WPAC: 29W - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 150912

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (SE OF PALAU)

B. 15/0900Z

C. 6.07N

D. 140.43E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

TXPQ22 KNES 150917
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 15/0830Z

C. 5.5N

D. 140.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY CIRCULAR CLOUD
LINES, PROXIMITY LESS THAN 1.25 DG FROM CONVECTION SIZE LESS THAN 1.5
DG. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[stormstrike]

It's amazing how JMA forecasts this to be a 45-kt storm in 48 hrs (according to their weather chart)

Models only develop this as a weak depression/storm.

[dexterlabio]

^You can check if the 48hr forecast weather map is the latest or not (at the lower left corner of the graphic). I really want to say that I do not expect this to become a stronger system due to its appearance right now and lesser model support.....however look at what happened with Melor.. I guess I'm just going to sit and watch..

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 06.2N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 07.2N 135.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Earlier discussion from NWS Guam:
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA DISCUSSION.
THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE AREA IS INVEST 97W...NEAR
6N141E AND STILL THE SUBJECT OF A JTWC TCFA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SLOW TO
DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS...AS 97W MOVES BY
KOROR WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH YAP AND KOROR WILL SEE
INCREASING SHOWERS AND WIND. ASCAT DATA SHOW STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 25 KNOTS. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS PRECEDE THE STORM WELL TO
THE WEST...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND NEAR AND JUST NORTH
OF THE CENTER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND.

ASCAT AND ALTIMETRY DATA SHOW THAT WINDS AND SEAS ARE HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT NEAR YAP. CONDITIONS WILL SIMILARLY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT AT KOROR WEDNESDAY.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 06.4N 138.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 08.0N 133.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[1900hurricane]

This pass is a little old now, but it looks like much of the convection is more related to the monsoon trough 97W is embedded within rather than it's circulation.

[wxman57]

Looks like an open wave on this Himawari-8 day/night loop from the Australia BoM:

http://satview.bom.gov.au/

[1900hurricane]

I agree, definitely open now. Nice link, by the way!

[supercane]

NWS Guam's 0Z AFD:
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...INVEST AREA 97W...REMAINS THE SUBJECT
OF A JTWC TCFA. THIS MORNING IT WAS LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KOROR NEAR 6.6N138E AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FOR YAP AND KOROR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODELS STILL TAKE 97W VERY NEAR KOROR
LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED WITH
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THIS SYSTEM. IR SATELLITE SHOWS YAP GETTING THE BULK OF THE
WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH MORE WEATHER UPSTREAM OF THE ISLAND.
KOROR HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ACTION...AND SATELLITE
ANIMATION SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE THE CASE MUCH OF TODAY. FOR
NOW...YAP SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT PALAU...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND KEEP A CLOSE WATCH FOR ANY SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF
97W.

ASCAT AND ALTIMETRY DATA SHOW THAT WINDS AND SEAS ARE HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR YAP AND KOROR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADS WEST
OR WEST- NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 07.6N 136.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 08.4N 132.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the circulation might have closed off again just to the east of Palau, although it's hard to tell if there are any northerlies on the west side of the circulation under the deeper convection when looking at conventional imagery.



*EDIT: yeah, ASCAT shows it too, although it is very weak.

[supercane]

WTPQ31 RJTD 160000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TD LOCATED AT 07.6N 136.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 160338
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
140 PM CHST WED DEC 16 2015

PMZ161-171-161800-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
140 PM CHST WED DEC 16 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NEAR KOROR BY THIS EVENING...

AT 100 PM...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST
OF KOROR NEAR 7.5N AND 135.5E...MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO KOROR THIS EVENING
NEAR 7 PM CHST.

IN PALAU...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN LIKELY. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AS THE CENTER
PASSES...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES
OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FOR YAP...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 MPH IN SHOWERS.

FOR BOTH PALAU AND YAP...SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE... YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WHEN NECESSARY. THE LATEST YAP AND KOROR COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER FZPQ52 PGUM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
136.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 23 NM EAST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160006Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. THE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITHIN THE CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 160626

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (E OF PALAU)

B. 16/0600Z

C. 7.46N

D. 134.89E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

TXPQ22 KNES 160308
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 16/0230Z

C. 7.3N

D. 136.0E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A LLCC UNDER A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER FIX POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

Still needs some more work to be done...

[euro6208]

Literally all models have lost support of this system. Many takes it through the central and southern Philippines bringing wet and rainy conditions...

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 07.4N 133.2E POOR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 07.9N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[1900hurricane]

RSCAT show the circulation has become a little better defined, but the strongest winds still appear to be tied to the monsoon trough.

[1900hurricane]

Getting another blowup near the center. If this one doesn't maintain itself, 97W is probably out of time.