND AS INFLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BEEN FORCED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS CENTRAL
TERRAIN OF MINDORO. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THE LINKAGE TO MID-LATITUDE FLOW DECREASES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT THE 150600Z SYNOPTIC TIME IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IN MSI. TY 28W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE LEVELED OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AS TY 28W MOVES BACK OVER WATER, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF REORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN KEPT HIGH BUT ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE BEGINNING OF A
NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, LENDING TO A
SLOW DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH TAU 36, WITH AN ACCELERATING TREND AS
THE COLD SURGE STRENGTHENS.
C. TY MELOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE COLD SURGE
FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DUE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
STEERING FLOW MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Latest update with JMA at 80kt and JTWC at 105kt.

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1527 MELOR (1527)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 13.2N 120.6E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 13.2N 119.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 171200UTC 09.5N 115.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE SW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 181200UTC 06.4N 111.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE SW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 191200UTC 05.0N 109.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
120HF 201200UTC 04.6N 108.1E 300NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY =

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 151215132145
2015121512 28W MELOR 017 01 305 07 SATL 060
T000 137N 1205E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 142N 1197E 100 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 141N 1189E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 133N 1181E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 119N 1166E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 082N 1123E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 059N 1098E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 017
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE CORE WINDS AND A COMPLETE LOSS OF
THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY 28W HAS MOVED OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST THREE HOURS INTO A REGION OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD SURGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
CURRENTLY AT MODERATE LEVELS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND HAS BEEN
INCREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF INFLOW OVER
LAND, INCREASING VWS AND COOL, DRY, NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON HAVE CAUSED THE OBSERVED WEAKENING
IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TY 28W. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
FOR TY 28W REMAINS THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
BEYOND TAU 24, TY 28W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS WEAKENING FROM
INCREASING VWS AND IMPACTS FROM THE COLD SURGE SHIFT THE STEERING
PATTERN IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE
FRICTIONAL IMPACTS OF CROSSING OVER MINDORO ARE LESSENED AND THE
SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SCS.
C. TY MELOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE COLD SURGE
FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DUE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
STEERING FLOW MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Structure appears to have taken a more substantial hit this time around.

[wxman57]

That's no 105kt typhoon (JTWC). May not even be a typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That's no 105kt typhoon (JTWC). May not even be a typhoon.

Obs from people over Bantangas are reporting violent conditions with strong gusty winds. Typhoon force gusts with whistling are reported as far north as Imus, Cavite. No reports are coming out from Mindoro, since power and communications are cut off.

[dexterlabio]

^we can't confirm if those wind gusts are of typhoon strength. I think this will now be more of a rain event than what the provinces of Mindoro and Bicol region have experienced.

[dexterlabio]

Structure appears to have taken a more substantial hit this time around.

Where could the center possibly be? Looks like the low level center has detached from the MLC...

[1900hurricane]

I don't think Melor decoupled or anything, but the core did take a beating from the land interaction. IR still shows a stacked system that is generating some very deep convection.

[1900hurricane]

The center actually looks like it's going up the west coast of Luzon now.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1527 MELOR (1527)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 13.4N 120.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 12.6N 118.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 171800UTC 08.7N 114.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE SW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 181800UTC 05.7N 110.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE SW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 191800UTC 04.9N 108.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
120HF 201800UTC 04.7N 107.5E 300NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z in at 85kt with movement NW at 6kt, continued weakening expected with decrease to TS strength within 24hr:

WTPN51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 151215201931
2015121518 28W MELOR 018 01 310 06 SATL 045
T000 141N 1200E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 143N 1195E 065 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 137N 1189E 050 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 122N 1177E 040 R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 102N 1157E 030
T072 065N 1110E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 018

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 151800Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND A 151756Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 28W HAS EMERGED INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IS ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO INCREASE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND
ANTICIPATED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND SLOW AS IT
ENTERS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND
RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY, AND TURN SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AFTER TAU 12. STRONG VWS
VALUES AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 28W AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD
SURGE, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE./=

[supercane]

Rapid weakening continues with JMA's 0Z estimate of 65kt barely a typhoon.
WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1527 MELOR (1527)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 14.1N 120.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 12.6N 118.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180000UTC 08.7N 114.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE SW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 190000UTC 05.5N 110.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[supercane]

And a look at the latest trackfile shows Melor weakening 50kt over the past 24hr, down to 75kt at 0Z.
28W MELOR 151216 0000 14.3N 119.5E WPAC 75 967
28W MELOR 151215 1800 14.1N 120.0E WPAC 85 959
28W MELOR 151215 1200 13.7N 120.5E WPAC 105 944
28W MELOR 151215 0600 13.3N 121.1E WPAC 115 937
28W MELOR 151215 0000 13.0N 121.6E WPAC 125 929

[supercane]

WTPN51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 151216020936
2015121600 28W MELOR 019 01 290 05 SATL 040
T000 143N 1195E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 143N 1193E 060 R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 132N 1189E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 110N 1171E 035
T048 091N 1150E 030
T072 059N 1107E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 019
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 160000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR)
/WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 152350Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND A 152237Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 28W IS MOVING INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DE-COUPLE, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO
INCREASE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY MELOR WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A SECOND RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER TAU 12. HIGH VWS VALUES AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 28W AS IT BECOMES FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD SURGE, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPQ20 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1527 MELOR (1527) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 14.4N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 12.0N 118.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE SSW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180000UTC 08.7N 114.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE SW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 190000UTC 05.5N 110.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1527 MELOR (1527)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS FAIR.
TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR)
/WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
ASSESS AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUICKLY COMING APART WITH THE INTER-
ACTION OF THE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE. THE TRACK HAS
TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS STARTING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST
OF LUZON. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN WORSENING WITH STRONG
LEVELS (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUILDING OVER
TS 28W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS A BALANCE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS
SUFFERED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE COLD DRY AIR FROM COASTAL CHINA
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, BUT
AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTION, THE STEERING INFLUENCE HAS STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WITH A
WEAK LOOPING FEATURE AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS FROM THE DEEP
LAYERED STR TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
B. TS MELOR WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A SECOND RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER TAU 12. HIGH VWS VALUES AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TS 28W AS IT BECOMES FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD SURGE, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK, BUT NONE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE RECENT TURN TO THE NORTH IN
THE PAST SIX HOURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR THE SOUTH-
WESTWARD TURN AND THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING FOR THE LLCC,
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN