Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Temps in the mid-70s across Houston now with lots of sunshine. The heck with the fall thread, maybe we should move back to the summer thread?

Unfortunately, I'll be paying for this great December weather come January through April, most likely. I still think we'll have several ice events across southeast Texas this winter - but not this month.

Wxman 57 - Can you share your thoughts on why you think we will have several ice events in SE Texas later this winter? Thanks!

Typically for ice events we need shallow arctic air and the SJT running over the top of the cold air. The arctic air may be coming mid Jan with a SSW event.

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting El Nino blog read here, written four months ago:

http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/c ... groupid=37

The author calls this El Nino a hybrid. Excerpt:

So what is a Hybrid El Nino? It's an El Nino that starts like an analog year El Nino and ends as a different El Nino due to it getting stronger or weaker. This winter starts of like the mega 1982-1983 and end like 2009-2010 at this point. This means places in the East and Southeast get blasted later in the winter and may start off mild and even wet not white. The Southwest will stay wet most of the winter with some breaks by February. As far as the Midwest and Ohio Valley well you start off moisture starved but end up getting a bit snowy and colder come February, The West Coast gets blasted with rain in November and December but the rain drops off a bit by February.

So far that is right on. I think most of have been thinking/hoping that this will eventually shift to a more wintery pattern. I did see that El Nino has started its fall and maybe a bit more rapidly than modeled. If that trend does establish itself and we get a true SSW event then winter does have hope yet.

[wxman57]

Temps in the mid-70s across Houston now with lots of sunshine. The heck with the fall thread, maybe we should move back to the summer thread?

Unfortunately, I'll be paying for this great December weather come January through April, most likely. I still think we'll have several ice events across southeast Texas this winter - but not this month.

Wxman 57 - Can you share your thoughts on why you think we will have several ice events in SE Texas later this winter? Thanks!

The main reason is similar seasons (similar patterns) of the past, particularly in the early 1970s. We had quite a few ice events back then.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just posted GFS ensemble forecasts for temperature anomalies on Christmas & New Year's. Not exactly bitterly cold east of the Rockies.

Christmas:


New Year's:

[gpsnowman]

Ryan Maue just posted GFS ensemble forecasts for temperature anomalies on Christmas & New Year's. Not exactly bitterly cold east of the Rockies.

Christmas:.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTnSEcW4AAMPnm.png

New Year's:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTnSEFWEAI9uH9.png

Ok this is weird. Look to northeast Canada. It does appear a ghost is making a strange appearance on the two maps wxman57 just posted. Does anyone else see this? Spooky. The ghost appears in between the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. That's it, winter is done!! Don't you all see what wxman57 has done??

[Ntxw]

El Nino ate the North Pacific

I think some get too caught up in what kind of El Nino it is. It is a near record Super Nino period. We know this is true, 1997 is the most recent in memory. 2009 is off the table that was a record -AO, we're not going to get that. 1965, 1957, and 1972 is a better bunch with warm Decembers. It is the bulldozer of the block and it is helping to furnace the east coast!

Luckily this is not a 2011-2012, it is ENSO induced. That means as the season goes on the players shuffle accordingly and there is cold air available. It's just out west and NW for the time being.

[Ntxw]

Here are the daily EPO values for roughly the last month or so. This probably explains the weather quite a bit temperature wise

Code: Select all

2015 11 11  128.38
2015 11 12  167.76
2015 11 13  198.34
2015 11 14  159.16
2015 11 15  126.95
2015 11 16  140.82
2015 11 17  179.52
2015 11 18  104.54
2015 11 19    3.80
2015 11 20  -39.45
2015 11 21  -64.11
2015 11 22  -83.38
2015 11 23 -119.15
2015 11 24 -175.60
2015 11 25 -210.80
2015 11 26 -205.72
2015 11 27 -143.95
2015 11 28 -136.50
2015 11 29 -123.55
2015 11 30  -33.25
2015 12 01   32.91
2015 12 02   45.16
2015 12 03   86.42
2015 12 04  127.56
2015 12 05  102.18
2015 12 06  130.56
2015 12 07  210.71
2015 12 08  231.63
2015 12 09  241.78
2015 12 10  193.28
2015 12 11  118.79
2015 12 12  105.06
2015 12 13   76.54

[orangeblood]

Check out the latest Scripps forecast....Could we possibly be looking at a Super La Nina next fall/winter!! It appears this Super El Nino is about to undergo a major free fall...

[Ntxw]

There is, per modeled, cold air pooling in our source region late in the period should the pattern become conducive to delivery


East coast is still baking +10s +11s +12s for the month. Even with a brief cooldown they shoot right back up to more record warmth. The anomalies are absurd, they will need record cold in Jan and Feb just to erase the winter avg temp down to normal. Needless to say an above normal winter up there is probable.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just posted GFS ensemble forecasts for temperature anomalies on Christmas & New Year's. Not exactly bitterly cold east of the Rockies.

Christmas:.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTnSEcW4AAMPnm.png

New Year's:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTnSEFWEAI9uH9.png

Ok this is weird. Look to northeast Canada. It does appear a ghost is making a strange appearance on the two maps wxman57 just posted. Does anyone else see this? Spooky. The ghost appears in between the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. That's it, winter is done!! Don't you all see what wxman57 has done??

I noticed that immediately when I saw the two images. Had to zoom in to see what it was.

[gboudx]

It's the ghost of Winters Past.

[weatherdude1108]

Ryan Maue just posted GFS ensemble forecasts for temperature anomalies on Christmas & New Year's. Not exactly bitterly cold east of the Rockies.

Christmas:.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTnSEcW4AAMPnm.png

New Year's:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTnSEFWEAI9uH9.png

Ok this is weird. Look to northeast Canada. It does appear a ghost is making a strange appearance on the two maps wxman57 just posted. Does anyone else see this? Spooky. The ghost appears in between the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. That's it, winter is done!! Don't you all see what wxman57 has done??

I noticed that immediately when I saw the two images. Had to zoom in to see what it was.

I saw that too!

[weatherdude1108]

Check out the latest Scripps forecast....Could we possibly be looking at a Super La Nina next fall/winter!! It appears this Super El Nino is about to undergo a major free fall...

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/ ... 016-09.jpg

OH NOOOOOOOOOOO! Don't bring up that evil girl!

[TheProfessor]

Woo La Nina Winter! I might need to buy my arctic coat after all! Probably won't get to use it this winter though.

[hriverajr]

Well ECMWF finally has some good high pressure building in NW Canada, as well as some strong negative temperature anomalies. Waiting on the latest GFS run to complete. There may be some hope

GFS as well, but more stretched out and not moving much. This is out to ten days, don't bother looking beyond..lol

[Ralph's Weather]

It does look like there could be some very light flurries or sprinkles Thursday evening and night along and mainly north of the Red River. Otherwise the remainder of this week looks dry and cool. Next week looks mild and showery at least until near Christmas. 12Z GFS shows no Arctic outbreaks in the next couple weeks, it does have an end of run Nor'Easter.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, the GFS looks to be trending slightly colder in the Northeast around New Year's day. They will probably need to wait for the first week in January to see any significant change. BTW, I saw that nor'easter too (tau 384!).

[wxman57]

It does look like there could be some very light flurries or sprinkles Thursday evening and night along and mainly north of the Red River. Otherwise the remainder of this week looks dry and cool. Next week looks mild and showery at least until near Christmas. 12Z GFS shows no Arctic outbreaks in the next couple weeks, it does have an end of run Nor'Easter.

I think it will be difficult for any snow to reach the ground, as it will be falling from a mid-level cloud deck and the lower levels will be fairly dry.

[Brent]

Okay... yesterday weatherbug had mid 60s for Christmas Eve which isn't terrible and I can deal with...

today it has 80 on Christmas Eve and 79 on Christmas Day at DFW(the record high for Christmas at DFW is 78)

This is no bueno...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There is, per modeled, cold air pooling in our source region late in the period should the pattern become conducive to delivery

Getting closer or almost right on top of the winter solstice is a big factor in this as well. Really allowing that cold air mass to b uild very quickly