#10142 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:06 am
It is currently 70.3 degrees at my weather station as I awaken this morning. I want to put this in the proper emphasis. Our normal average low temperature for this date is 44 degrees. We are running this morning over 25 degrees above the normal minimum. This is getting beyond ridiculous now. There is a weakening cold front just to our west, which is now passing very slowly through the Suwannee River Basin. There are some scattered showers occuring at this time ahead of that front across the Northeast Florida region. Temps are currently in the mid-upper 40s in the Pandhandle region behind the front. However, this front will barely push through the Jax area later today and stall out as a building ridge from the south will bring this back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
Record high temps look very possible on Thursday as a good warm advection surge will take place out ahead of an deepening upper trough developing across the Eastern CONUS late this week. This will sweep a strong cold front into the peninsula Friday and clearing the Florida Straits by Saturday afternoon.
Latest guidance are indicating lower-mid 30s across the Big Bend/Suwannee River Valley and mid 30s across interior Northeast Florida. I will be watching this closely to see if we can FINALLY measure the first freeze of the season in these parts. The brunt of the coldest air will not head toward the peninsula, with the lowest thicknesses staying just north of the Jax area. The base of the upper trough looks to move over South Carolina on Saturday morning. So, it is possible we may miss out on a freeze this weekend in Jacksonville. It will be a close call.
The real bummer for me is the long range outlook right up to the end of 2015. This brief cool spell we have coming in this weekend will likely be the last of 2015 and possibly even into the start of 2016. Both the GFS and EURO show an unbelievably strong and impressive 500 mb upper level ridge, which will hold firmly in place across most of the Eastern CONUS all next week, including Christmas and even beyond right up to the ringing in of 2016.
This is going to be the dominant weather story you can bank on it. Tropicana, get ready as you will be one busy soul tracking the record heat across the Eastern United States, which is going to be experienced in the days to come. This will also guarantee that many areas will probably record their warmest December on record, including here across the Florida peninsula. We have already had the warmest November on record across the peninsula.
What a super strong El Nino this has been. Simply unbelivable. The indications of course were all there for this El Nino to be significant, but I tell you, in that I never would have thought this Nino would turn out to be so super warm this season.
As we head into January, we keep thinking it will turn stormy and cooler eventually. But, the way it has been so far, I will have to see it to believe it. Also, Old Man Winter, will we finally have you show up buddy? Lol.. Wow. Could we be seeing the winter we never had for 2015-2016?
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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