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NDG
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Re: Florida Weather

#10141 Postby NDG » Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:57 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
NDG wrote:Finally below average temps for next weekend heading for FL, looks like 30s for lows for north FL, 40s for central FL and 50s for S FL for both Saturday and Sunday mornings. But it will be a quick visit as temps return back to average and eventual above average Christmas week as both the NAO and AO head back to the positive regime to end the month.


As of right now the NWS Miami is forecasting lows 60's for lows for this coming weekend. Here is the forecast for my area. Though highs will only be in the low 70's. I am looking forward to this cool down.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.09620095214845&lat=26.284645587077918#.Vm8F3NIrLs0


I think there's a good chance of SE FL getting down at least into the upper 50s Saturday morning, Sunday morning winds switch really fast in S FL from the Ocean temps will not get down into the 50s that morning.
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#10142 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:06 am

It is currently 70.3 degrees at my weather station as I awaken this morning. I want to put this in the proper emphasis. Our normal average low temperature for this date is 44 degrees. We are running this morning over 25 degrees above the normal minimum. This is getting beyond ridiculous now. There is a weakening cold front just to our west, which is now passing very slowly through the Suwannee River Basin. There are some scattered showers occuring at this time ahead of that front across the Northeast Florida region. Temps are currently in the mid-upper 40s in the Pandhandle region behind the front. However, this front will barely push through the Jax area later today and stall out as a building ridge from the south will bring this back north as a warm front on Wednesday.

Record high temps look very possible on Thursday as a good warm advection surge will take place out ahead of an deepening upper trough developing across the Eastern CONUS late this week. This will sweep a strong cold front into the peninsula Friday and clearing the Florida Straits by Saturday afternoon.

Latest guidance are indicating lower-mid 30s across the Big Bend/Suwannee River Valley and mid 30s across interior Northeast Florida. I will be watching this closely to see if we can FINALLY measure the first freeze of the season in these parts. The brunt of the coldest air will not head toward the peninsula, with the lowest thicknesses staying just north of the Jax area. The base of the upper trough looks to move over South Carolina on Saturday morning. So, it is possible we may miss out on a freeze this weekend in Jacksonville. It will be a close call.

The real bummer for me is the long range outlook right up to the end of 2015. This brief cool spell we have coming in this weekend will likely be the last of 2015 and possibly even into the start of 2016. Both the GFS and EURO show an unbelievably strong and impressive 500 mb upper level ridge, which will hold firmly in place across most of the Eastern CONUS all next week, including Christmas and even beyond right up to the ringing in of 2016.

This is going to be the dominant weather story you can bank on it. Tropicana, get ready as you will be one busy soul tracking the record heat across the Eastern United States, which is going to be experienced in the days to come. This will also guarantee that many areas will probably record their warmest December on record, including here across the Florida peninsula. We have already had the warmest November on record across the peninsula.

What a super strong El Nino this has been. Simply unbelivable. The indications of course were all there for this El Nino to be significant, but I tell you, in that I never would have thought this Nino would turn out to be so super warm this season.

As we head into January, we keep thinking it will turn stormy and cooler eventually. But, the way it has been so far, I will have to see it to believe it. Also, Old Man Winter, will we finally have you show up buddy? Lol.. Wow. Could we be seeing the winter we never had for 2015-2016?
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Re: Florida Weather

#10143 Postby Sanibel » Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:52 pm

Sea fog here. You can feel the balmy humidity.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10144 Postby NDG » Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:11 pm

There go your hopes for your first freeze, northjaxpro, per the latest 12z GFS run.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10145 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 15, 2015 4:53 pm

NDG wrote:There go your hopes for your first freeze, northjaxpro, per the latest 12z GFS run.


Yeah NDG I saw the 12Z GFS run and it has come in 3-5 degrees warmer than last night's run. I am not surprised by this latest turn of events because for one the brunt of the coldest air will be well north of Jax. Also, there is no snowpack whatsoever across the Eastern CONUS. So these polar airmasses can modify quickly, and the initial cold bias shown in previous runs may have been too aggresive.
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#10146 Postby psyclone » Tue Dec 15, 2015 5:10 pm

Freeze or not this will be a shock to the system since we're all accustomed to such warm weather. 2 days and two nights of chill is on tap..
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#10147 Postby gatorcane » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:02 pm

Well I know it is warm, but not this warm! NWS Tampa graphics have a bug at the moment:

Image
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#10148 Postby psyclone » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:07 pm

Gang, take a look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks and ask yourself if you've ever seen such a vast expanse covered by 90% above normal chances...I haven't. shorts and flip flops for Christmas look like a good bet and at this rate New Year's too.
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Re:

#10149 Postby gatorcane » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:11 pm

psyclone wrote:Gang, take a look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks and ask yourself if you've ever seen such a vast expanse covered by 90% above normal chances...I haven't. shorts and flip flops for Christmas look like a good bet and at this rate New Year's too.


Check out how much above normal the Eastern half of the country is on Christmas Eve according to the 18Z GFS that just ran. Mid-60s for parts of the Northeast U.S!?! If it verifies, I would suspect a lot of records getting shattered!

Image

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Re: Florida Weather

#10150 Postby NDG » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:39 am

As the week has gone by the chances of SE FL getting into the 50s has gone down the hill, the models have come to reality that there's no snow cover to our north and that the NAO & AO positive regime is not a good formula to drive down the core of cold air down the peninsula.
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#10151 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:49 am

Temp currently at 70.2 degrees at my locale. It feels like the middle of August than the middle of December right now. This is crazy warm. Today, it is a good possibility that we may set two record maximums. The record high for today at the Jax NWS office is 81 degrees. The all-time record high temp ever for December is 84 degrees.

Both of these records could go down today as strong southerly flow ahead of the cold front will bring strong warm air advection across the peninsula today and tonight. A lot will depend upon if the sun breaks out for a good duration of time before the clouds and storms erupt later today if the records are achieved. Just unbelievable! I have had enough of this warmth and record heat in what should be the coldest time of the year.

Also, the SPC has placed our region under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening as the cold front pushes through the region. I will be monitoring this closely as the day progresses as the dynamics are in place today for the potential of severe weather.

Latest guidance has 36 degrees for the low temperature here for Saturday morning. Looks like we will miss getting the first freeze of the season here. I will take this cool weather this weekend gladly, but like a blink of an eye, this cool shot will be a distant memory by Monday as thw warm-up commences again for the start of Christmas week. This seemingly may be the only cool weather we may see for possibly the next 2 weeks and possibly longer.

Long range model runs still showing a massive upper ridge across much of the Eastern United States right through Christmas, and leading up to the ringing in of 2016. We will likely going to be seeing lots of record warmth across much of the nation if the long range models are right. Such a bummer for folks like me who like it cold!! I am so close to giving up on winter this season. :roll:
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#10152 Postby psyclone » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:11 am

NWS has caved and bumped my Saturday high from 61/62 all the way up to 68.
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#10153 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:13 am

I every once and awhile really enjoy reflecting back in time on amazing weather events experienced in my lifetime. One of the most amazing weather events ever was the historic Arctic outbreak, and the equally historic Southeast U.S. Winter Coastal Storm of Christmas 1989, more specifically Dec 22-24, 1989. This gave Jax our only white Christmas ever!! Set all kinds of records from North Carolina south to Northeast FL for snowfall and record breaking cold temps all the way down to Key West. I remember it like yesterday. Measured 1.5 inches of snow at my locale during that event. Temperatures stayed below freezing in Jax for 40 consecutive hours during that event. Temps stayed in the low-mid 20s here during most of that event here in Jax. The 1993 March Superstorm is the only other winter event that surpasses this one in my lifetime.

I have been reduced on reflecting back in time since we are having absolutely no winter at all so far this season :roll:

But, a look back on this incredible event approaching 26 years ago.


http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#10154 Postby psyclone » Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:10 am

I remember December of 89 well. I was growing up in northern ohio at the time. we had deep snow and -15 to -20 temps. I also recall the remainder of the winter turning warm and staying that way. I was a student at Kent State during the 1993 superstorm. we were west of the heaviest snow but still experienced a true blizzard with close to a foot of new snow and winds gusting over 50mph. I have never observed such dry powdery snow so late in the season. we had snow drifts of 10-12' after the event as we already had a deep snowpack on the ground. snow reached the roof of our dorm. good times..
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#10155 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:37 am

:uarrow: yeah psyclone, excellent point made in that winter of 1989-1990 did end up being warmer than average the rest of that season after the Deep Freeze of Christmas '89. I remember we only experienced just 4 freezes the rest of that winter season here following that historic cold outbreak and snow.

It makes you wonder if Mother Nature can do a similar flip of the script this season, uh? Unfortunately, that does not look likely to happen with this incredibly warm El Nino occuring this season.
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#10156 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:52 am

BTW, temperature is already at 78.6 degrees with the sun out bright at this hour. The records I referenced in my posts earlier on this page are going to be set today based on current trends. Thunderstorms eill move here after about 4 p.m. this afternoon.
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#10157 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:30 pm

DISCLAIMER:

STRICTLY FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY..... LOL.. :lol: GFS can easily kill this idea below this far out and probably will given how this extremely warm EL Nino has trended all this season to this juncture. Heck, you all know I am desperate for cold weather looking at model runs 2 full weeks out, something I regularly always discourage!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


This is extremely long range, but the latest 12Z GFS run going out to New Year's Day morning is showing a very deep upper level trough, bringing an arctic air mass (1040 mb Polar High) dropping down into the Ohio Valley and a developing coastal storm off the North Carolina coast. This long range run sinks very cold air deep down into the Florida peninsula, with 540 thickness line coming all the way down into the north central peninsula. If this ever came close to coming into existence 2 weeks out, this would be by far the coldest air mass across the Eastern CONUS of this winter for certain. If anything, at least it potentially could be a sign that this long lasting blowtorch, which has been with us through all of the autumn, and into the early winter to this point may be about to turn off.

Again, this is strictly for entertainment purposes only, but I can be allowed to dream I guess :( that some sort of solution like this can possibly come right atthe start of 2016.
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#10158 Postby gatorcane » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:48 pm

:uarrow:
northjaxpro, yeah that is very cold for the Eastern U.S. and into Florida. Temperature map below: :cold:

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Re: Florida Weather

#10159 Postby FireRat » Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:28 pm

ahhh wishful thinking... :lol:

I miss the cold weather too, it's been like 5 years of above average winters and no sign of this trend ending anytime soon. Florida has really become the land of endless Summer, no kidding! we've only had short episodes of cold in recent years, like last February for example. Really goes to show how special 2010 and 1989 were when it comes to epic cold spells.

Looks like we won't drop below 60 yet again down here in SE FL, except maybe in far western suburbs.
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#10160 Postby psyclone » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:04 pm

don't get sucked into those long range GFS runs. It's bad enough it fools us during tropical season..we can't make it a year-round affair..
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